Many are hoping for a TBolt->USB 3.0 hub. Of course, the driver for this will not be an Apple driver - since Apple doesn't use any USB 3.0 controllers like Intel and other vendors do.
TB is not USB. It is more a complement to inernal PCI-e cards. A USB 3.0 controller PCI-e has the exact same "problem". If it has unknown, non-kernel supported hardware it needs to come with a driver.
As long as TB has the $50 cable and higher than average price costs this should present a major problem. If the TB devices are not engaged in 'race to the bottom' price wars then the costs of licensing and/or building a driver can be incorporated into the cost of the device. It is a problem if want 'cheapest' devices.
This is exactly why TB is
not a major competitor to USB. Basic USB support should be incorporated into the basic OS. Windows 8 has USB 3.0 support. Apple probably will be embressed enough soon to roll out USB 3.0 and XHCI support for Mac OS X soon. If they want to avoid the "screwy 3rd party driver" problem they should have done this already, but still some time to fix the problem ( especially if the new Mac Pro rolls out with USB 3.0 .... which is should. There is no excuse why it shouldn't.).
SATA RAID will be another popular option - again, not using an Apple driver.
Hasn't reall impeded the ExpressCard or Mac Pro PCI-e card market for these. It will only get bigger with TB.
If Apple can't ship a monitor without requiring a firmware upgrade to the host, what are third party hardware suppliers going to do?
For non boot devices the firmware is probably a non issue. If want the firmware to hand off the OS boot process to the device then may need to fix the firmware. if only want to collect the PCI-e devices and hand that list to the OS to boot from then all really need is proper drivers.
Will Apple upgrade the host firmware to make your Promise or Sonnettech or Belkin or... work?
I think Apple is going to make the docking port vendors self manage on this ponit. Use Apple parts ( which indirectly makes Apple's parts cheaper... most customers ... lower price) or have a device users can't boot from. If can't boot Apple's dock will so their devices will be at competive disadvantage. Apple is
not going to loose sleep over that. This is
not the Windows market. If non support leaves Apple with a hardware competitive advantage their is no reason to do it. As compared to a market where Microsoft doesn't sell 95% of the hardware.
And what about next year, when the Apples have a newer version of some of the controller chips than the display or third party device?
A dubious question since Apple supports the hardware they sold for at least 2-3 years. If there are millions of mac out there in active use and a high fraction covered with Applecare with the older chip it will get support.
The only "flaw" here is that the 3rd party vendors have to wait to see which "next gen" choice Apple makes before moving if want to stay underneath the umbrella. It shouldn't be too hard to make good guesses though.
Now Apple's opened a Pandora's Box by extending the PCIe bus outside of the box, where anyone can connect 'most anything to it. We may find lots of hits if we search for "'Thunderbolt' AND ('plug' OR 'unplug') AND 'kernel panic'".
The Mac PRo and ExpressCard macs already opened that box so this isn't "new". The only issue is whether it will be more widespread issue. Not so sure it will be. The cheapest route for peripheral vendors is to ride in Apple's wake as docking station vendors. For parts that Apple doesn't do ( Fiber Channel , SATA RAID , etc. ) the higher TB prices give some air cover for paying for drivers.
The cheapest option for the lower margin players it just do USB 3.0. When Apple adds it and their device just needs basic XHCI driver they don't have to do anything. .
I do think it will have slight impact on Apple's margins. Support costs are going to go up a bit. But it is a price they were going to have to pay anyway to stay competitive in the overall PC market. Average PC costs are going down. There is no way Apple can charge the price premium and have zero PCI-e expansion. That has worked for last several years but the pricing gap is continuing to grow. Throw on top Windows 8 does
not look like another Vista and Apple is almost required to make a move to stay competitive.
If Apple can establish a "higher than USB 3.0 prices" market for TB it won't be that big of an impact.