graph looks clearly seasonal to me. downward trend at the moment is the same as it always is when the iDevices are near end of life and new model is coming. trend is still up.
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Apple Reports Q3 2013 Quarterly Results: $6.9 Billion Profit on $35.3 Billion in Revenue [Call Concluded]
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That's a silly to say because market cap is one thing: supply and demand of the market, thus "market" cap. Amazon has been losing money but its stock price has been rising. Reed's hasn't profited for 15 years but the stock price has increased by 5 times in the last year! How would you explain that with your silly assumption?
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The profits are down two quarters in a row. YoY quarter result are abysmal. Where exactly have you found an upward trend? The trend is down. Profits are falling just not as fast as stock market expected.
You should run Apple then, you know, since their current release schedule isn't working in spite of the billions they pore in from profit.
Year over year comparisons are only helpful for stable yearly cycles. If you sell laundry detergent, the market demand is stable year over year, and such comparisons indicate the state of the company.
In the past Apple scheduled product releases throughout the year to shape performance. Since last year, Apple has changed that cycle, either deliberately or by circumstance. That it's happened 2 years in a row indicates plan, not misfortune.
Last year and this year, Apple changed to releasing all its new products at the end of the calendar year.
Year over year comparison breaks, as a measure of performance for the first year of such a dislocation.
It seems crazy that this is a deliberate strategy, at the moment.
Only this time next year, will we see the wisdom or not of such a strategy.
Clearly Cook is confident, as he's pegged more of his pay to share price, but he's also betting the viability of Apple as a company, by putting all its eggs into the Christmas shopping basket.
Interesting to watch the strategy - boring as all s*it, listening to all the simplistic and irrelevant speculation and analysis. Like all news at the moment - it's all fear and sensationalism, and no intelligent analysis.
In the past Apple scheduled product releases throughout the year to shape performance. Since last year, Apple has changed that cycle, either deliberately or by circumstance. That it's happened 2 years in a row indicates plan, not misfortune.
Last year and this year, Apple changed to releasing all its new products at the end of the calendar year.
Year over year comparison breaks, as a measure of performance for the first year of such a dislocation.
It seems crazy that this is a deliberate strategy, at the moment.
- It breaks analysts' measures, which will smash share price.
- The competition can exploit gaps in the product cycle for 3 quarters of the year.
- As customers, we don't have the cash to buy all our new computers and devices all at once.
Only this time next year, will we see the wisdom or not of such a strategy.
Clearly Cook is confident, as he's pegged more of his pay to share price, but he's also betting the viability of Apple as a company, by putting all its eggs into the Christmas shopping basket.
Interesting to watch the strategy - boring as all s*it, listening to all the simplistic and irrelevant speculation and analysis. Like all news at the moment - it's all fear and sensationalism, and no intelligent analysis.
You might see this as an issue, or a huge potential.
I think Apple will do the right thing, cannibalize its own high end phone sales, introduce low cost iPhones to cover all price points, and own the market in the same way they did with the iPod.
The competition is much stronger in smart phones, and the market much bigger, so they won't own anywhere near the 70% they do in iPod. But I think far from trying to "hold on" to their existing market share, they will grow it steadily. They have the better products by and large, and they are pretty close to having perfected distribution and manufacturing, two things they have been lagging behind Samsung, Nokia, and everyone in the mobile industry.
Tim Cook is smart, I am sure he'll see this as the way forward too. In the past you have to realize Apple was severely restricted in what they could do - they had trouble making enough phones, for the most part. Samsung had the advantage of being able to build 400M+ phones / year already - Apple started from zero. It takes a while to get manufacturing down.
Here's what I see:
- Fix manufacturing so Apple can make as many phones as it wants / needs
- Fix distribution so everyone can see and buy iPhones. They started selling through small mom and pop stores in India and this is the way to own the entire Asian market. SE Asia for sure, and also China. Most phones are sold in those mom and pop shops, it's very different from the west and subsidy systems. This alone should result in a 10% - 20% gain in units sold, minimum!
