I did a little digging (and answered my question - it's 10/1/15), but I also found this:Unfortunately you are incorrect. The liability shift pertains to merchants purchasing readers that will accept chip and signature/pin debit and credit cards. Nowhere is it mentioned that NFC will be required and there are readers that do accept chip and signature/pin but do not have NFC capabilities.
With this type of liability shift, the party that is the cause of a chip-on-chip transaction not occurring (i.e., either the issuer or the merchant’s acquirer) will be financially liable for any resulting card-present counterfeit fraud losses. When a transaction occurs using chip technology, any liability for counterfeit fraud, though unlikely, would follow current Visa Operating Regulations.
The policy assigns liability for counterfeit fraud to the party that has not made the investment in EMV chip cards (issuers) or terminals (merchants’ acquirers). The policy encourages wider deployment of EMV cards and terminals.
(emphasis added)
http://usa.visa.com/download/merchants/bulletin-us-participation-liability-shift-080911.pdf
It looks like the liability is on merchants that don't purchase the EMV readers, or card issuers that don't hand out chipped cards to their customers.