In the US Apple has zero incentive to move away from the common model. There is NO way the iPhone would have become as popular as it is without subsidies. Americans weren't going to pay $700-$800 for a phone...no matter how great it was.
Apple required the carriers to buy a certain amount of subisdized units..which basically guaranteed sales. (Remember the deal Sprint had to sign to get access to the iPhone.)
Though this is changing with AT&T pushing people to their new family plans that don't include subsidized phones. They are making it a bit more palatable by asking for no money down and stretching the payments out over 18 or 26 months.
Do you think Apple is interested in that model? He77 now. They'll want 100% of their cash up front - just like they always have.
Raising the price by $100 for the 'innovation' of the same screen size that other phones have is typical Apple hubris under Tim Cook. At least under Steve Jobs felt like there was something special about Apple products.
First of all, yes, I believe Americans would continue to pay $700-800 dollars for a smartphone. I'm not sure if you are trying to argue that they will be less willing to pay for an iPhone, but more willing to pay for a similarly priced GS5 or M8. Or if they would just turn to cheaper solutions (this I may agree with, but I think Apple's built its brand up enough).
The other issue is the carrier cost. It isn't just that Apple requires carriers to carry X amount of iPhones, it is also that their cost, that is higher than normal, which results in their lower margins. But they'll have to weigh the benefits of margins vs revenue, b/c without iPhone, their revenue would drop.
I still don't understand it perfectly, what the difference, IN CARRIER COST, is for AT&T subsidizing an iPhone versus T-Mobile financing an iPhone. Apple obviously billed both stores for their inventory before the sale.
Last night I saw an ad for GS5 with Sprint contract for $0 and a free Galaxy Tab. What do you think that means? Is it just Sprint being desperate for customers?
Also there are GS5 two for one promotions out there. So while the price you quote is a price out there, I wonder how many folks are paying that.
With Sprint it is $0 down, but payments for 24 months. And with Verizon you get locked into 2 2-year contracts. In both instances, it is the carrier that is doing the promo, not Samsung, so the cost is eaten up by the carrier and the money is made back on the contract.
Anyway you slice it, carriers need iPhone and Apple needs the carriers, but I don't think iPhone would become irrelevant. Just look across the board at US carriers, and their best selling phones are almost always iPhone. The carriers would face more attrition by letting their customers potentially walk away. But I'm sure in the unlikely event that there is a split, some financial institution will step in to finance Apple's phones.