cheesyappleuser, I wonder if you actually read what you wrote... I did, and I'm still scratching my head in disbelief.
Taking it a bit at a time:
"Well, if you count iPad sales in Q1 also beat those of the iPhone, and count how badly the iPad is faring"
If you consider Apple selling about 50 million iPads this year, and earning about 90% of the profits from worldwide tablet sales, as fairing "badly", then that would be the Bizarro World definition of "badly".
"I'd say long-term product sales are inversely proportional to the product's initial success."
I'd say that is the most irrational comment I've read in a while. Using your "logic", the iPhone in 2007 was a runaway success for Apple, selling more in its first year than any previous Apple product. Therefore (using your "inversely proportional" method of madness) the iPhone has been a sales "flop"!?!
"So, based in this (yes, I'm an analyst)"
You are no analyst that I would ever take advice from... in fact I would probably do better doing the OPPOSITE of what you advised.
"I conclude the Apple Watch will be a flop."
Uh... you are too late. The Apple Watch has already been a runaway success for Apple. An estimated 5 million units will be sold in its first 3 months (the iPhone sold 5 million units in its first year!), and it is expected conservatively to reach 20 million sold in its first year. If you still consider this a "flop", please send me a postcard from Bizarro World.