As someone who goes to Japan 6 to 8 times per year, I'm personally benefiting from having the balance back to where it was before the Global crash. And Japan's exports will benefit greatly from the rebalance.
But yes, they are in long term trouble. Declining and aging population, deflation, and the possibility of more regional conflicts. If anything Japan and the USA and Taiwan will draw closer in the next decade as we grow further conflicted with Red China. Korea is a potential wild card.
It will be interesting to see what happens when Red China is eventually forced to properly value their currency.
I've met Shinzo Abe. He's an old school politician, but he's a good man on a personal level. That gives one hope.
As for the unlocked phone, when 7 of 10 shoppers in the Ginza Apple store (or Shinjuku Yodobashi for that matter) are obviously Chinese, you know where those are going.
hello
your comments are very correct and good brief synopsis of the current situation.
i especially thought your comment about 7 out of 10 shoppers in Ginza being tourists from the PRC was spot on.
Ginza is awash in PRC tourist money. especially apple store and Uniqlo in Ginza.
since apple has only stopped selling the SIM free version at its on-line and physical stores, but still docomo, au, and softbank are selling the locked versions the stoppage only affects 2 populations: (1) japanese business people and long term resident foreigners living in japan who frequently go abroad and want to pop in a local SIM while abroad, and (2) temporary visitors (like Chinese tourists) who are gobbling up the Japanese version.
the Japanese model that was on sale as a SIM free version had all the 4G bands including the China specific TD-type 4G bands.
SIM free versions sold in the USA and most other countries do not have these China specific 4G bands. if apple had limited the bands to a more standard international 4G bands (and thereby crippling the phone) the PRC visitors would not be buying it.
if i can give comment on 2 other things you mention:
(1) "Red" China: i doubt that in our lifetimes a devaluation can occur. at around the current 6.2 RMB to the USD the factories that are still in China must become more and more productive to survive before the business starts to flow to Viet Nam and other emerging sources in ASEAN. the China economy must have a GDP growth of at least 7% annual growth to provide jobs to its high school and university graduates. if it can't maintain this kind of super annual growth, near riots occur (as last happened in 2008 when 40% or more of new graduates could not find jobs). major revaluation of the RMB can't occur no matter how much pressure G20 puts on China to revalue it.
(2) Abe: I myself would decline to ever meet him. a populist rightist who mistakenly believes that he has a mandate to re-write the japanese (peace) constitution, the way he is leading japan is to push China more and more away from cooperation with japan. of course this pushes the japan-usa alliance to new heights. but japan needs china. it needs china's manufacturing base and during the past few years japan is even beginning to expand into china as a market for more and more products.
the japanese people are pragmatic. my opinion is that japan must balance its china and usa cooperation in order to survive (as you have mentioned it has overwhelming demographic trends that are against it thriving).
thanks again for your comments. i enjoyed reading them.
