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Apple Posts 2Q 2005 Results
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HiRez
macrumors 603
Heh, I sold all my Apple stock at $23, it's too strange for me. Still glad to see the great results though, but Apple still has some problems:B-52 Macer said:
- PowerBook speeds still stuck around 1.6 GHz. I got my 800 MHz TiBook (top of the line then) exactly four years ago, so that's only a 100% increase in four years, Moore's Law clearly got tossed out the window. It's really going to start being a problem for them unless they swallow their pride and go with the Freescale G4s (including dual-G4 models) until/if the G5s are ready for that application. Yes, PowerBook sales are increasing, but I bet a lot of that is iPod "halo" effect and switchers, plus the trend is that more people are just buying laptops instead of desktops each year.
- As sales increse, will the low-cost Mac Mini and iPod Shuffle canibalize sales of the more expensive models and eat into profit margins? I think it's too early to tell.
- The record companies are getting greedy again and Apple may have a hard time maintaining the iTMS/iPod roll they're on. Apple already doesn't have the profit margins on songs to allow a price increase, and increasing thier prices to the consumer would, for many, eliminate the advantage of convenience of buying soft copies of tunes instead of CD (and CD prices are also creeping down recently).
- Reports say that Congress is looking at Apple as a monopolist now (oh, sweet irony) and may clamp down on them by forcing them to open up the FairPlay DRM, or by something else. I wonder how much money M$ and Sony are paying to lobbyists each year.
Freg3000 said:
While most of the numbers were superb, this song number is a disaster -- if it's real.
The 400 million milestone either came and went before April 8, or song sales are slowing down. That would be particularly astounding given how many iPods were sold. The flash numbers -- in particular -- boggle the mind. Not only did they enter the market and slash the margins in it for everyone else (Creative, Rio, Samsung), but they stole nearly half the market to boot!
I'm a personal believer that the music store could be worth as much as the entire company is now so I watch it very closely. I am hoping -- sincerely -- that they announce the 500 millionth song sold before May 10. Anything less is really quite bad.
Again, the rest of the numbers are pretty terrific at first blush. Imagine what would happen if there were truly compelling new Powerbooks -- G5 or dual core -- to goose those sales.
Good Mac numbers especially; the iPod is probably going to taper off to a more sustainable, yet still highly profitable, position within a couple years, no doubt maintaining market share if innovation continues. Market share probably can't get too much higher, but volume can still stand to increase for a while.
There's a lot of room for computer sales growth, though. The halo effect appears to be very real. Moreover, Microsoft can't really grow significantly, and their difficulties in operating system innovation may cause more switching. Tiger should also prove to be a successful release, if Panther is any indicator.
My recommendation for AAPL: Hold.
The stock is a good long-term investment at this point for people who bought lower, but I wouldn't suggest buying until the next time the price is down a bit.
(DISCLOSURE AND DISCLAIMER:I own no stock in any company and probably won't be buying any soon. Moreover, I am a jackleg analyst and I am not responsible for any decisions you make off my advice.)
There's a lot of room for computer sales growth, though. The halo effect appears to be very real. Moreover, Microsoft can't really grow significantly, and their difficulties in operating system innovation may cause more switching. Tiger should also prove to be a successful release, if Panther is any indicator.
My recommendation for AAPL: Hold.
The stock is a good long-term investment at this point for people who bought lower, but I wouldn't suggest buying until the next time the price is down a bit.
(DISCLOSURE AND DISCLAIMER:I own no stock in any company and probably won't be buying any soon. Moreover, I am a jackleg analyst and I am not responsible for any decisions you make off my advice.)
dongmin
macrumors 68000
Yeah the iMac numbers are a little disappointing given that the Mac Minis are included in it. BUT this is the Jan.-March quarter which is the one of the weakest. If you compare this to the same quarter last year, Apple kicked royal ass in every category except the PowerMac category, which is to be expected. Apple should have a pretty phenomenal year overall with Tiger, new PowerMacs, and more iPod spinoffs in the pipeline.rdowns said:
Good work, Apple. Keep it going.
Rocksaurus
macrumors 6502a
rdowns said:
Interesting, I'll keep an eye on the stock to see if it goes up per your prediction.
What I'm interested most in (aside from the outstanding iPod sales) is the change in cash and short term investments. As an investor I'd like to know where that kind of money is going to.
Also, $888 million seems like a hell of a lot of accounts receivable (IMO).
Code:
March 26, September 25,
2005 2004
Current assets:
Cash and cash equivalents $2,254 $2,969
Short-term investments 4,803 2,495
Accounts receivable, less allowances of $51
and $47, respectively 888 774jesuscandle said:
That is correct. They sold like 4.6M in the Christmas quarter. Makes the numbers more interesting. Of course thet didn't have shuffle and the revised mini lineup either.
Rocksaurus said:
You should have seen the activity ticker on CNBC this afternoon. Every other symbol was AAPL. I thought their feed was broken for a few minutes. I should have figured a conference call was going on.
