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Apple No Longer Plans to Debut New Apple TV+ Content at SXSW Due to Coronavirus Concerns
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This is not a valid reason to play down the threat. Health agencies around the world are urgently chasing down contacts of known infectees, testing tens of thouands of people per day. It's not like the early days in China.
This is not a valid reason to play down the threat. Health agencies around the world are urgently chasing down contacts of known infectees, testing tens of thouands of people per day. It's not like the early days in China.
It they will not cancel it, it will stick around no matter what. Sure, it is not, and likely will not ever be as popular as Netflix, it will be more niche streaming service, (as many others) but they will not cancel it. I'm not using even the free year trial, and haven't met anyone actually using it. Im not from USA, so I guess it is more popular in the USA.
“More people die by x” is probabilistic illiteracy. This new contagion is an exogenous event, which has multiplicative and systemic properties. It’s silly to compare it to relatively static problems. Our system has been built up to absorb the problems it normally deals with. The flu, cancer, heart disease, are relatively constant every year. The Coronavirus has an increase 100x of cases in one month, there is no comparison. Comparisons using raw numbers of cases and deaths do not appreciate the potential severe short term shock to our system.
I'm wondering if this isn't being used as a pretext for larger companies to quit these big, expensive events at a time when the internet and social media are becoming the main channel for promoting new products (not to mention environmental virtue signalling)...
How many of these big events are going to pick up again after this?
Actually, even you are misapplying the statistics.
Lets say the fatality rate really is 2% - Source: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51048366 (but also note what they say about the reliability of that figure) I.e. if 1000 random people get the virus, around 20 people would be expected to die and 980 will survive (980/1000)*100 = 98%
However, as its also being widely reported, the vast majority of the fatalities are already infirm, so as soon as you say "Every other healthy or mostly healthy person" you've already excluded most of those 20-out-of-1000 fatalities. So lets say 19 of those 20 fatalities were already infirm - the fatality rate for otherwise healthy people is more like 100*(20-19)/(1000-19) = ~0.1% - and even that is assuming that the disease wiped out all the "infirm" people in the group.
Moral: Statements about probability and statistics are very sensitive to how you word them... If you're healthy and get C19 the chances you dying are much smaller than 100 minus the published fatality rate.
Re. those statistics - at least in the UK - the only people being routinely tested until about a week ago were people who (a) reported flu-like symptoms and (b) had recently visited China/Italy/etc. or have (knowingly!) been in close contact with people who had. In other words, there could be many infected people who have mild symptoms (at a time of year when coughs and sore throats are unremarkable) but have no reason to report and get tested. So that fatality rate is highly likely to be an over-estimate.
No, the person in the corner with heart disease is going to die. As a civilised person you'll want to do what you can to help/protect them, but you're not personally under threat of anything more than a week of hot lemon and asprin. (Well, personally I do have heart problems so I'd have a bit more to worry about - but for the typical person...)
The point is, if we'd never heard of regular flu (an annual pandemic which kills half-a-million people a year) and it suddenly appeared, we'd be in a similar, probably worse state of panic. There's no rational reason why we should see flu as an acceptable risk, but panic over coronavirus. Even with flu, the vaccine is less than perfect, there are new 'strains' that spread globally each year and there's plenty of scope for sacrificing a bit of money and convenience in order to reduce the spread, save lives and reduce lost work-days.
Now, that doesn't mean that another flu-like disease doesn't matter - especially when the knowledge about it is so sketchy - but it does put some of the more hysterical public and press reactions to C19 in perspective. The press are being particularly irresponsible in whipping up panic with excessive coverage and exaggerated headlines. In particular, scientists and authorities should to be able to discuss contingency and worst-case-scenario plans (the 'death rate' being pretty much a worst-case) without some idiot in the press turning them into headlines.
These event cancellations/withdrawals are certainly not being driven by science, but rather panic and fear of future litigation by ambulance-chasing lawyers and courts with 20:20 hindsight.
The rational prevention measures at the moment seem to be an attempt to postpone the inevitable epidemic until the (northern) summer months when flu-like diseases tend to die back and health services are less stressed by regular flu.
It has nothing to do with releasing content. Did you read past the first ten words of the title of this thread?
