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Apple Launches '1 Billion App Countdown' Promotion

ThE.MeSsEnGeR said:
Here's my theory,

I updated the link http://www.apple.com//autopush/us/itunes/includes/countdown.txt
at about 1:40PM (my time, I live in Lebanon) which equals 3:40AM on CA's time. and it displayed: "11-APR-2009 04:00:00|933364065|142484"

so, I think that they update it 30 mins before the actual time displayed on the link... and it actually sets the countdown on the website to go with those numbers... I waited for the clock to strike 2PM at my time so 4AM CA's time and I took a screenshot at the exact time and it was at exactly 933,364,065 downloads!
Click to expand...

Interestingly, I'm noticing a different phenomenon.

The countdown.txt file was somewhere between 7.40 and 7.57 AM in Brussels (10.40-10.57PM in CA) from this:
11-APR-2009 21:00:00|938030517|275391
to this:
11-APR-2009 22:00:00|938271179|240662
At 7.57, I noticed something interesting: the counter changed somewhere between 7.57:15 and 7.57:30.

Here are the amounts I recorded:
7.40 (22.40 CA): 938477900
7.57 (22.57 CA): 938548000
7.57 (22.57 CA): 938503000
8.00 (23.00 CA): 938511900
Interestingly, 938271179 + 240662 = 938511841.

So is the countdown.txt file updated 50 minutes after the hour with the data of the hour, and the countdown then reaches the sum of the two numbers ten minutes later?

I'll try again in half an hour to see.
 
Okay, I've got it!

Here's the data I collected:

11-APR-2009 21:00:00|938030517|275391
11-APR-2009 22:00:00|938271179|240662
11-APR-2009 23:00:00|938477072|205893 (8.43 Brussels, 11.43 PM in CA)

7.40 (22.40 CA): 938477900
7.57 (22.57 CA): 938548000
7.57 (22.57 CA): 938503000 // => variation!
8.00 (23.00 CA): 938511841
8.40 (23.40 CA): 938673000
8.45 (23.45 CA): 938693000
8.46 (23:46 CA): 938638000 // => variation!
8.50 (23:50 CA): 938649000
9.00 (00:00 CA): 938682965

Now, as you can see, the data from 11 PM was added at around 11.43 PM, and the counter data was adjusted at 11.46 PM.

The data of the countdown.txt file can be summarised as follows:
Date - Time - Number Sold - Delta
The last number, which I call "delta", seems to represent the number of applications bought between 10 PM and 11 PM (as 938271179 + 205893 = 938477072).
The interesting thing is that the counter then uses the delta to calculate what it's supposed to be at the following hour, i.e. 12 PM in this case. Thus, at 12 PM San Francisco time, it displayed 938682965 (I have just checked).

I've written a small post on my website to explain how to use this information.
 
MegaMillions said:
I don't understand. Their "official" rules aren't very official or clear.

Is it the one billionth download that wins? If so, where does it say that?
Click to expand...

It says it... in the official rules, specifically section number 5. At the very top of the page it also says, "A PURCHASE OR DOWNLOAD
OF ANY KIND WILL NOT INCREASE YOUR CHANCES OF WINNING." That certainly wouldn't be true if every app download up to 25 per day entered you for a chance to win.

MegaMillions said:
Why can you enter daily up to 25 times if it makes no difference since it's the billionth download that wins??
Click to expand...

Simple. The average person's reading comprehension is too poor to know any better, so they will drive app downloads in the hopes of increasing their chances of winning. Instead, they are simply playing into Apple's hand of using bloated and meaningless statistics to impress these same people and promote their app store.

The App Store - now with 25,000 apps (only 94% of which are high school CS projects) and over 1 billion downloads (only 800,000,000 of which are deleted after the first day)!
 
I think you can only get a prize if you're in the USA. I remember reading that on the site.

When I try to enter 25 times, the second time I do it it says I've done it too many times! >;O
 
ericinboston said:
or 10 million users buying 100 apps each (still no way, jose)...or 100 million users (they don't even exist). So what's the math, Apple? :)
Click to expand...


Way Jose. I think the installed base for iPhones and Touches is more than 10 million. The device holds 140 apps on the configuration screen. I know a lot of people are full up. I have been full since about 3 weeks after the app store opened, and I have another 30-40 apps I have used and no longer get put on my machine.