[edit] crap, they split on Feb 28th so this is like $84 compared to the $32 I sold at....
rogo said:
If they sold at approximately the same rate as they did from 250 to 300, then they would have hit 350 about 4/11/2005. If they hit the number right around the conference call...they are staying steady....if they hit it much ahead of today...then they are accelerating.
Looks like they are pretty steady...but not growing (rate of increase) too fast.
Moore's law says nothing about clock speed. It's all about the number of transistors on a chip.HiRez said:
Chris
dotdotdot said:
Wouldn't you like to think so. Take the number of people that own Windows PCs (hundreds of millions) and compare that again Mac owners (25 million w/ 14 million using OS X), and that put some perspective on the subject. Mexico city and Canada each have populations of just over 40 million, I believe. Apple hasn't even scratched the surface of where this could go.
EDIT: Canada only has 32 million. The US is over 100 million. Just think about other countries: China, Japan, etc.
http://www.statcan.ca/english/edu/clock/population.htm
EDIT #2: USA has population of 295 million.
http://www.census.gov/main/www/popclock.html
.
HiRez
macrumors 603
Yes yes fine, if you want to get technical, you're correct. But of course I'm referring to the computer industry's adopted variant of that, which does imply speed. Sure it's not an official "law" or even a "theory", but it help up for quite a while and now is rapidly decelerating, and Apple is "innovating" by decelerating their speed curve faster than most of the industry. 🙄chabig said:
dotdotdot said:
Apple has sold less than 20 million iPods to date. The market is going to keep getting bigger for a long time to come.
And, not only are people buying an iPod for the first time, there's a market there as well for repeat buyers. The original iPod only held 5GB. Many people are probably exceeding that capacity by now, and are looking for a replacement.
Not to mention that businesses are now looking at iPods as ways for their employees to carry data around. (Doctors for example with Xrays/MRIs and other test results.) So in that situation, you have people using them at work, enjoying them, and maybe purchasing one for themselves as home.
SiliconAddict
macrumors 603
Nickygoat said:
I doubt it. There have been some analysis of the various shuffle components and the general consensus on most of the articles Ive read is that the core components cost Apple at most $40-$50 in bulk. Apple is making an absolute killing on the shuffle. Esp the $150 shuffle. I dont think they are being hurt at all by that product.
SiliconAddict
macrumors 603
dotdotdot said:
Not even close. I think, I could be wrong but I swear on a bible, that I read they haven't even hit sales of what the Walkman was selling at, at its peak.
There is A LOT of untapped markets out there. The biggest factor to sales at this point is price and with the amazingly broad spectrum of iPod products and price ranges Apple has there is no reason they can't pull a Sony Walkman. Next holiday season iPod sales are going to be "interesting" to say the least.
dicklacara
macrumors 6502a
Fredstar said:
Yes, the rest of CY 2005 should see:
1) Delivery on the HD promise
2) Delivery of Video on Demand & Video on Schedule
3) Exciting new applications
4) Faster Wireless
5) Upgrades to most of the current products
6) exciting new non-[traditional]computer products
7) new server products
8) some exciting acquisitions
9) Work on the next OS X
Depending on what/when Longhorn contains/is released, Apple could be in the Catbird seat from the perspective of the OS.
A battle royale could be shaping up between Longhorn and OS X 10.5 Lion sometime late 2006 - early 2007.
ccuilla said:
You get that another 4 million iPods were added to the base, the store is gaining more awareness and that sales of music might not be growing right? Given that music sales were growing exponentially just 2 months ago, this is a disaster -- if true.
jcshas said:
please people...look a bit past all the media spin from Apple. There is almost no increased 'Halo effect' by the mac mini and total revenue on consumer desktop has fallen more compared to Q1 then seasonal influences can explain. Don't know why there is a double thread concerning the Q2 results but read the other thread for further explanation.
SiliconAddict said:
I don't know. $99 was an extrememly high-end walkman, but a low-end ipod. Weren't most walkmans going for like $20?
pennKid said:
In today's dollars, $20 in 1979 is $85.70 (if you use share of relative GDP conversion). And I'm not sure you could ever get a "real" Sony Walkman for $20 - seems to me the $20 ones were all knockoffs from other companies. But I could be wrong.
Also, an extremely high-end Walkman was $200, not $99. Figure that's around $800 in today's dollars.
The US is over 100 million?
Duh! =)
Last I saw.. the US has about 350 million residents. Bit of a difference from "Over 100 million"
Duh! =)
Last I saw.. the US has about 350 million residents. Bit of a difference from "Over 100 million"
That was once said about computers, and televisions, and probably automobiles too, when there was one of each per household. Then it became one per person and sales continued. Once every person on the planet within computing distance has an iPod, sales will still continue as iPods get better -- and as old batteries die! 🙂dotdotdot said:
Apple is also smart to have multiple lines of iPods, so you can think of an excuse to have more than one, e.g., a big one for your photos and videos and a little one for music while traveling light. Perhaps Apple will sell us a separate one for audio lectures at school, one to live in the car, and one that we'll use at work for some reason.