The elephant in the room we all keep forgetting too is market saturation.
- Android - dominant mobile operating system with over 3 billion
- iOS - 1.2 billion
The reality is, most on Android are sticking with the platform or choosing it because its a cheaper, better ecosystem for them. On the Apple side, most are simply keeping the devices much longer; if you live in some cities, you will see many users with the newer model. But I wouldn't be surprised if most of these are from trade ins. But outside of that, I still see a vast majority with what appear to be iPhone 11's and iPhone 12's.
I noticed on the public transportation I take, I normally see elderly folks with either iPhone XS, 11 and standard 12. Working adults I will see with iPhone 12 Pro Maxes and standard 12's. A lot of women tend to have the standard 6.1 iPhone 13. The mini tends to be a range of demographics: some older men, some younger men that give a sense of I just want a smartphone for the basics - basically the "I don't live on my phone crowd".
What these observations tell me though is that people will just keep their devices as long as they can and upgrade when they feel like they really need to. I personally have been carrying this logic with my iPhone X; I just don't feel motivated to upgrade even though I could easily outright buy a new iPhone Pro Max every year. I just haven't find anything essential since 2017 that has given me enough of a reason to do so.
Other elephants in the room:
The world economy, that $1,000 on a new iPhone could be used for expenses over several months: groceries, paying bills, replace a broken lightbulb or something, water, sewage, gas. Reading Elon Musk tweets, or a news story on Facebook or taking a high resolution 48 Megapixel photo of your dog, cat or tree in your neighborhood is not life changing.
Ultimately, none of this is bad for Apple and what means is, they are likely gonna get repeat upgraders, but those are gonna be over time. Its good news because those iPhone XS, 12, 13 users will likely become iPhone 15, 16, 17 upgrades and cycle repeats itself.