Apple Is Peaking, Will Decline, Predicts Trip Hawkins

Discussion in 'Apple, Inc and Tech Industry' started by webbuzz, Aug 3, 2011.

  1. webbuzz macrumors 65816

    webbuzz

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    #1
    http://www.industrygamers.com/news/apples-possible-decline-predicted-by-trip-hawkins/

    Hasn't Apple been through several "declines" in it's history?
     
  2. *LTD* macrumors G4

    *LTD*

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    #2
    Apple owns the next 5-7 years. This much is obvious.

    "Apple will decline because everything does" is the message. No kidding.

    Not anytime soon. If anything, I'd be much, much more worried about Apple's competition.

    As long as Apple keeps doing what they're doing, they've got the next few years totally bagged.
     
  3. neiltc13 macrumors 68040

    neiltc13

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    #3
    The most frequent thing I hear from my friends with iPhones is "I'm bored". Those who are interested enough in the device are beginning to tire of the OS and are looking for something truly fresh to excite them again. For them, the "magic" is wearing off.

    I was definitely one of them. iOS bored me and I wanted something different so I got a Windows Phone 7 handset. A massive bonus has also been that doesn't have any embarrassing bugs like the one in the iPhone alarm clock (have they fixed that yet?)

    For others, I think the reality is that if a phone can deliver a few key functions very well then it doesn't matter who makes it, it should still sell well. Those functions right now are:

    Calling
    Texting
    Facebook
    Web Browsing
    (For some) Skype
    (For some) Navigation

    Everything else is insignificant in comparison. This is the one reason I think that ALL manufacturers and all OSs have a chance, because it's now getting to the point where all the major OSs do these things well.
     
  4. *LTD* macrumors G4

    *LTD*

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    #4
    This same question has been asked every year for several years now.
     
  5. ct2k7 macrumors 603

    ct2k7

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    #5
    People are increasingly bored.
     
  6. lsvtecjohn3 macrumors 6502a

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    #6
    Steve Jobs just responded back to Hawkins comments. He said "Trip, what you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul."
     
  7. LethalWolfe macrumors G3

    LethalWolfe

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    #7
    IMO a large key to Apple's continuing rise is to maintain a walled garden (aka ecosystem) that is very difficult for other companies to compete with. All of the hardware sales will eventually level off as they reach market satiation. This is just the nature of the beast. iPod growth has been leveling off for years, iPhone growth can extend farther before it plateaus if Apple keeps releasing it one-by-one to carriers, and iPad growth will eventually slow then level off as well.

    If the expectation is that Apple will keep releasing home-run consumer gadgets one after another I think that is unrealistic. Eventually smart phones and tablets will become common place commodities and companies like Dell will then start another 'race to the bottom' like they did with PCs. At that point the only thing really separating Apple from the rest will be the ecosystem.

    10yrs ago Apple had like 2% of the computer market, OS X was still in diapers and the iPod was just about to be released. And now they are the team to beat. A lot can change in a decade.


    Lethal
     
  8. Liquorpuki macrumors 68020

    Liquorpuki

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    #8
    I think the iOS app market is a pretty significant draw. So is the fact the closed ecosystem makes consumers extremely vested. I'm bored of the iPhone but I'm not planning to switch because then I'd have to transfer all my data/media over to a new system and buy a replacement app for everything I use my iPhone for (e-wallet, notetaking apps, fitness apps, shopping, e-reader, etc). I'll wait for the 5 to come out instead.

    I think the bigger key to their success is their ability to enter new markets and transform them like they've been doing. They're not limited to tablets and smartphones, just like how half a decade ago, they weren't limited to computers and MP3 players. Closed ecosystem or not, it's their ability to take over new markets that helps them grow. Which is why I'm curious what they're gonna do with the cloud and televisions.

    Other than that, it looks like Trip Hawkins made that "Apple is peaking" statement just so he could rant about Flash and closed ecosystems.
     
  9. thejadedmonkey macrumors 604

    thejadedmonkey

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    #9
    I'd argue it's more than just iOS that's boring. OS X is boring. There's something to be said for having color. The original reason I thought of switching from OS X back to Windows, was boredom. Windows 8 is the antithesis of OS X, with bright vibrant colors and live tiles, which should offer consumers the change they crave, if they have been with Windows since forever, or even if they are using OS X and find the lack of colors depressing.

    I got a Windows phone, instead of an iPhone, because -even though I never owned an iPhone before- the grid of icons is just boring looking, and looks like something a 5 year old would come up with.
     
  10. *LTD*, Aug 3, 2011
    Last edited: Aug 3, 2011

    *LTD* macrumors G4

    *LTD*

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    #10
    Weird.

    Trip Hawkins in 2008 and 2009:

    http://www.slidetoplay.com/story/trip-hawkins-interview

    He seemed pretty jazzed about Apple then and had nothing but praise for Apple's closed model.

    Trip Hawkins: iPhone gives mobile biz 'permission to innovate'

    FEATURE Updated by Steve Palley, April 15th, 2009, originally posted October 13th, 2008
    UPDATE: April 15th, 2009

    What a difference six months makes in the fast-moving world of iPhone gaming! When we met with Digital Chocolate boss Trip Hawkins back in October, he wasn't totally sold on the App Store, and the San Mateo-based games publisher was taking something of a "wait and see" approach. Not any more. According to a new interview with Dean Takahashi in VentureBeat, the iPhone has become "by far [DChoc's] most effective platform."