I think taking the installed user base and saying the average person has downloaded 50-75 apps is entirely reasonable.
 
I don't see how this contest is a good thing...

The Gift/Prize Tax here in the US is 40% (last I heard), plus I *think* that the price money is added to your income which may push you into the next/higher tax backet.

So, if you have to pay 45% taxes on the prize, that's $6,300 in taxes on about $14,000 for the total prize.

How is this worth it???

It's like when AOPA or EAA has an Airplane Contest Give-Away. Most can't keep the airplane and sell it just to pay back the taxes on it... :eek:
 
gkarris said:
The Gift/Prize Tax here in the US is 40% (last I heard), plus I *think* that the price money is added to your income which may push you into the next/higher tax bracket.
Click to expand...

That's not how it works. You take the value of the prize (~$13000) and add it to your income as if it was additional income. It's not taxed any different, unless it pushes you into the next bracket. If it does push you into the next bracket, only the amount that is over the lower bracket is taxed at the higher rate. This is the same for any income, regardless of the source. It certainly isn't taxed twice as you suggested, as a gift and again as income.
 
fracai said:
That's not how it works. You take the value of the prize (~$13000) and add it to your income as if it was additional income. It's not taxed any different, unless it pushes you into the next bracket. If it does push you into the next bracket, only the amount that is over the lower bracket is taxed at the higher rate. This is the same for any income, regardless of the source. It certainly isn't taxed twice as you suggested, as a gift and again as income.
Click to expand...

You are correct.

Still, when you add state and federal income taxes, it can be a pretty heavy tax. With nobody standing in line to buy $10,000 gift cards, it's going to be pretty tough on the winner.
 
Eso said:
It says it... in the official rules, specifically section number 5. At the very top of the page it also says, "A PURCHASE OR DOWNLOAD
OF ANY KIND WILL NOT INCREASE YOUR CHANCES OF WINNING." That certainly wouldn't be true if every app download up to 25 per day entered you for a chance to win.

Simple. The average person's reading comprehension is too poor to know any better, so they will drive app downloads in the hopes of increasing their chances of winning. Instead, they are simply playing into Apple's hand of using bloated and meaningless statistics to impress these same people and promote their app store.

The App Store - now with 25,000 apps (only 94% of which are high school CS projects) and over 1 billion downloads (only 800,000,000 of which are deleted after the first day)!
Click to expand...

Awww, what?! So my scouring the free app's pages for my 25 entries for the day is for nothing?

Time to power up the spreadsheet and calculate me the ETA of said billionth download.
 
You mean I bought 50 copies of that "I Am Rich" application for nothing? I thought it would guarantee me the grand prize! :mad: ;)
 
must enter!!!

*enter
*enter
*enter
(repeat 22 more times...
every day!)

who'd turn down the giftcard? perhaps i'll make my friends do it too and if one of us wins we can all split it haha
 
EDIT:

Slowing down for the night, estimated in ~7.93 days

For anyone following the countdown, did you get the one for 14-APR-2009 22:00:00?
 
hehe i will be downloading like crazy that day. fortunately most apps are free, so ill have a queue of a few dozen or so. :D
 
Day-by-day projection

2h4ardx.png
 
i still can't believe the amount of people that think that downloading apps everyday or entering online will help their odds of winning. YOU WIN IF YOU DOWNLOAD THE FRIGGEN 1,000,000,000 DOWNLOAD. For the love of everything would people read before posting in the forum!
 
fracai said:
The full list is available at the spreadsheet created by omahajim.
I've been periodically adding my captures as well.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=peSvgz_rUARx-RxxRCyqsVw
Click to expand...

Thanks, I've got an automator script pulling the numbers for me. Sometimes it fails for some reason. I realised I can use the following hours data to make up the previous one.

And those timestamps correspond to Cupertino time right? When are the numbers refreshed (what time in the hour?)?
 
They used to be updated pretty consistently at about quarter of each hour. Today my script missed one update and didn't update a later time until almost quarter after. Mine is written in perl, checks about every 15 minutes, and only writes out when the data differs.

Yes it's the time in Cupertino.
 
Here is my contribution so far. I used the data from omahajim gDocs for missing and older data that I didn't have.
 

Attachments

  • billionappcountdown.pdf
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