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Charko said:
I know two people who look longingly at Macs (they don't want the ugly and inflexible eMac) but just can't afford that much.
A headless 'iMac' well-designed and well-made with a couple of slots would be more expensive than your average PC, but much less expensive than the present iMac.

(it would also be just as inflexible as the emac you deride)

AND people could keep their monitors.
(crappy old crt monitors)

Most of us are average earners. We'll pay a bit more (even quite a bit more) but can't afford to pay a LOT more.


There's a huge market of discontented PC-users out there and Apple should tap it.

(Why? If they are discontented, why dont they DO something?) (buy a mac?)

Only then can Apple turn the tables on Microsoft

What for? Apple makes the best hardware and OS - why do they need to compete with anyone? Why make a cheap machine? Theres no profit in it and it WEAKENS THE BRAND.

Earlier on in this very poor thread, we had "I want Windows on a Mac" or "I want OSX on a cheap Intel clone box".

FORGET IT. DREAM ON. Apple isnt a cheap company. If you cant afford the price of admission, then you dont get in.

The alternative to this is Socialism.....which isnt a bad idea, but isnt fashionable right now.

Headless iMac? NO. It isnt going to happen.

All the dumb suggestions in this thread ARE NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.

Facts - someone asked earlier how many iPods produced so far - its about 5.5 million, growing at a rate of 2+ million per quarter, but its also accelerating. Expect totals to reach 10 million by spring 2005, or earlier, depending on Santa Claus. (ipods on xmas lists)
 
Apple just needs to do one more thing: Bring ITMS to the rest of the world.
That's the only way to make sure that the Fairplay AAC becomes the undisputed king of the audio formats. Once that is complete, you know that there is only one music player that can playback protected AACs.
 
Oh Well...

Wish I had made good on my hunch 6 months ago to buy Apple stock. It's great to hear that they're doing so well, I hope the "halo" effect will bring them a little more into the mainstream, or at least allow them to play "HALO" on the iMac! :p

Isaac
 
Headless Mac

This headless Mac debate always reminds me of my days delivering pizzas for Domino's. People were always calling up wanting to order a small pizza, but we had to explain we only sold medium or large...no profit in delivering a small pizza for free. Apple only sells better or best computers...no lowly "good" versions because there are no profits.

On the other had it could be argued that Apple should forget about direct profits on the low end and make it up by selling .Mac, OS upgrades, software, extra RAM, printers, etc. Now that so much of their sales are through their own stores this makes much more sense because people will tend to buy the extras at the same place they bought their computer.
 
this is insane! when they announced that the iMac G5 will be late everyone was crying that they're gonna loose loads of money. well, it doesn't really seem to be that way. they probably would've made more if they did have the imac come out in summer.

i'm very happy with these results. now that they get lots of cash all the time, I wish they start using it on something big. buy adobe? ;)
 
Windowlicker said:
this is insane! when they announced that the iMac G5 will be late everyone was crying that they're gonna loose loads of money. well, it doesn't really seem to be that way. they probably would've made more if they did have the imac come out in summer.

I think it may be fair to say that much of the Profit has come from the iPod's 500% unit growth .... so without that financial support the figures could well have looked less encouraging. Once of the concerns I have is the drop in the Japan market for the units, but I'm sure it'll pick up with revised PMacs and the new G5 iMac.
 
bborofka said:
100 million profit is not too small. 836,000 sold Macs is.

Units shipped might be disappointing but let's not forget that Apple had no iMac to ship until the end of the quarter and all PowerMacs were constrained.
 
Savage Henry said:
I think it may be fair to say that much of the Profit has come from the iPod's 500% unit growth .... so without that financial support the figures could well have looked less encouraging. Once of the concerns I have is the drop in the Japan market for the units, but I'm sure it'll pick up with revised PMacs and the new G5 iMac.

Have you read the financials? Apple shipped 836,000 computers for $1.2 billion in revenue. They shipped 2.016 million iPods for $537 million in revenue. Their gross margin on sales for the quarter were $634 million. Clearly computers (and interest on their $5 billion on the bank) are the bulk of their profits.
 
Why we need a cheaper Mac

elgruga said:
What for? Apple makes the best hardware and OS - why do they need to compete with anyone? Why make a cheap machine? Theres no profit in it and it WEAKENS THE BRAND.

Because we need to get the market share up.

As a lone buyer, I don't care about market-share. But small market-share makes software companies (like the one I work for) uninterested in the Mac as a market, and that means less software available. It also means that some websites (online banking is a common example) don't bother to make their websites compatible with the Mac, because that's such a small (but vocal) minority.

