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Apple Finally Signs Deal With China Mobile for December iPhone Launch
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I am also not so sure about the situation of Verizon or DoCoMo, but for sure you can connect any (unlocked) GSM device to CM's network. No questions asked
. Just buy a prepaid card (contract is not so popular anyway) in a supermarket or any other shop and you are ready to go. Later, you can customize your plan on the CM website if you wish.
Twice now you've said the following:
"Good news for Apple." (I agree... it's a new market for the iPhone... that's never a bad thing)
and
"Everyone on China Mobile who wants an iPhone already has one." (no evidence found)
Your 2nd statement clearly contradicts the 1st.
Why would Apple spend years working on this deal then?
Oh and guess what? If they do have an iPhone on China Mobile already... they are even more likely to buy another iPhone next time without having to go the grey-market route. You don't buy an iPhone once and keep it for the rest of your life... you buy them every couple years or so.
It was good to have the iPhone on all 4 major carriers in the US... and it's even better to have the iPhone on all 3 major carriers in China. This is an absolute win for Apple all-around.
I don't know why you're pooping on this news
BTW... no one expects Apple to sell an iPhone to each one of China Mobile's 700 million customers.
But the more, the merrier
I've found that even after it's prematurely factored into the price, good news wows some people when it hits and gives the stock a boost.
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Those shorting AAPL will frown. There are a few people on MacRumors (not going to name anyone, but it's obvious) who don't own Apple products and hate everything the company does, and my guess is that they follow Apple because they're shorting it.
Well, "everyone" of course is not 100%, and that's why Apple will still sell some aditional milion iPhones with the "now with 3 and 4G enabled!", but it is a very high percentage. But please tell me a reson for the average chinese smarphone user NOT to already have an iPhone if you are in China Mobile, want one and have the money. Why should they have waited for this deal? (that could have come now, 1 year earlier, 2 years later o when the cows begin wearing a lightsaber).
[somehow offtopic] BTW "to be" on a network in China is not the same as USA. Most people use prepaid, and they change the SIM as they change their hairstyle, hehe, to get discounts because they moved to other province. Quite often I get a message or email from some friend saying "I changed my SIM. This is my new number" (and no, it's not a scam ;-)). So, they can change from Unicom to Mobile quite easily also.
More phones sold, for sure (China mobile marketing will help). And finally having 3g and 4g will attract some more people too.
If the official Apple Store in China is "gray market", then you are right ;-)
http://store.apple.com/cn/buy-iphone/iphone5s
Nobody denied that.
I don't think putting things in context is pooping anything.I don't know why you're pooping on this news
You should be glad when people add different perspectives to one topic. Or maybe you would prefer this kind of comments all over the place?:
"Apple FTW. Fandroids are doomed now. Run (or better, lag) for your lives. Next quarter 350 million (being conservative) more iPhones in China. Mwahahahaha!"
Sure?:
woow, that is a lot of subscribers! $$$$ for
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China Mobile will sell A LOT of iPhones
I live in China and I use an iPhone 4s here. China Mobile has 2G service and it sucks!
It's so bad it's not worth using but people still do use iPhones on China Mobile however most people use China Unicom.
When China Mobile has 4G Internet service they will sell a lot of iPhones!
iPhones are very expensive here for the average person but there are so many people who want them this new service is definitely going to increase Apple's market share in China!
Illegitimate vendors are selling iPhones everywhere! You see so many illegitimate Apple stores you just can't believe how they can all make a living. In my city, Kunming, there are at least thirty if not many more!
Chinese people want iPhones! It's a prestige item and the use of China Mobile will really increase Apple sales and market share! This is a fact and indisputable.
The best news I heard today is that they already have the China Mobile system built into the current phones! That means I only have to change my Sim when I come back to the US and I can use GSM FDD-LTE there and TD-LTE in China... once I buy the new phone ...which will be a 6...
I live in China and I use an iPhone 4s here. China Mobile has 2G service and it sucks!
It's so bad it's not worth using but people still do use iPhones on China Mobile however most people use China Unicom.
When China Mobile has 4G Internet service they will sell a lot of iPhones!
iPhones are very expensive here for the average person but there are so many people who want them this new service is definitely going to increase Apple's market share in China!
Illegitimate vendors are selling iPhones everywhere! You see so many illegitimate Apple stores you just can't believe how they can all make a living. In my city, Kunming, there are at least thirty if not many more!
Chinese people want iPhones! It's a prestige item and the use of China Mobile will really increase Apple sales and market share! This is a fact and indisputable.
The best news I heard today is that they already have the China Mobile system built into the current phones! That means I only have to change my Sim when I come back to the US and I can use GSM FDD-LTE there and TD-LTE in China... once I buy the new phone ...which will be a 6...
Well, "everyone" of course is not 100%, and that's why Apple will still sell some aditional milion iPhones with the "now with 3 and 4G enabled!", but it is a very high percentage. But please tell me a reson for the average chinese smarphone user NOT to already have an iPhone if you are in China Mobile, want one and have the money. Why should they have waited for this deal? (that could have come now, 1 year earlier, 2 years later o when the cows begin wearing a lightsaber).
This again?
So you're sticking with the statement "if someone hasn't gotten an iPhone on China Mobile by now... they never will..."
That's pretty bold. Oh well... at least we know where we each stand:
- I think Apple millions upon millions of people will buy iPhones sold by China Mobile.
- You think "people would already gotten an iPhone if they wanted one..."
You even said China Mobile marketing will help... and the 3G/4G network will be a benefit too.
So that's why I don't understand why you still believe the iPhone has already peaked on China Mobile (before it's even been officially released!)
