Well maybe next year
Like others, I too was hoping for Apps on the ATV. But after watching the keynote, I have a better understanding of why this did not happen. I also understand why if Apple was inventing a new product for the TV, be it a TV, upgraded Apple TV, or some other Media Control Box, why it wouldn't appear now.
When Steve says we "cracked the code" on TV, I do believe that they created a better method of the TV user experience. However, this doesn't immediately translate into mass acceptance. Thus, why other products in this area have failed. Same with Tablets. I believe that this is also part of cracking the code. Its a mind-shift and the way Apple does this is to work things in phases by bringing its audience along for the ride. Add additional twists for control that are easy to digest in steps and they and before you know it its common place, which makes these transitions acceptable to other markets.
You can see this shift on the computer side. Based on what is shown is iOS6 & Mountain Lion, you can see that Apple also did this in stages with Lion. They eased into some convergence of iOS into Lion and have upped the ante even further in Mountain Lion and the lines have blurred further. Technologies that are prevalent and refined in software (iOS6 & Mountain Lion) and current and New Hardware (New Macbook Pro, iPad and iPhone4s) play a pivotal role fr a TV product.
- Air Play
- Retina Display
- Siri
- Enhanced Mutli-Touch
- Messages
- Further Social Network Integration
I think Siri is the key. The way Apple rolled it out makes perfect sense in hindsight. Give it just enough of a feature set to entice a user base. Release it in Beta form, so that the user base of the 4s will use it and enhance its vocabulary and functions. Tout it in commercials to bring awareness of this method of control. After the Keynote and the fact that a Siri button will be placed in cars, within the next 12 months is huge. The timing is key as well. iOS6 will be released in the fall with a further commands and functions. Additional API's will be written for Siri and more 3rd party apps will be Siri enabled. By the time the button will be in cars, the new iPhone would have been released and those that had the iPhone 4 will be up for an upgrade. The Ipad3 will also get Siri at the same time so the majority of Apple uses of iProducts will have a Siri enabled device. I know Mountain Lion has dictation, which is probably based on Siri algorithms for speech recognition to text, so I would be surprised if Siri is added to mountain lion as an update at some point as well.
Apps will be released to be Siri enabled. They will also be released to be Retina Display enabled as well. Just makes sense. More things will also become air-play enabled. Apple usually has something up its sleeve so I would be there is a piece to the technology or iOS6 that will not be touted until the new hardware is released. Last year it was Siri
. Once iOS6 is released and apps are updated it would then make the transition to a TV product that much easier. Apps can be easily ported to a TV product and would work from the get go. Resolution and control of many apps would have already been done to port to TV. Once that Siri button starts showing up in actual cars is probably the time that the TV product, whether it be an ATV, Media Center, actual TV or all of the above will be released.
The earliest I see an ATV being opened up for apps is in the fall when iOS6 is released, new iTunes, and new iPhone hardware. Positions sales of ATV's in line for the holiday season. Although, Apple seems to have no issue selling products regardless of the time of the year. The better bet though is when the new iPad is released in the spring. This is when the last ATV was released and about this time is when the 2013 car models start their cycle as well.
TV 4, the Studios might use that against Apple in negotiations for more content. 
