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I bought at 85 a few years ago. Of course, I sold 2 years ago. Made a nice little prophet, but could have been so much more.

Any chance your prophet can tell us what AAPL will do in the future? I'd rather not buy at $600/share if it's going to collapse!!

Having a prophet must be nice.....

:p
 
Oh ok, no worries!

I do wonder how much further it can rise at this point
The logic behind short term stock market is so subjective and unpredictable than I don't waste my time with it. But in the long term, it seems to work.
 
Depends on what you mean by wealthy. Luck has produced a few millionaires. But look at the list of the world's wealthiest ... Among billionaires there isn't a single one of them who arrived there, and, most importantly, STAYED there, on luck.

Have you ever heard of Mark Cuban? Do you know how he made all his money?
 
Evidently there were a lot of investors who set sell orders at $600, since it tumbled to $584 in minutes, which probably triggered buy orders at $585, since it is back above $590 at this moment.

The stock market tends to make sense over the long term, but over short periods of time (and a month is short term), it can act very strangely.

Of course, with a price so high, even small changes look pronounced. If the market in general is up 1%, that is a rise of $0.32 for Microsoft, and $5.90 for APPL.
 
com'on Apple, give a long time supporter a break... how about some discounts?
 
And that's why I'm not buying now ... and if I could figure out where it is going next, I would make a lot more money than I do now. :p

A expect a stock split to lower their per share price and tighten up their standing. Imagine someone who bought a single share of Microsoft stock at the very beginning... They would be worth a whole hell of a lot of money, and shares.
 
It's as I told a close friend yesterday, buying AAPL is not an investment strategy. There are two important words there: "investment" and "strategy".

Investment requires active research, and making decisions not based on speculative plays but a sound analysis of the value of the asset being acquired. Hearing about a company as ubiquitous as Apple and then jumping on board on the assumption that it'll keep going up (remember the housing market?) is not investing.

If all of Apple's enterprise were struck by a meteor tomorrow and wiped off the face of the planet, would the average Apple speculator be well insulated from that catastrophe in the rest of their portfolio. Would their "sit and presume infinite growth" tack work with the broader market?

If the answer to questions like these is "no" then whatever else you want to call it, it's not investing, and it's not a strategy.

Spend less time beating yourself up for "shoulda, woulda, coulda" on a company that could have just as easily gone the other way... and start beefing up your knowledge of investing, and insulate yourself against potential catastrophic loss. THAT, and not consistent huge wins, is what will growth your wealth tremendously in the long term.

Chasing unsustainable returns is a sure fire way to expose your principal to risk of loss... and that kind of loss compounds over time. I don't miss the AAPL boat because I have much more stable long term investments that are actually providing pretty stellar returns, very close to Apple's.... but without the volatility of the umpteen zillion speculators who are all sitting and hoping with their eyes closed and ears shut.

I'm not saying that Apple will do terribly, but Apple's book value is well below 600 dollars per share. So the difference is owing entirely to speculation on where they will go in the future. That works perfectly as long as Apple keeps producing double digit growth infinitely... but its the "infinitely" part that is a statistical impossibility. Growth rates have to shrink at that scale because a) Apple is gaining share of wallet much faster than the number of wallets or size of wallets is increasing, and b) Apple has to produce exponentially more marginal revenue each quarter just to maintain the same growth rate mathematically.

And then there's the Steve factor... any time a business's image and success are so inextricably tied to an iconic figure you cannot top that. No one will ever take the reins of Apple with a greater vested interest than Steve had. No visionary of Steve's caliber will prefer to work for Apple over starting his own company.

A shrewd investor is like a good hockey player... skate to where the puck is going next, not to where it is now.

Partially true. I agree AAPL is grossly overvalued, and that bubble will likely pop sometime in the next couple years. However, I disagree on your assessment of what an "investment strategy" should be. The most important thing an investor can do is diversify, not just across multiple companies, but across multiple markets as well, the idea being that markets increase in value over time. So if you invest in a dozen markets and hold onto that stock for 50 years, you're safer and likely to net a reasonable sum when you cash in. Dumping all your money into one company, as one poster claims he did, is too risky, no matter how well performing that company is/you expect it to be.
 
early 2008 was a good time to buy, people panicked about the economy, iphone was doing good and aapl dropped from 200 down to 80. 80 to 600 in 4 years is proud. that's 7.5x or almost 200% per year during the time everyone was saying the economy sucked.
 
I think Apple's a fine company and there are a lot worse stocks out there to buy, but you have to wonder if it's becoming a self contained bubble.