I said "not 100%", and "average user" (not all users). I also said "Apple will still sell some additional milion iPhones" and, as you quoted, that CM marketing and 3/4G will help to make those additional sales.
So... where did I say iPhone has peaked in China??
Also, I never said they will never get an iPhone from CM. People will renew their iPhones from time to time, as they would without the CM deal. IF China mobile offers any advantage, maybe they will renew it with CM. Otherwise, they will buy from Apple (better service), or from a cheaper grey market dealer.
And I ask again, why should most CM subscribers have waited for this deal to get their iPhone? They could buy it from the Apple Store (China) at any time. Only drawback is 2G data only (GPRS-EDGE) on CM, but most users have very small (30-200MB) or no data plan, so that is not so important.
Since we're making predictions...
Thursday market close: AAPL +$12 $577
Friday market close: AAPL -$12 $565
2013 close: $535 (due to slight broader market decline)
The China mobile deal is sorta like an iphone release. Ramp up to release, and decline after release day. "buy the rumor, sell the news"
But seriously, (where's a cocktail napkin) it's 700 million people, 120 million can afford an iPhone, 20 million already have one. If 20% of the remaining 100 mil people buy one, it's a 20 million iPhone bump for Apple. If 5 million of those happen in q1 2014, it's a 13% jump in total world iPhone sales. Apple makes 60% of it's profit from iPhones, so Apple's overall profits would increase only 7.8% for q1 2014.
Assume half of this future is already built into the stock at $565, so we get 3.4% more between now and January 25th, which would be $584.
Thoughts?
Thursday market close: AAPL +$12 $577
Friday market close: AAPL -$12 $565
2013 close: $535 (due to slight broader market decline)
The China mobile deal is sorta like an iphone release. Ramp up to release, and decline after release day. "buy the rumor, sell the news"
But seriously, (where's a cocktail napkin) it's 700 million people, 120 million can afford an iPhone, 20 million already have one. If 20% of the remaining 100 mil people buy one, it's a 20 million iPhone bump for Apple. If 5 million of those happen in q1 2014, it's a 13% jump in total world iPhone sales. Apple makes 60% of it's profit from iPhones, so Apple's overall profits would increase only 7.8% for q1 2014.
Assume half of this future is already built into the stock at $565, so we get 3.4% more between now and January 25th, which would be $584.
Thoughts?
I said "not 100%", and "average user" (not all users). I also said "Apple will still sell some additional milion iPhones" and, as you quoted, that CM marketing and 3/4G will help to make those additional sales.
So... where did I say iPhone has peaked in China??
Also, I never said they will never get an iPhone from CM. People will renew their iPhones from time to time, as they would without the CM deal. IF China mobile offers any advantage, maybe they will renew it with CM. Otherwise, they will buy from Apple (better service), or from a cheaper grey market dealer.
And I ask again, why should most CM subscribers have waited for this deal to get their iPhone? They could buy it from the Apple Store (China) at any time. Only drawback is 2G data only (GPRS-EDGE) on CM, but most users have very small (30-200MB) or no data plan, so that is not so important.
There! You said it again!
You're suggesting if someone has waited this long... the China Mobile deal won't entice them either.
I disagree!
Thoughts? How about it seems like you pulled a lot of those numbers out of your butt.
We have no idea how this will pan out in terms of sales.But count me in the camp that thinks this will be a significant boon for Apple. One would have to be crazy to deny that the ease of buying an iPhone in a CM store, as opposed to gray market or an Apple store, will have a significant impact. I'm aware that many in China use their iPhones on CM already, but that is usually (in my experience) driven by the desire to have an iPhone plus the desire to stay with CM so as not to give up a number or because of the perception that CM's network is better. CM's sales of the iPhone is going to usher a LOT of people into the 3G/4G era. Why stay stuck on 2G when you can video chat with your friends on QQ or WeChat if you get 3G? Why NOT be able to watch video clips on your phone when you're out and about?
downplayer! The same could have been said about T-Mobile, now look at how well they are doing. Your reasoning is so flawed. Those guys at apple are a lot smarter than you think, not sure why so many think they are smarter than Apple#Good news for Apple, but keep in mind that almost any China Mobile subscriber that wanted an iPhone already got one. In China there are almost no subsidies (aka trap for fools
The main advantage is that this new version of the iphone will finally support China Mobile's 3G and 4G standard.
If someone is wondering how anyone could use an iPhone only with 2G (as most international standard phones are not compatible with CM's 3G network), I will tell you that maaany smartphone users in China have a very small data plan (30-100 MB/month) or even no data plan at all. They use mobile data for messaging (text only) and little more.
Finally. We'll see a massive jump in sales now.
To all the people saying anyone who wanted an iphone in china would already have one is not understanding the current situation.
Iphone users can't get data, if that was the restriction in your country the iphone would not be popular either. Now apple will start to market like their ass is in fire. It'll go into marketing overdrive in china!
You can bet you'll see samsung sales in china slip relative too. A nicer even market worldwide too.
To all the people saying anyone who wanted an iphone in china would already have one is not understanding the current situation.
Iphone users can't get data, if that was the restriction in your country the iphone would not be popular either. Now apple will start to market like their ass is in fire. It'll go into marketing overdrive in china!
You can bet you'll see samsung sales in china slip relative too. A nicer even market worldwide too.
Ok. It must be a good deal, then. What is it exactly? Tell me what is the advantage. Usually Chinese carriers give you... nothing worth. But maybe this time they started to "think different."
I think you have a firm grasp of the market.
BTW, I have a load of $900 Jan '14 calls I'd love to sell you.