Yeah, yeah, I know. You're going to tell me that if my online bank requires Windows (or IE) then I should drop them. That is false. Online banking is nice, but their Mac compatability is not the most important consideration in choosing a bank. I wrote them email, got a standard reply ("appreciate your input") and that's as far as I'm going to take the issue.

If you like to edit and manage photographs, you have many choices in the PC world: from the high-end Photoshop, through things like PSP and ACDsee to Microsoft's Paint and of course all the open-source stuff like GIMP and Cinepaint. With a Mac you're down to either Photoshop or GraphicConverter or that thing that they gave away on .Mac (can't remember the name). PSP is cheap and feature-wise is close enough to Photoshop to become the favorite or hobbyists, but JASC could not be bothered to port it to the Mac, because of low market-share. That's just one area, and one in which the Mac platform has traditionally been strong. Other examples can easily be found.

If Apple can get the Mac market share to above 5%, software vendors will come. Right now, for desktop applications the order of precedence is 1. Windows. 2. Linux. 3. Mac.
 
rdowns said:
Have you read the financials? Apple shipped 836,000 computers for $1.2 billion in revenue. They shipped 2.016 million iPods for $537 million in revenue. Their gross margin on sales for the quarter were $634 million. Clearly computers (and interest on their $5 billion on the bank) are the bulk of their profits.

I'm just saying that CPU gross contribution has only gone up by about $80m, compared to the iPods increase of $100m. Obviously most profit still comes from the Mac kit, but I had meant to say 'Profit Growth' in my original post :eek: and just sought to point out a geographical concern in the CPU figures.

No biggie.
 
macidiot said:
Well, considering the market could easily absorb another 100-150 million mp3 players, I don't see a slow down for awhile yet.

The numbers are easy to make:

N. America... 40-50 million
Europe... 30 million
Japan/Asia... 30 million
Rest... 25 million

Plus, its at the point where people are replacing earlier versions of the iPod. Its not like the walkman where there wasn't a compelling reason to upgrade once you had one (usually it was because the one you owned broke). Oh, and the walkman sold close to 300million units.

No telling what Apple's share will be of the market in the future, but even if they drop to 30-40%, thats still around 50 million iPods.

I agree that people are re-newing their iPods; I plan on getting a 5G even though my mini is under a year old, but those numbers seem quite large. I agree with you in North America selling the most iPods, but 50 million is really a lot...I'd say more like 20-35 million will sell, at most. Europe/Australia at 30 million also seems like a stretch; I'd bring it down to 20-30 million. I think Japan will sell more than any other country if you find the ratio of iPods to people. 20 million would be my guess. The rest of Asia, like South America and Africa (i.e. the two other populated continents that I haven't mentioned) will sell next to nothing compared to the other continents and countries around the world. The per capita income is so low in some of those countries that an iPod, let alone a computer, are simply out of the question. I think the "rest" would sell five million units, no more.

These are just my figures, and it still adds up to a lot of iPods anyway, especially if people want to upgrade every two or three years....
 
Go Apple! It's Your Birthday! It's Your Birthday, Birthday, Birthday! Great results, and the iMac G5 (despite a so-so graphics card) should do really well.
 
Apple market share: which market?

Steve Jobs said:
Except that we do have that critical mass now. In other words, the thing about Apple's market share that you have to understand is, when you get under the hood, we don't sell computers, en masse, to sit on every desk of every corporation. So when you take that out, the remaining markets -- we have a much higher market share. Our consumer market share has doubled in the past few years -- doubled. So our market share in the creative-professional marketplace is over 50%. So when you look at the markets that we compete in, our market share isn't 5% or 3% -- it's 10% to 60%. In some cases, it's up at 90%. So that's sort of the myth of the market share. If you throw in the boatloads of PC's that are sold to corporations, then that waters down our market share. But that's not a market we compete in, you know? That's like saying: Let's add the computers that are sold, you know, on Neptune.
Link.
 
Actually, these results are horrible...

if you look at apple as a computer company. they have lost cpu sales from 3rd quarter. Analysts look at Apple foremost as a computer company. If Apple didn't have the ipod, they would be in the red.

I know some people out there are going to say the ipod represents a new apple, but the ipod does not provide for sustained growth over the next 10 years! with competition coming from all sides, they're market share has nowhere to go but down!

It is good that year to year growth has gained, but that was ALL from notebooks. I haven't seen anything indicating a new ibook or powerbook anytime soon, have you? Apple is in trouble. :(
 
synp said:
we need to get the market share up.
Larger marketshare would be nice, but it is not the be-all for computers. The Mac is doing quite well currently in its niche.

