Apple Projected to Set New March Quarter Record with 42 Million iPhones Shipped

[Arndroid]

Yep, you nailed it. Last quarter Apple was pretty much bang on its forecast (which is more realistic than it was during the Jobs era) and the stock still took a nose dive because iPhone sales didn't match Wall Streets more aggressive estimates. That's why I wish Apple would stop giving guidance and providing sales figures. Google doesn't provide guidance and most of Apple's competitors rarely release sales figures on a consistent basis. Apple should only do the bare minimum required by the SEC.

I agree with you in principle but without these idiots on Wall Street who else would keep apple's stock super undervalued? The amazing thing is "analyst" is a job people have.

I recently read an article where multiple "analysts" in the grocery business said the future for all grocery stores is Trader Joe's. I spent a previous life time in the grocery business and can assure people that is not the case. Every industry is plagued by analysts who make money but create nothing. Not to mention they have almost no need to be accurate or correct in their analization to keep their jobs.

 

[kdarling]

I'm sure Apple sold a ton of the phones they shipped...

You have to be more precise in your wording.

Apple already counts every phone they shipped to a retailer as sold.

I believe you're talking not about what Apple sold to retailers, but what the retailers sold through to end users.

WTF are you talking about? Do you really think 40 million iPhones are sitting on shelves out there? If these aren't sold through, there's no way you're looking at more than a couple hundred thousand on shelves.

Actually, the non-sell-through amount per quarter is usually at least a million. This is partly because more retailers means more inventory in stock. It also happens when retailers overbuy.

It adds up over time. According to Apple, as of last quarter there were over 15 million iPhones sitting in retailer inventory.

The problem is that it's irrelevant to this thread. And, of course, there is a significant difference between Apple (who reports actual shipments and channel inventory) and "Android" (which combines shipment estimates of many vendors by "analysts").

You are right that Android vs iPhone is irrelevant to this thread.

What's important is Apple shipments vs sell-through for last quarter.

Wait, so because they were prepared for China, they are seeing weaker sales? What?

Yes, because the mix wasn't right.

Supposedly China retailers bought far more iPhone 5C units last quarter than they could sell. The expected effect is that they will buy fewer iPhones overall this quarter.

 

[eltonic]

I hope analysts conitnue castrating Apple for record sales, shipments etc.

The only time you gain is when you play against the market. Play ball!

 

[dumastudetto]

I hope analysts conitnue castrating Apple for record sales, shipments etc.

The only time you gain is when you play against the market. Play ball!

I certainly wouldn't want to be betting against Apple anytime soon. 2014 promises a basket of innovative new products we're all going to be rushing out to buy in massive quantities. I'm talking new iPads, Apple TV, iWatch and of course a larger iPhone 6 that will kill Android sales stone dead.

New Macs too are on the horizon and most of us will be upgrading to take advantage of the latest and greatest technologies that only Apple can deliver.

And Apple continues to drive expansion into new international markets on a daily basis.

 

[melendezest]

Good for Apple!

Unfortunately for me, it means I'll have to stay away: that sales quantity can be interpreted as people liking iOS 7 and Mr. Ive's candy-colored, 8-bit software design aesthetic.

Sigh. Alrighty, then.

 

[2IS]

Shipped. Not sold

This... Funny how so many people get excited. If this was for a Samsung phone they'd have pointed that out right away.

 

[BaldiMac]

Of course not but you say things without offering links or data

You refer to previous posts

What posts ?

Again, I'd be happy to provide a source for whatever you like. Just let me know what specifically you would like to see.

Actually, the non-sell-through amount per quarter is usually at least a million.

That's not true. Channel inventory increases and decreases.

This is partly because more retailers means more inventory in stock. It also happens when retailers overbuy.

Apple targets 4-6 weeks of channel inventory.

It adds up over time. According to Apple, as of last quarter there were over 15 million iPhones sitting in retailer inventory.

Probably about same number as the same time last year. Making it a wash.

You are right that Android vs iPhone is irrelevant to this thread.

Yep.

What's important is Apple shipments vs sell-through for last quarter.

Again, that's just bringing up an argument for arguments sake. There is no reason to think their sell through rate is significantly different from the same time last year. So comparing shipments to shipments is perfectly reasonable.

Yes, because the mix wasn't right.

Supposedly China retailers bought far more iPhone 5C units last quarter than they could sell. The expected effect is that they will buy fewer iPhones overall this quarter.

Or, as the article stated, the March quarter last year was a launch quarter in China. This year it is not.

 

[Gudi]

If Samsung is the only manufacturer who makes money with Android phones... how is that sustainable for the rest of the Android industry?

It isn't sustainable. Guess why so many phone makers get sold? Please read this!

How can all those other companies ship 140 million Android phones... and NOT make any money? That's sofa-king crazy.

The world is crazy. And phone market is in disruption.

I admit that data isn't current, but I have no knowledge that the situation has changed in any meaningful way.

 

[kdarling]

That's not true. Channel inventory increases and decreases.

No sir. The AMOUNT of increase varies a bit, but (except for perhaps early in the beginning of iPhone sales), the amount of inventory constantly increases.

In fact, it seems to be rising quicker these days than predicted back in 2013:

Probably about same number as the same time last year. Making it a wash.

Nope.

10.6 million in inventory 1Q 2013.
15.3 million in inventory 1Q 2014.

Again, that's just bringing up an argument for arguments sake. There is no reason to think their sell through rate is significantly different from the same time last year. So comparing shipments to shipments is perfectly reasonable.

As I said, what's important for this quarter is know the sell-through rates for the previous quarter.

That's what determines how much more or less retailers will be buying.

About once a year Apple runs into this situation, where retailers bought so much one quarter, that sales drop the next. Search my posts and you'll find mutliple times that Tim Cook has explained sales decreases this way.

Or, as the article stated, the March quarter last year was a launch quarter in China. This year it is not.

Good point. That, too.

 

[BaldiMac]

No sir. The AMOUNT of increase varies a bit, but (except for perhaps early in the beginning of iPhone sales), the amount of inventory constantly increases.

In fact, it seems to be rising quicker these days than predicted back in 2013:

View attachment 465630

On average, you are correct as 4-6 weeks of inventory increases with the increase in overall sales. However, channel inventory has decreased across several individual quarters. Usually prior to a launch quarter. Your chart shows this.

Nope.

10.6 million in inventory 1Q 2013.
15.3 million in inventory 1Q 2014.

You got me there. I completely mispoke without thinking about exactly what I was responding to. Where did you get your numbers from?

It's the change in channel inventory from the start of the quarter to the end of the quarter that I believe will probably be about the same as last year in proportion to the total number of iPhones shipped. Which is the relevant number when you want to discuss sold instead of shipped.

As I said, what's important for this quarter is know the sell-through rates for the previous quarter.

That's what determines how much more or less retailers will be buying.

About once a year Apple runs into this situation, where retailers bought so much one quarter, that sales drop the next. Search my posts and you'll find mutliple times that Tim Cook has explained sales decreases this way.

Fair enough. I think we were both talking about different things here.

 

[kdarling]

Where did you get your numbers from?

Transcripts of the quarterly calls from Seeking Alpha. Like this one for Q1 2014.

It only takes an email address to join and view 'em for free.

Very handy references, especially when the brass are explaining sales drops, in response to questions at the end.

Fair enough. I think we were both talking about different things here.

I think maybe we were.