- Introduce new lower priced models to enter markets they have not so far - $200 unsubsidized should be possible
- Keep the high end lead. It's Apple so they want that but IMO compared to the other things in my list this is the hardest way to make money.
The only way that is not going to happen is if Apple is too much in love with their 40% margins on high end iPhones. I don't think they'll make that mistake. I believe they were forced into this position by their weakness in manufacturing, e.g. not able to make enough for very long stretches of time.
Another thing about distribution: When I walk through the mall here in SE Asia, I see Samsung, Samsung, Samsung everywhere. The iPhone is sold only in some shops and not nearly as visible - you kind of have to search for it. It only sells because of pre-existing demand. Apple severely needs to up their sales floor presence and for that to happen they need to offer deals to all the small mom and pop shops selling phones. Like Samsung does....
i remember those days when Macs used to be the backbone of Apple
iPhone and iPad sales means more importance to iOS and stuff (not a bad thing at all), but this takes their focus away from my favorite product that is Macs/OS X.
This also means more hardware changes in iPhone/iPad, while there Mac line can wait.
iPhone and iPad sales means more importance to iOS and stuff (not a bad thing at all), but this takes their focus away from my favorite product that is Macs/OS X.
This also means more hardware changes in iPhone/iPad, while there Mac line can wait.
That's a silly to say because market cap is one thing: supply and demand of the market, thus "market" cap. Amazon has been losing money but its stock price has been rising. Reed's hasn't profited for 15 years but the stock price has increased by 5 times in the last year! How would you explain that with your silly assumption?
Because it is based on what investors expect to happen, not on what has happened already.
You also don't seem to know what market cap means.
For quite a while, I've believed that Apple has certain "standings" in particular categories.
For example, their iPod is almost certainly the king in mp3 player category. Heck, I don't even know anyone who refers to them as "mp3"s anymore.
Not far behind, I also believe that the iPad is king in the tablet category.
Now, iPhone, not sure when comparing iOS vs Android "users" (not sales!) I like them, but obviously there is legitimate competition in the smartphone market.
Don't flame me, but I do not believe their laptop/desktop lineup is top. Top price, probably. =P I feel that the performance is lacking, however I will commend their stylish looks. And popularity. They've managed to hook most teenagers to shell out for their MBA's and MBP's to become mainstream.
For example, their iPod is almost certainly the king in mp3 player category. Heck, I don't even know anyone who refers to them as "mp3"s anymore.
Not far behind, I also believe that the iPad is king in the tablet category.
Now, iPhone, not sure when comparing iOS vs Android "users" (not sales!) I like them, but obviously there is legitimate competition in the smartphone market.
Don't flame me, but I do not believe their laptop/desktop lineup is top. Top price, probably. =P I feel that the performance is lacking, however I will commend their stylish looks. And popularity. They've managed to hook most teenagers to shell out for their MBA's and MBP's to become mainstream.
I think it's actually three quarters of y/y earnings decline now. Yet I see your view as excessively gloomy. The stock had been on a monstrous trajectory when it peaked at over $700 last year. The company was setting growth standards that were impossible to sustain, and when investors figured that out, they quickly gave the stock a 40% haircut. What investors need to think about now is whether they believe the end is nigh, or if Apple is going to become a growth story again.
I think you don't know what it means if you think I don't know what it means. You may think you know but if you think I don't know then you don't know.
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Oh boy...you're one of those people. So just to recap (and because it's hilarious putting things like this on display)
Apple is overpriced
Most people know this
They are too brainwashed to stop buying it
You should sit down before you hurt yourself.
Gotta love people who rewrite economic theory and expect to be taken seriously. Someone get this guy a Nobel prize.
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In the emerging markets alone, they could 'blow off the charts' with that fully featured, but lower-priced iPhone. And I have a sneaky suspicion, they would sell very well here too, although that would obviously be somewhat at the expense of the rumored 5s.