Have you even seen the leaked videos from China? From like a month back? ... This stuff is horrifying. Don't believe the non-hype, rather. The people at the top don't care about strangers and people at the middle and bottom dying...
The shows it has now are fantastic. The Morning Show was great...but I guess it turns some "bros" off because it featured strong women standing up to men...so therefore "terrible". Also, Mythic Quest: Raven's Banquet was pretty funny too. And I thought it was cool that even though it was on Apple TV+, the game developers in the show were on Razer gaming laptops.
But hey, opinions are all subjective. There's no "objective" truth here. If you didn't like them, you didn't like them. Not everyone can like everything. But I don't see the service going away any time soon.
Agreed, I certainly would consider the vaccine if it’s suitable for me. It would need to be compatible with the yearly flu vaccine we are offered in my country though.
I enjoyed See. I also really liked the premise of For All Mankind, and the season started and ended strongly. But I felt it got bogged down in some boring and seemingly irrelevant side-plots during the middle of the season. It's also moved so quickly forward in time that it's not clear where they'll go in the 2nd season, but I'll still check it out when it arrives.
While I enjoyed For All Mankind, I found it a bit formulaic; I'd give it a B- overall. Good concept, some interetsing moments; but overall you knew what was going to happen next. Still worth watching.
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Why you call them pathetic (I understand in negative way? is it right?)? Which one?
For your reference, these are the score of some Apple TV+ series (In About 6 Months) from Rotten Tomatoes:
- Visible: Out on Television is a Documentary show with 100% Critic rating and 100% Audience rating
- Little America: an excellent inspiring short stories (even for the people outside America like me, they help me with Big Decision in my life) with 94% Critic rating and 90% Audience rating
- The Elephant Queen with 90% Critic rating and 92% with Audience rating
- Servant is a horror movie with 82% Critic rating and 84% Audience rating
- Mythic Quest is comedy with 88% Critic rating and 86% with Audience rating
- Morning show is affected by other competitor with 61% Critic rating but with 93% Audience rating
And more coming content, this is just an about 6 months service. What would you ask for?
I love Netflix for the Witcher or The Stranger Things but I Do Love Apple TV+ for Visible, Little America, Servant, Morning Show and I waiting for new season of these titles. For me, they are all Very Good.
Sorry for my bad English.
Good to hear!
I work in a US hospital that's treating a coronavirus patient. We were just saying at work yesterday that even if there WAS a vaccine for this...a large percentage of Americans wouldn't get it because they think they know better than science and medicine. (Exhibit A...flu vaccines). The outright ignorance of people in this country and the attitude of "I know better than the experts" is astounding. Everyone would rather listen to each other or some bs article online instead of people who have spent decades studying this stuff.
Ultra Music Festival, one of the biggest in the US, just cancelled last night. It's starting to happen. They had 170,000 attendees in Miami last year. In both Miami's case and others, it's the governments that are forcing the festivals to cancel. Interesting to see if Texas will take this stance.
The probable number of undiagnosed people is factored into that 1.9 and now 3.6 number. Community studies are starting to look like a smaller number of asymptomatic people have the virus. If you give a group of people the test and 100 of that group are positive, 3 and a half of those positive tests will be dead. (The half dead will probably just be a zombie.)
You are not counting the number of people who get very sick, but don't die. Another factor, up until now, more people outside of China have gotten the virus and died than those who have gotten better. In the United States, there are 162 confirmed cases at the moment. Of those, 11 have died and 8 have gotten better. That 162 does not count people waiting to be tested or waiting for the test results.
The fatality rate is based on testing of people who have been in contact with those with the virus, not those who happen to be showing symptoms.
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I am a bit worried that the Trump administration will rush the Phase 1 trials. One thing the FDA gets right is, making sure a drug is safe or a test is accurate before it is given to the general public. I worry that this professionalism is being thrown out by the current administration.
Over 700 people tested positive aboard the
This is amongst a group (cruise ship passengers) that skews heavily towards retirees and elderly, and presumably has a much higher incidence of pre-existing health conditions than the general population.
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There's a big difference between panic, and being extremely extra precautious.
