There’s never going to be an oversupply of housing in an area like the Bay Area, let alone an oversupply at a time when anyone with a pulse can get a mortgage at near record-low rates. The whole idea is a pipe dream.
References:
Bay Area: San Francisco, Oakland, Fremont, Milpitas, San Jose, Cupertino, Stanford, Redwood City, Sunnyvale, Hayward, Livermore, Dublin, Mountain View, Palo Alto, Berkeley, Emeryville, etc.
North Bay Area: Mill Valley, Richmond, Marin, San Rafael, Novato.
Central Valley: Stockton, Modesto, Galt, Lodi, Tracy, Manteca, Ripon, Sacramento Area
Never going to be an oversupply of housing in the Bay Area? You're being wishful. They need to have a SUPPLY before they can have an oversupply! 😛
Besides, even up to 15 years ago, the writing was on the wall for the Bay Area. See, I get calls for job offers in the Bay Area roughly every day, and each one I turn down. Why, people ask, especially when that money is good? Well first, if you're looking at paying almost $2000/month in rent for a 600sq ft. apartment, you're looking at 3000-4000/month in rent for a house (and not even a decent size one for a single family), and worse for something with room to grow. Then factor in the mandatory earthquake insurance, and it isn't worth it.
Everyone in the Bay Area sees this, to the point where they would rather live outside the Bay Area or North Bay area, and make the drive in every day. So they'll buy a house in Stockton, Manteca, Tracy, or even the Elk Grove area in the south part of Sacramento, and make the commute every morning. Our traffic reports start at 3am, because that is the most convenient time for those who work in the Bay area to drive in without any major problems, accidents, or jams.
That's a 2.5 hour drive. So they'll start out at 4 or no later than 4:30am, and if traffic is good, they'll make it to the office around 7:30 at the latest. If not, they're not getting in until 8:30 or 9. If they don't get out by 2:30, they're going to catch the same traffic on the way back during the evening rush, pushing them not wanting to leave until 7. They get home by 9:30 or 10 to just go to bed and do the same thing in the morning.
No time with family, no time to rest, no kids activities, nothing.. except for a cheaper house in which the difference in price is mostly eaten up by the gas money for the commute. That tradeoff is why we are seeing housing prices in the North Bay area and Central Valley skyrocket, while those in the Bay area are trying to hold on to what they have, and if they are selling, they are still getting multiple cash offers, placing everyone that could use that house because of where they work, family, etc., out of the picture.
So taking that $3000-4000/month in rent for a house comes out to a good $48000/year, which is a good down payment on a 3500sq ft. house in Council Bluffs IA, putting you 15 minutes at the most on a horrible commuting day from 2 data centers, the entire business/financial district of Omaha, the airport, and 25 minutes from those other aforementioned data centers.
Call me a stickler on this from being from the midwest, but I've always subscribed to the thought of "If you can not get from one end of town to the other in 30 minutes or less, the town is too big". That is applicable everywhere I've lived: Omaha, Oklahoma City, Sacramento, Portland/Vancouver, and Las Vegas. Hell, out of all of them, Vegas has had the most growth: I moved there in 1998 when they had no more than 650,000 people, and left when they were topping 5 million. I could still get from the Summerlin area in NW Las Vegas to Boulder City in 25 minutes.
Bay Area? Nice place to visit, but no way would I move there.
BL.