    The interview's also full of interesting tidbits from the always-quotable Hawkins on DChoc's iPhone successes, rival App Stores, and iPhone 3.0, among other topics. A highly recommended read.
     
  11. LethalWolfe macrumors G3

    LethalWolfe

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    #11
    To me the Cloud is part of the ecosystem and not a product in and of itself. Apple is still a hardware company and how Apple's devices utilize the Cloud will be a selling point. W/regards to TV, I think that is a tougher market for Apple to get into. There is already a lot of competition from the likes of Hulu, Netflix, Sony, Microsft, Amazon and Nintendo not to mention cable companies and network TV. Add to that that big content creators not wanting to give Apple too much leverage like the music industry did.

    Apple could launch it's own TV line but consumer buying habits for TVs is way different than for computers and gadgets. The :apple:TV box, and others like it, are living on borrowed time as it's become common for TVs and Bluray players to be internet ready and bundled with apps. Apple could license it's software so TV makers could make "Apple ready" TVs but that would be giving up a lot of control on Apple's part and they typically aren't keen on doing that. I agree that it will be interesting to see what Apple does here and whether TV ever becomes more than just a hobby.


    Lethal
     
  12. patrick0brien macrumors 68040

    patrick0brien

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    #12
    DING! DING! DING!

    The Death Knell Counter has rung again!!
     
  13. maflynn Moderator

    maflynn

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    #13
    To state the obvious, if you're on top, there is only one place to go - down.

    I'm not saying apple is now going to decline but they will. Whether its next month, next year or next decade. I suspect its between next year and next decade.

    Apple has a lot of things going for it in the short term to keep things chugging pretty well but who knows what long term directions will keep them on top.
     
  14. Papanate macrumors regular

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    North Carolina
    #14
    Boredom is for sissy's. The future of 'computing' in ten years? Perhaps we will be in to real time 3D Holigraphic generators where apps are non existent.

    Total immersion.


    But then again maybe people really do want to talk on a phone, tap on a screen, and buy things.
     
  15. *LTD* macrumors G4

    *LTD*

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    #15
    There is no actual way of knowing how much more upward space there is on "top." ;)

    When you're on top you can still go a helluva lot higher. There is nothing preventing anyone from doing this.
     
  16. K00LJerk macrumors newbie

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    Jun 24, 2009
    #16
    Predicting the death of Apple seems to surface every year. I for one am glad that they aren't the 800 lb gorilla in the room (Microsoft). Apple never has to look over its shoulder but towards the future. iPhone boring? remember what came before Blackberry, Palm and others talk about boring. There is a reason every new smart phone is iPhone like even Blackberry is coming out with its own touch screen. Can't beat em join em, even Microsoft makes their own version after Apple designs a new product. Apple the best at everything? nope I'm glad for the competition that keeps Apple honest.
     
  17. Bernard SG macrumors 65816

    Bernard SG

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  18. roadbloc macrumors G3

    roadbloc

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    #18
    I sort of agree with his predictions. Whether they will become a reality is another matter.
     
  19. nuckinfutz, Aug 7, 2011
    Last edited: Aug 7, 2011

    nuckinfutz macrumors 603

    nuckinfutz

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    #19
    Didn't Sir Isaac Newton pretty much cover this? It's as if Trip Hawkins sat down in an interview and suddenly thought he was Herodotus or something.

    Anyone that's been through remedial History knows that civilizations rise and fall. That's a given.

    What's debatable is whether Apple has peaked or will continue to rise and find their peak. I tend to think it's the latter.

    Analysts fretted about what Apple would do when the iPods were no longer cash cow. Few saw the iPhone and iPad.

    Today you will hear the same fretting about what happens when the iPad and iPhone are not generating billions in profit and you can revel in the thought that these analysts know nothing more of the future than you do. If they did they'd be retired and spending their days at the beach instead of working for someone that signs their checks.

    There are plenty of areas for Apple to expand into and looking at their rising Patent Portfolio suggests that they have not peaked at all.
     
  20. Tiggs macrumors 6502

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    Jul 6, 2011
    #20
    Since when is Jobs that verbose? More likely it would be a one or two word response then back to something that actually matters. hawkins can go stand in the corner next to Dell.
     
  21. thejadedmonkey macrumors 604

    thejadedmonkey

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    #21
    You're 100% correct. But you're also 100% incorrect. Yes the Blackberry and Palm Pilot were "boring" compared to the iPhone, but as technology progresses, outdated technology becomes "boring". If you need further proof, read this article citing how much more advanced and exciting the Palm Pilot is.

    A few notible quotes "Well, the screen is remarkable...[With battery life that] will last up to two weeks, depending on the brightness setting of the backlight."
     
  22. tkermit macrumors 68040

    tkermit

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    #22
    How old exactly are these consumers we're talking about?

    [​IMG]
     
  23. Knoxifier macrumors member

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    Dallas, TX
    #23
    This.
     
  24. ct2k7 macrumors 603

    ct2k7

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    #24
    Some people like colours. I actually miss Windows 7 AERO.
     
  25. roadbloc macrumors G3

    roadbloc

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    #25
    I agree that the Lion colour scheme reminds me of this.

    [​IMG]
     

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