You're going to tell me that if my online bank requires Windows (or IE) then I should drop them.
I won't, because it's true that Real World considerations often trump platform preference. But it is rare to find a bank that doesn't work either with IE Mac or with a hacked agent string in Safari. And, with all the security problems that IE Win has had, and with a growing number of people moving from IE Win to other browsers, I think the problem of IE-specific sites is going to ease in the future.

If you like to edit and manage photographs, you have many choices in the PC world: from the high-end Photoshop, through things like PSP and ACDsee to Microsoft's Paint and of course all the open-source stuff like GIMP and Cinepaint. With a Mac you're down to either Photoshop or GraphicConverter or that thing that they gave away on .Mac (can't remember the name).
GIMP is available for the Mac.

PSP is cheap and feature-wise is close enough to Photoshop to become the favorite or hobbyists, but JASC could not be bothered to port it to the Mac, because of low market-share.

Photoshop Elements, with much of the power of the pro version, is cheaper than Paint Shop Pro. There are also various shareware apps available.


If Apple can get the Mac market share to above 5%, software vendors will come. Right now, for desktop applications the order of precedence is 1. Windows. 2. Linux. 3. Mac.
If that is indeed their order, then they're foolish, as Mac desktop share is larger than Linux, and its user-base has a history of actually paying for software.
 
myapplseedshurt said:
if you look at apple as a computer company. they have lost cpu sales from 3rd quarter. Analysts look at Apple foremost as a computer company. If Apple didn't have the ipod, they would be in the red.
Remember that the bulk of Apple CPU sales are still in the US, where PC sales growth this year has been awful. Last quarter Apple did far better than average in its home territory, and even with the just-ended quarter's supply troubles they managed to keep up about the same growth pace as the rest of the industry here. If they were making a serious effort to sell internationally, I'd be more concerned.
 
synp said:
Because we need to get the market share up.

As a lone buyer, I don't care about market-share. But small market-share makes software companies (like the one I work for) uninterested in the Mac as a market, and that means less software available. It also means that some websites (online banking is a common example) don't bother to make their websites compatible with the Mac, because that's such a small (but vocal) minority.

Yeah, yeah, I know. You're going to tell me that if my online bank requires Windows (or IE) then I should drop them. That is false. Online banking is nice, but their Mac compatability is not the most important consideration in choosing a bank. I wrote them email, got a standard reply ("appreciate your input") and that's as far as I'm going to take the issue.

...

If Apple can get the Mac market share to above 5%, software vendors will come. Right now, for desktop applications the order of precedence is 1. Windows. 2. Linux. 3. Mac.

FINALLY someone seems to understand!

Getting "switchers" over the Mac, even if its on a headless sub-$800 box does NOT dilute the brand! In the conf call, Pete wants to concentrate on those markets that make money and as a shareholder, so do I. But lets understand some seemingly basic truths about things.

We can all agree on the apparent truth of the old saying "the only certain things in life are death and taxes" right? Simplistic I know, but work with me. The same sort of truth applies to the statement "Once a Mac user, almost always a Mac user" as well as "Mac users almost always UPGRADE".

If Peter wants to make money, then maybe he's right that he won't make any IMMEDIATE cash on a sub-$800 headless box. But the long term value of having that user on the Mac platform in term of software sales, add-on sales of upgrades and peripherals, and future upgrades to larger, more expensive Macs is almost a dead certainty.

To get a sizeable chunk of the PC using world to make the "switch" we have to, in a sense, treat them like infants. Those of you who are parents of infants can understand what I'm talking about. PC users have bought and paid for certain things and they feel "safe" (lets leave the virus question alone for a moment) with those hardware choices. But like an infant, we can't try take away both their security blanket and their pacifier at the same time, otherwise they scream and hold on to both. So we give them a sub-$800 box, let them re-use their monitor, their 3-button USB mouse, maybe even their USB keyboard so that they don't feel so totally stripped of their security blanket when they give up their PC/Windows pacifier. They're more willing to try something new if it isn't too expensive in terms of both initial $$ and their "security blanket" feeling of being able to re-use some components.

Once they get comfortable on the Mac, its almost guaranteed they'll upgrade and start buying the software, hardware, and higher-end machines that Peter would like them to. And at that point, they're generally Mac users for life.

We get enough of those to get the Mac platform back into the 10% marketshare range, and the "marginalization" of the Mac will likely slide to a halt and things like Online banking, software availability, etc will be taken care of, which will make the whole Mac community more vibrant and viable.