And your definition of rational may be flawed. There's a mathematical difference in time series expectation between a risk with a well known statistical standard deviation and variance, and another more complex risk where the bounds on the variance are still uncertain (if the 2nd moment is even integrable). (That's why some investment funds, one run by Nobel Prize winners even, go under after a what they call a "10 sigma" event.)
All those stats being quoted here: note they come with no confidence interval error bars. There is no reasonable worse case (or best case) scenario without them.
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Yes, but a lot of what we're seeing in the media is definitely on the panic side of that comparison. Whereas the response to regular flu is negligible (at least, in terms of disruption in most people's lives - I'm sure there are doctors and nurses knee deep in flu patients who don't feel that way!)
Plus, although the fatality rate of the corona virus is uncertain its more likely that it is being over estimated (because it is almost certain that there are unreported mild/asymptomatic cases) than it is somehow being under-estimated.
NB: there's a new variant of regular flu almost every year with vairable severity - and millions of people get that without reporting it so its not like flu is completely predictable.
No, a number approaching nearly all of the people who caught it more than a couple of weeks ago. As all the reports have said so far, the vast majority of people experience a mild flu-like illness and recover in a week or so.
According to the latest government figures, as of 9:00 GMT on Thursday there were 115 cases across the UK. Another case was later confirmed in Wales.
...
Around 45 of the confirmed cases have been self-isolating at home, while 18 people have recovered.
Coronavirus: Woman in 70s becomes first virus fatality in UK
The patient, who had underlying health conditions, dies as the number of UK cases rises to 116.www.bbc.co.uk
Note that the vast majority of those 110 cases appeared in the last few days... and 'self-isolating at home' means 'not seriously ill'.
The problem is trying to apply a statistical result to a small subset of the data does not mean the estimate is wrong if the subset deviates significantly from the estimate. to wit, I had a friend that won 50% of the time at roulette; that doesn't mean that the probability of winning lo\ng term is wrong.
I do not know about that particular ship, but my experience is a cruise is a pretty good cross section of ages and health; and not skewed to retirees and elderly, except perhaps in a relocation.
19th
Regular flu: get a flu shot
Regular flu: will be back every year, too late to possibly stop it forever
Regular flu: calling it “regular flu” implies that Covid-19 is flu. It’s not.
Regular flu: R0 of around 1.3
Covid-19: no vaccine available
Covid-19: possibility exists that by taking strong measures now, we can prevent it from coming back every year
Covid-19: only data available shows 3%+ lethality rate, vs. around 0.1% for a typical flu (factor of 30)
Covid-19: R0 of around 2.5, or approximately what the Spanish flu of 1918 was. Meaning that it is *much*n more contagious than the flu, and if extreme measures are not taken, and taking into account there is no vaccine, suggests that a much higher absolute number of deaths would occur.
All the “media is causing panic” nonsense is going to get people killed. Everyone should be taking this disease very seriously, stop trying to find reasons why it’s not so bad, and keep in mind that the only reason it hasn’t been much much worse already is precisely because the media has been spreading the word and people, businesses, and governments have been taking reasonable measures.
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Where does this number come from? In the last leg there were 6 positive tests, and they haven’t delivered tests yet for the current passengers, according to the news this morning?
Regular flu: get a flu shot
Regular flu: will be back every year, too late to possibly stop it forever
Regular flu: calling it “regular flu” implies that Covid-19 is flu. It’s not.
Regular flu: R0 of around 1.3
Covid-19: no vaccine available
Covid-19: possibility exists that by taking strong measures now, we can prevent it from coming back every year
Covid-19: only data available shows 3%+ lethality rate, vs. around 0.1% for a typical flu (factor of 30)
Covid-19: R0 of around 2.5, or approximately what the Spanish flu of 1918 was. Meaning that it is *much*n more contagious than the flu, and if extreme measures are not taken, and taking into account there is no vaccine, suggests that a much higher absolute number of deaths would occur.
All the “media is causing panic” nonsense is going to get people killed. Everyone should be taking this disease very seriously, stop trying to find reasons why it’s not so bad, and keep in mind that the only reason it hasn’t been much much worse already is precisely because the media has been spreading the word and people, businesses, and governments have been taking reasonable measures.
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Where does this number come from? In the last leg there were 6 positive tests, and they haven’t delivered tests yet for the current passengers, according to the news this morning?