You pick up any financial magazine or newspaper or read an article online and everyone is recommending Apple and saying it's going to $1,000 and will be the first trillion dollar company. One thing I've noticed with the stock market is that (usually) when everyone agrees on something, it doesn't happen.

Just ask yourself how different Apple is today than last month? Is it really worth $100 more a share than it was at the beginning of February? How much has the business changed? We all knew the iPhone was going well. We all knew the iPad was getting updated.

Or since January? Is Apple 50% better today than it was in January? Because the stock's jumped from $400 to $600 since then. Is it justified?

Again, I'm not saying Apple's not going to succeed. I'm just saying I wouldn't feel very comfortable buying at this level.
 
It's as I told a close friend yesterday, buying AAPL is not an investment strategy. There are two important words there: "investment" and "strategy".

Investment requires active research, and making decisions not based on speculative plays but a sound analysis of the value of the asset being acquired. Hearing about a company as ubiquitous as Apple and then jumping on board on the assumption that it'll keep going up (remember the housing market?) is not investing.

If all of Apple's enterprise were struck by a meteor tomorrow and wiped off the face of the planet, would the average Apple speculator be well insulated from that catastrophe in the rest of their portfolio. Would their "sit and presume infinite growth" tack work with the broader market?

If the answer to questions like these is "no" then whatever else you want to call it, it's not investing, and it's not a strategy.

Spend less time beating yourself up for "shoulda, woulda, coulda" on a company that could have just as easily gone the other way... and start beefing up your knowledge of investing, and insulate yourself against potential catastrophic loss. THAT, and not consistent huge wins, is what will growth your wealth tremendously in the long term.

Chasing unsustainable returns is a sure fire way to expose your principal to risk of loss... and that kind of loss compounds over time. I don't miss the AAPL boat because I have much more stable long term investments that are actually providing pretty stellar returns, very close to Apple's.... but without the volatility of the umpteen zillion speculators who are all sitting and hoping with their eyes closed and ears shut.

I'm not saying that Apple will do terribly, but Apple's book value is well below 600 dollars per share. So the difference is owing entirely to speculation on where they will go in the future. That works perfectly as long as Apple keeps producing double digit growth infinitely... but its the "infinitely" part that is a statistical impossibility. Growth rates have to shrink at that scale because a) Apple is gaining share of wallet much faster than the number of wallets or size of wallets is increasing, and b) Apple has to produce exponentially more marginal revenue each quarter just to maintain the same growth rate mathematically.

And then there's the Steve factor... any time a business's image and success are so inextricably tied to an iconic figure you cannot top that. No one will ever take the reins of Apple with a greater vested interest than Steve had. No visionary of Steve's caliber will prefer to work for Apple over starting his own company.

A shrewd investor is like a good hockey player... skate to where the puck is going next, not to where it is now.

Well, I agree with some of what you have said, but not all:

- Steve has been dead for months and stock keeps climbing, showing that Apple's image still remains intact; and sadly to say this, to some people the passing of SJ has been a better for Apple's image.
- No doubt that current climbing has a direct relationship with the release of the new iPad.
- New iPad pre-orders have been better than expected and reviews have been very positive, increasing the excitement. Definitely a contributing factor in the quick rise of the stock price.
- The price of stock is high enough already that it's out of reach for most people.
- The most ideal time to buy (second chance) was back in 2007 when Apple switched to Intel and released Leopard, but of course, most people were afraid of the outcome of that; well, nobody can predict the future, and something like this has never happened before AFAIK.
- Stock is driven by hype and fear. At this time, hype rules: everyone wants Apple stock. Unless Apple maintains and increases that interest, their stock will go down, but as Tim Cook said at the end of his Keynote speech: "We are just getting started!". This also creates excitement, expectation and hype.
- Apple stock has been going up steadily as a direct effect of successful product launches. it's not like it suddenly inflated based on an empty promise. The housing market was clearly a bubble waiting to burst, because it came to the point when it didn't make any sense; I got out barely on time.
- It's been almost five years since it started to go up, and as far as I know, none of those who got it have regret it.

Based on the above, my recommendation is: "If you can afford it, get it!"
1,000 shares is about $60,000.
Not everyone here has that much money to risk, as no matter what, it's still a risk to some degree.
 
if anyone wants to buy in... just wait for it to drop a bunch, then buy. if it drops more, don't be pissed, just buy more :D
 
What goes up must come down.

If you look at AAPL's PEG, it should be valued at around $3,499.99 on the high side and around 1,499.99 on the low. If you take any reasonable tech industry multiplier on today's earnings without looking at forward estimates, they remain undervalued.