Frankly, it doesn't have to be a powerhouse, expensive to produce unit either. Look at the eMac and the iBooks. The unit could easily be a headless eMac with a G4 processor. Given the sales numbers for both the eMac and the iBook, the G4 is still a very viable alternative to the G5 for alot of users. If Apple can make money on an eMac now, removing the CRT only lowers the manufacturing cost. If you could take the eMac capabilities, put them in a small headless box and sell it for $699, I'd be willing to bet you a very expensive lunch that the Mac platform would get _piles_ of switchers to try it and then be hooked for life.

Ronnie
 
Which is why folks who want something cheaper dont order take away Pizzas from Dominos and go to McDonalds or someone else instead. There is profit to be had in the low cost market if you want it.




Craiger77 said:
This headless Mac debate always reminds me of my days delivering pizzas for Domino's. People were always calling up wanting to order a small pizza, but we had to explain we only sold medium or large...no profit in delivering a small pizza for free. Apple only sells better or best computers...no lowly "good" versions because there are no profits.
.
 
At the time of this post, Apple has beaten the revised "1 Year Target Estimate" ($44). It was raised from $39 to $44 a few weeks ago. Good job Apple. Still more than 2 months to go. Maybe they need to update the Year End Target again. ^_^ $50 anybody?

Edit:

Merrill Lynch just raised Apple Terget to $49

In related news:

Thursday, October 14, 2004 9:58:53 AM ET
First Albany

NEW YORK, October 14 (newratings.com) – Analysts at First Albany reiterate their "buy" rating on Apple Computer Inc (AAPL.NAS). The target price has been raised from $44 to $46.

In a research note published this morning, the analysts mention that the company reported its 4Q FY04 earnings and revenue results significantly ahead of expectations. Apple Computer's revenue upside during the quarter was primarily driven by the robust iPod unit shipment growth, First Albany says. Apple Computer announced its 1Q FY05 earnings and revenue guidance significantly ahead of the current consensus expectations, the analysts add.

http://www.newratings.com/new2/beta/article_495051.html
 
desdomg said:
There is profit to be had in the low cost market if you want it.

Tell that to Gateway. Tell that to any of a large number of low-end and white box manufacturers that are now out of business.

Low end companies have practically no R&D costs, and buy cheap components that are often of low quality. Do you want Apple to reduce the research it does, and start pumping out poor quality boxes with razor-thin profit margins? That's just not a space that Apple can compete in effectively.

In any case, as I'll repeat, the eMac is a pretty sweet machine for very little money. No, it doesn't sell for less than $500, and yes, it has a monitor (a rather nice one, in my opinion). But as a value proposition, it is hard to beat. That is Apple's entry-level machine, and I can't imagine why anyone would say Apple doesn't have an affordable machine at $800.
 
elgruga said:
What for? FORGET IT. DREAM ON.
Headless iMac? NO. It isnt going to happen.

All the dumb suggestions in this thread ARE NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.

Apple may never bring back the Cube, but you dont know for sure and you dont have to patronize the ones who think they will. Shuttle seems to be doing well with thier shoe box case, and I can tell you there are still plenty of us Mac fans for whom the Cube still represents our ideal form factor...
You might very well be right, but cant you say it in a better way?

Besides if Apple simply cant make a G5 Powerbook this next year a G5 Cube might at least give people something positive to talk about. Keep the same 8x8 but offer a videocard slot, the digital I/O of the imac is great so go with that... most users dont need a PCI slot.
 
Growing market share is an important goal...but producing a headless machine is certainly not the only way to do it. And it's arguable if it's even the best way to do it.

Staking out selected targetd niches and dominate those. Expand from there. Then select new targeted niches...and expand from THERE (while still dominating your traditional niches). That certainly expands market share...and it may be a surer and less risky way.
 
market share is misleading

synp said:
Because we need to get the market share up.

As a lone buyer, I don't care about market-share. But small market-share makes software companies (like the one I work for) uninterested in the Mac as a market, and that means less software available. It also means that some websites (online banking is a common example) don't bother to make their websites compatible with the Mac, because that's such a small (but vocal) minority.

... Right now, for desktop applications the order of precedence is 1. Windows. 2. Linux. 3. Mac.

Actually, if I look at the numbers that our software (Magnolia, a free open source J2EE content management system -> http://www.magnolia.info) has, I can see that about 50% of the downloads are non-windows users - with Mac being at maybe 35% of total downloads.

You can check for yourself: http://sourceforge.net/project/showfiles.php?group_id=86297

For me as a software developer that means, that while there might be a bigger market in the windows world, its also more crowded, and therefore my actual number of customers level out.

After all, there is a market for BMW's and Mercedes, who have combined about the same market share than Apple.
 
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