Without iPhone 6 released now (this year), with bigger screen, I can see Apple shares falling to sub $250 this year
Now, will that piss off shareholders off or what...
iPhone 5S will NOT cut it anymore I'm afraid...
Those days are over...
P.S; Just watch these shares coming down.
I predict Apple shares to be sub $250 by the end of this year alone...
Mark my words
Now, will that piss off shareholders off or what...
iPhone 5S will NOT cut it anymore I'm afraid...
Those days are over...
P.S; Just watch these shares coming down.
I predict Apple shares to be sub $250 by the end of this year alone...
Mark my words
He also said that when the iPad mini was coming, and it was about to cut profits per unit in half. I don't expect a major new category coming that will suddenly dwarf iPhones and iPads or even Macs. It is all about growth of existing product lines. I want an iPad mini with Retina display and a cheaper iPhone as much as everyone, but that doesn't mean profits will also grow. This might very well be the case, but we have no hint of it actually happening. As of now there is only fantasy of growth.
it is and always has been more about perceived growth potential than current results
The graph.
Draw a trend line from the left hand of the graph to the right hand of the graph and it is still up.
Oh i'm sure apple are doomed. They're so doomed they're trying to figure out what to do with the mountains of cash in the bank.
Year on year according to that graph is still up, and we're still in the biggest economic downturn in the history of man. For them to even be flat would be an achievement given the economic situation in the eurozone and the states - given that apple are purely a premium/luxury device company (i.e., things people DONT NEED), as opposed to say a producer of white goods (which people NEED - no one buys a fridge on impulse for example) like samsung.
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That's a silly to say because market cap is one thing: supply and demand of the market, thus "market" cap. Amazon has been losing money but its stock price has been rising. Reed's hasn't profited for 15 years but the stock price has increased by 5 times in the last year! How would you explain that with your silly assumption?
Market Capitalization = # shares outstanding x share price.
Market Capitalization is most certainly affected by share price seeing as it comprises one of the two variables.
Supply and demand? Yeah sure, it effects the per share price which effects market capitalization. Supply and demand in and of itself is determined by a myriad of factors analyzed by people way above my pay grade. The two are always in equilibrium in a liquid market and the equilibrium sets the per share price. That is why any widely traded stock has values that change by the minute.
Walstreet sees a lot of future potential for Amazon and Netflix, thus a sky high P/E ratio. They do not see that in Apple thus the low ratio. Apple's market cap seems to be more representative of their earnings and assets in the present or very near future.
Also, Apple's profits depend on a large margin. Margins are very vulnerable and a regression to the mean, or at least close to it, is almost inevitable. Apple isn't a super luxury brand like Chanel or Louis Vuitton with perpetual margins and real exclusivity. Thus their financial health is dependent both on volume as well as a healthy margin.
Its in Apples DNA to out innovate competition, not out marketing them. iPod mini and iPad mini are examples for lower priced alternatives from Apple. But with iPhones Apple opted for selling last years model for less, instead of building a completely new line of phones. Which is a good way for utilizing existing production lines longer and partly reason for those high profit margins.
With iPhone 5 they had the chance to introduce the new sized phone next to the old size and continue both. They didn't. If they do introduce a new line of cheaper iPhones, I expect the majority of Apples customers to immediately switch to the new model and abandon the expensive iPhone forever. The question is, how many former Android users can be convinced with a cheaper iPhone?
And does Apple really want to compete with Samsung on price? I doubt it.
Mac Net Sales Surprising
Why are the Mac net sales so low? Apple recently ditched the MacBook Pro 17" which I was very disappointed by. But I found this article which did shed a little light as to why....
zdnet article
Why are the Mac net sales so low? Apple recently ditched the MacBook Pro 17" which I was very disappointed by. But I found this article which did shed a little light as to why....
zdnet article
Neither you nor I know what will happen in the future or what Apple has up its sleeve. You're taking a very pessimistic view and that's fine. It's happened many times in Apple's history. I chose not to do so. Maybe I'm just a fanboy with my head in the sand. I guess time will tell.
