This timing seems aggressive.
The current rumors are for a 24" imac in 2021 and possibly a 14" laptop likely pro. There are no rumors for the Mac Pro this year, and they gave themselves 2 years for the transition.
I would believe the iPad Pro gets updated in March (A14X) , maybe the iPad mini (but that's more of a wish).
Then by or at WWDC the 24" imac and the rest of the current laptop lineup (using M1X based on the A14X maybe? Or M1+ with external GPU chip on package like the RAM on the M1). These computers currently have twice as many thunderbolt connection of the newly released machines. And more powerfiul GPU. Apple need to release something that has better GPU than the current lineup. And maybe alongside that a Mac Mini that goes to 32 / 64GB of RAM and hopefully a better GPU.
Afterwards the 27" maybe march or june 2022 (using M2X based on A15X?) but I haven't read any rumor about it or the iMac Pro except for the iMac Pro as recipient of Micro LED display. They have the most powerful GPU of the lineup, so Apple really needs to refine its GPU solution. Maybe even accept AMD GPU in the machine.
In theory by the end of the two years they will have released one of each of their current lineup. So WWDC 2022 is when I expect the _announcement_ of the Mac Pro.
I also really wish they update the mac mini with MBP 16" class internals (M1X), but there are no rumors. The only thing that's weird is the 10Gbit M1 mac mini motherboard that appeared on the inventory.
These are the reasons Steve Jobs shortened the announced 2 year PowerPC to Intel transition from 24 months to
less than 7 months from the Jan-Aug 2006.
It is highly likely that this transition will have as short a transition as well.
Just like the
last Mac with a Superdrive Apple may continue to sell one Intel Mac SKU. So say a $1,099 2017 iMac 21.5" or 2018 Mac mini being sold until as late as 2023? One SKU that cannot be BTO'd selling less than 18.35 thousand units/year may be worth Apple's while?
Historically any redesigned bodies would occur no earlier 12 months later. So late 2020 MBA with M1 would probably get a refreshed body in a late 2021 MBA with M2 model. iMac 24" and MBP 14" would occur by early 2022 with a "M2X".
I'll push figures so that there's less ambiguity.
About
18.35 million Macs were shipped globally for the 12 months of 2019. Today we're entering the 12th month of 2020.
M1 Macs are designed for ~80% (~14.68 million) of all Macs shipped globally. They ship that many as they're the cheapest Macs you can buy. That's why the I/O are limited, memory is up to 16GB and storage no more than 2TB. Future update to Big Sur may enable eGPU support. These limitations are
largely not a concern for the primarily target market.
eGPU may not have been activated this early as the M1 has a less than 20% performance gap between it and today's popular discreet GPU that worked on macOS. That would change as 2021-onwards. So in terms of man-hours allocation it would be more efficient to do this in 2021. Do the work just in time when it actually matters.
Members to
https://forums.macrumors.com are not the M1 Mac's primary target users. ~20% of these users may compromise with a M1 Mac and force it into their use case.
Future (M1X?) Apple Silicon chips (~19% or ~3.4865 million) designated for 4 port Mac mini, 4 port MBP 13", MBP 16", iMac 21.5" and even iMac 27" are probably what ~80% of people who interact on this forum would appeal to. These will launch at a Mac event 100% on a Tuesday & ~80% probably of a March 2021. ~19% probability of a January/April 2021 Mac event. <1% probability of a Februay 2021 Mac event.
There is of course the remaining top ~20% who would insist on a Core i9 or Xeon chip TDP equivalent on the iMac 27", iMac Pro and Mac Pro. These Macs represent about ~1% (~183.5 thousand) of all Macs shipped globally. Apple could ramp up volume by transitioning their
cloud computing platform to ARM.
Top supercomputer is ARM running on
Linux. These will launch at a Mac event 100% on a Tuesday & ~100% probability that this will occur during WWDC 2021 keynote
No doubt there is less than 20% (3.67 million) demand for Intel Macs from November 2020 to June 2021. After then would demand dwindle to ~1%? A demand that would be better catered to by authorized Apple resellers like BHPhoto & Adorama?
So why update any Intel Macs beyond the late 2020 iMac 27" at additional operational cost? Just continue selling the 2017-2020 Intel Macs on hand until forecasted sales estimates drops to insignificant quantities are being ordered by people who insist on a 2 year Intel to Apple Silicon transition. Buyers concerned with x86 compatibility knowing Apple Silicon is performance-superior will not mind buying Intel chips released between 2017-2020. Buy while supplies last. It will receive macOS updates until as early as 2024 or as late as 2028 for 2020 Intel Macs.
The currently sold Intel Mac's listed from newest to oldest.
Source
- Late 2020 iMac 27"
- Mid 2020 MBP 13" four TB4/USB port
- Late 2019 Mac Pro
- Late 2019 MBP 16"
- Early 2019 iMac 21.5" Retina 4K
- Late 2018 Mac mini four TB4/USB port
- Late 2017 iMac Pro
- Mid 2017 iMac 21.5" non-Retina non-4K
Redesigned bodies may come out as soon as after WWDC 2021 or some time 2022.
Historically Apple is known in rare occasions to refresh Macs in less than
210 days.
So an Apple Silicon iMac 27" may be refreshed as early as March 2021 (more than 210 days later) as an early 2021 model or as late as WWDC 2021 (more than 300 days later) as a mid 2021 model may occur.