If you take into account the recovering economy and probable growth in the tech sector as a whole, they are even more undervalued.

Anyone got a time machine? Would love to go back a few years...

Tried that. Went back in time, invested in BeeOS, stepped on a butterfly, came back to the future, found bush in office.
 
I can only imagine what all the apple emo haters are going to be doing tomorrow. I swear some of my friends almost pop when Apple proves themselves the best certain times. I am surprised a couple of them have not knifed me yet just for owning a mac.

Maybe you should find new friends, in this forum perhaps. :D

----------

if anyone wants to buy in... just wait for it to drop a bunch, then buy. if it drops more, don't be pissed, just buy more :D

You could just work at Apple and get stock for free.
 
No but it's still a fact... sorry to burst your bubble nothing lasts forever. It may go up for the next 100 years, but it will go down sometime. I suppose after the sun explodes apple stock will keep going up, right?

You do understand that I only care about the next 20 years until retirement? Anything beyond this is irrelevant to me, and the phrase 'what goes up must come down' doesn't translate.

Of course, by the time the sun explodes, Apple will have bought and colonized another planet, because aliens will work for less money than the Chinese, thereby increasing it's share value even more. :D

Apple will not definately go down in the next 20 years. Sure sometime soon there will be a 100 point drop in it's share value, but it will go back up again shortly thereafter. I'm guessing Apple will become too large soon and will split into smaller companies, the total of each will be worth more than $600/share in 20 years.
 
Wirelessly posted (Mozilla/5.0 (iPhone; CPU iPhone OS 5_1 like Mac OS X) AppleWebKit/534.46 (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/5.1 Mobile/9B179 Safari/7534.48.3)

Is there a point to paying so much for stock which does not pay dividends? You are not going to see returns on your investment, so won't it be akin to locking your money in a safe and throwing away the key?
 
I think Apple's a fine company and there are a lot worse stocks out there to buy, but you have to wonder if it's becoming a self contained bubble.

You pick up any financial magazine or newspaper or read an article online and everyone is recommending Apple and saying it's going to $1,000 and will be the first trillion dollar company. One thing I've noticed with the stock market is that (usually) when everyone agrees on something, it doesn't happen.

Just ask yourself how different Apple is today than last month? Is it really worth $100 more a share than it was at the beginning of February? How much has the business changed? We all knew the iPhone was going well. We all knew the iPad was getting updated.

Or since January? Is Apple 50% better today than it was in January? Because the stock's jumped from $400 to $600 since then. Is it justified?

Again, I'm not saying Apple's not going to succeed. I'm just saying I wouldn't feel very comfortable buying at this level.

Apple has a PE of 16.79. That is low for a non tech company. For a tech company, that is unimaginably low. Apple's one year PEG is 0.65. Anything below 1 is good. 0.9 is very good. 0.8 is insanely good. 0.65 put Apple in the category of, one of the most undervalued companies in the history of stock markets.
 
That is simply astounding. This year is looking to be a blowout one for Apple with redesigned MacBook Pros, the new iPad, and the redesigned iPhone. I can't imagine what the stock will be in a year's time.
 
Have you ever heard of Mark Cuban? Do you know how he made all his money?

Of course I know Mark. He lives here in Dallas. He started a business venture... that he sold for $5.9 billion. Do you see the distinction here?

You can be the sucker who buys an overpriced asset, or you can be the one that develops it from when it was underpriced and then sells it to any fool on the market willing to pay more than they should...

Do you know what Mark did after that? He quickly diversified his holdings. That's why he's STILL a billionaire.
 
I'm still kicking myself for not buying stock when it was less than $200 ... :mad:

It's never too late. I thought the same thing after it went from $30 to $60 and bought a lot then.

You"ll likely see a lot of volitility for several days or week as traders buy and sell multiple times trying to make a few extra bucks.
 
I think it's important to not "kick yourself" for not purchasing at a certain price. If you sit there and regret purchasing, you'll find yourself loosing more capital when you jump the gun and purchase another companies stock because you believe it's the next Apple and then it tanks.

As for Apples future, you still have to think about how fast Apple is growing overseas. I mean they literally started riots in China and i'm sure a majority of the population still needs to be tapped.

If you want a piece of Apple success but can't afford the near $600 price, look at the wholesalers/providers that are in reasonable price range. AT&T is currently $31.44 with a 5.6% dividend. Which pretty much pays more then any savings/money market account you might have. Verizon is trading at $39.40 with a current dividend of 5.07%.
 
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