I do not think the situation is analogous.Yeah...just like Apple's music player and smart phone were overpriced and thus predicted to fail.
Yeppers... Apple, one of the most successful companies on the globe with 150,000 employees worldwide has no idea what they're doing.
Cars have been manufactured in large volumes for a century. Almost all modern manufacturing concepts have been created in the car industry (see "Toyota Production System"). The product has been essentially the same for a century, and even its main components (four wheels, engine, steering system) have remained the same. In case someone wants to disagree by saying that EVs are new, please have a look at Detroit Electric.
All development in the car industry has been evolution, not revolution. On the other hand, Apple has been operating in quickly evolving fields where decade-old technology is outdated and where completely new concepts have been developed. A smart phone has very little in common with the old landline.
Consumers are willing to pay a few dollars' or euros' premium for a nice smartphone, the "Apple tax". However, the absolute amount of money compared to typical consumers' income is not that high. (I once calculated that replacing my phone with Apple's top model every two years costs me about one dollar/euro per day. Rich, eh?) But cars are another story, most people just cannot pay 20 % extra for a car with a nicer badge.
Car prices are determined by fierce competition. If you take cars with similar specifications (size, performance, EV range, refinement), you end up having cars with similar price tags. The market for real luxury cars is different but insignificant in the larger scale.
Apple has been able to collect a lot of money with mobile devices because it has a superior infrastructure. But is there any opportunity to do the same with cars? Tesla has tried to create a great charging infrastructure for EVs, but the advantage is melting due to other charging networks and legislators wanting to have as many public chargers as possible.
Apple could make a great UX for a car, no doubt. But that is not the same as car manufacturing. It is possible Apple sees an opportunity there, but there are good arguments against that business model, as well.
If Apple were able to create a functional self-driving car, that would be a real game changer. Many different business models could become possible. But why would Apple be the one to do that? There are dozens of companies working on AVs, and the goal seems to be very far. There are very few level 3 cars in the world, and we should be talking about level 5 or very advanced level 4. There has been little progress during the last few years.
My guess is that from Apple's point of view the car market is just too big to be out of. Apple tries to find possible business models, technologies and collaborators without having a clear target at this point.