I just don't expect smartphones to change dramatically year over year. I also don't expect normal users to change their smartphone more often than every two year (or when they break or lose their phone, a not insignificant number by itself). The question isn't how good is iPhone 5S compared to i5, because I don't think the vast majority of i5 owners will be on the market when i5S is launched. The question is how does the i5S compare to the other premium phones on the market. I think it will compare very nicely as I believe we now know most of the premium Androids for 2013 and I believe the i5s will compare very nicely to the HTC One and the GS4. As long as Apple can hold its 20% of the smartphone market at its premium prices, I see no issues.
Also, I believe the tablet market is going to be bigger than the phone market eventually. "Normal" for the middle and upper class folks in the world will be to own one phone and three or four tablets. Just like "normal" is now to have a computer at work and a computer at home.
Did Cook basically just tell us "no new announcements till fall"?
You should have seen the conspiracy nut jobs at CNN who thought Samsung's illuminati connections shorted Apple's stock. It was the funniest thing ever.
Also, notice how the most paranoid people own Apple products. Alex Jones and Rush Limbaugh come to mind. Is there something about Apple products that entice weirdos and the black helicopter crowd?
Can't wait to see how analysts are going to spin this into more doom and gloom.
What conspiracy theory? I'm not suggesting any conspiracy - simply suggesting that the level of boom in the smartphone and tablet industries gave an overvalued stock price for AAPL, when the reality was, those types of margins and growth weren't sustainable in the long term.
I agree. The stock was vastly overvalued. But still. Until profit margins start improving, there is no way AAPL can sustain any growth.
- 97% of mobile malware on Android.
- iPad accounted for 82% of all North American tablet traffic in March.
What conspiracy theory? I'm not suggesting any conspiracy - simply suggesting that the level of boom in the smartphone and tablet industries gave an overvalued stock price for AAPL, when the reality was, those types of margins and growth weren't sustainable in the long term.
Earnings were down, significantly, year over year.
Everybody knows how something should be valued after the fact. If profits had continued to grow at the rate they had been growing, the valuation would have been entirely justified. The conspiracy theory (heard here every quarter, without fail) is that the analysts are deliberately getting it wrong, a storyline that doesn't seem to change even when they get it almost exactly right.
So much cash on hand. Why not spend more of it on R&D?
it was irrational to expect apple to continue to grow at the rate it did from 2003-2012.
You should have seen the conspiracy nut jobs at CNN who thought Samsung's illuminati connections shorted Apple's stock. It was the funniest thing ever.
Also, notice how the most paranoid people own Apple products. Alex Jones and Rush Limbaugh come to mind. Is there something about Apple products that entice weirdos and the black helicopter crowd?
Why? They already have better margins than most of the industry (if not all). Are you seriously suggesting they need to maintain the levels of profit they've enjoyed during these smartphone and tablet booms?
Do people not realize what an anomaly it is that a manufacturer, which sells (worldwide) roughly half the number of phones the top dog does (Samsung) would still have 3x the profit share of that top dog?
How does anyone assume this is sustainable in the long term......if they keep their profit margins around 35-40% and maintain a majority of the profit share in these markets, while creating new markets with products like the iWatch and iTV, AAPL should see growth - then again, no one ever accused the market of moving intelligently......
By what metric do you believe Apple was/is overvalued? Please compare to other companies in the industry. I would be particularly interested in companies with higher growth but lower P/E ratios.
If I was Tim, I would be very concerned about the fact that 53% of my revenue was coming from a single product line that gets refreshed just once a year.
At some point, everyone who wants an iPhone will have one (or two).
If the upgrade from the 5 to 5S is similar to the 4 to 4S, I don't see Apple holding a lead over the competition. I've seen the HTC One and it is a nice phone. IMO, the iPhone 5 looks dated next to it.
The profit margins fell 10% YoY. If they can grow revenue only at the expense of the profit margins it means that the profits will keep falling. Why exactly should the stock grow then?
AAPL, not Apple - and WAS overvalued due to their immense growth and profit margin during the smartphone and tablet booms when they all but owned both industries.
Now that competitors are getting better, prices will come down to add to the competition, hence lower profit margins - which are already higher than most other companies out there.
I just think analysts got caught up in the growth and a buying frenzy caused the stock to skyrocket, when the reality was the growth (or those outrageous profit margins) wasn't sustainable.
Oh I don't think they are deliberately getting it wrong - they just expected too much.....
Case-in-point, Apple hits and slightly exceed guidance last quarter but analysts were all over the place with outrageous expectations. The stock plummets.
I just think analysts got caught up in the huge growth explosion and didn't recognize the end coming. Nothing deliberate about it (at least I don't think so).
Along with the low profit margins on the iPad Mini, I would be concerned with reports saying around 30%-40% of iPhone purchases since the iPhone 5 launch were for one of the older models. If iPhone sales growth is slowing as the earning reports seems to indicate, this is going to be a huge concern for investors going forward.