Apple Silicon Roadmap Based on 18-Month Upgrade Cycle, Claims Report

[MacRumors]

Apple plans to update its Apple silicon chips every 18 months, compared to the annual upgrade cycle of the iPhone and Apple Watch, according to a new report from the Taiwanese Commercial Times.

The report, which largely echoes previously reported information, said that industry sources have pointed towards an 18-month upgrade cycle for Apple silicon chips. With that, the report claims that the next generation of Apple silicon, M2, will launch in the second half of 2022 and is codenamed Staten, with "M2 Pro" and "M2 Max" chips expected to launch in the first half of 2023. A machine translation of the report reads:

According to sources in the supply chain industry, Apple Silicon will be updated every 18 months in the future. In the second half of 2022, Apple will first launch the M2 processor code-named Staten, and in the first half of 2023, it will launch the new M2X processor architecture code-named Rhodes, and release two processors such as M2 Pro and M2 Max according to the different graphics cores. Apple's M2 series processors all use the 4-nanometer process, and will be updated to the M3 series processors after an 18-month cycle. It is expected that they will be mass-produced using TSMC's 3-nanometer process.

Before Apple transitioned to Apple silicon, the company had to rely on Intel to innovate and produce new chips. Intel's timeline and ability to create new processors were factors in the timeline for new Mac computers. Now, however, with Apple owning the entire vertical stack of the Mac, it's able to update and upgrade its computers and chips as often as it deems necessary. Even with that added freedom, customers typically don't upgrade their Macs as often as their iPhone or Apple Watch, so a less often upgrade cycle is logical.

Apple announced M1, the first Apple silicon chip, in November of 2020, and expanded the M1 family with the M1 Pro and M1 Max less than a year later in October of this year. A similar scenario is expected for 2022, with M2 launching first, and M2 Pro and M2 Max launching in the first half of 2023, according to today's report.

With the end of the year creeping upon us, we won't have to wait long for Apple's next generation of Macs. Rumors have suggested that a new 27-inch iMac with mini-LED, a new design, and ProMotion support will launch in the spring of 2022, with a new redesigned MacBook Air expected in the second half of the year.

Update: This article was updated to correct an error about the source, which is Taiwanese, not Chinese as was previously stated. We apologize for the mistake.

Article Link: Apple Silicon Roadmap Based on 18-Month Upgrade Cycle, Claims Report

 

[DMG35]

That makes sense. A 12 month cycle would be nice but also nearly impossible to show any type of dramatic improvement in that timeframe. The iPhone and iPads are hard enough now to differentiate between years because the chips are so good.

 

[mdekker]

So new MacBook Air in spring and M2 in de second half of the year. How does that match up with the rumors that the new MacBook Air have M2 processors?

 

[Shirasaki]

18 month for a new generation of chip huh. Not quite yearly as crazy as A-series chip but still seems to be quite aggressive. Upgrading Mac every 18 month seems a bit much, especially for those going for $6000 maxed out options.

With that being said though, how much of that performance gain could be for each generation?

 

[Shirasaki]

So new MacBook Air in spring and M2 in de second half of the year. How does that match up with the rumors that the new MacBook Air have M2 processors?

They don’t have to imo. I always read those stuff in isolation rather than “coincide with something else”.

 

[lysingur]

I guess that means Mac Pro in 2023.

 

[rickster2kuk]

Do you think that means we will see an new M2 MBP around Oct/Nov again next year based on this?

 

[MayaUser]

So new MacBook Air in spring and M2 in de second half of the year. How does that match up with the rumors that the new MacBook Air have M2 processors?

New macbook air in second half of next year with M2

 

[Total Respray]

Maybe Apple (and its customers) would benefit from 18 month MacOS and iOS upgrade cycles too.

 

[omenatarhuri]

18 month for a new generation of chip huh. Not quite yearly as crazy as A-series chip but still seems to be quite aggressive. Upgrading Mac every 18 month seems a bit much, especially for those going for $6000 maxed out options.

With that being said though, how much of that performance gain could be for each generation?

You don't always have to have the newest one.

 

[MayaUser]

That can be good news since the M2 can be armv9...
If the M2 would had arrived in April of next year, it would be impossible to be armv9

 

[genovelle]

You don't always have to have the newest one.

This will allow the Mac to continue to expand its customer base. There will more visibility because it will stay in the news and not have its releases and updates connected because PC are getting it too.

 

[JPack]

Given the design cost of a 5nm chip is $500M (minimum), this news should be no surprise. At 4nm, it's at least a billion dollars. People who thought M-series processors would follow the same annual cadence as iPhones are simply out to lunch.

 

[EmotionalSnow]

You don't always have to have the newest one.

Exactly. Everybody updates at a different cycle. Updating Macs every 18 months means that everybody can get a state of the art machine every time instead of having to wait a long time for the next update to release.

 

[5425642]

I was hoping for every 24 months as I want stable machines and stable macOS. I hate bugs and if they have 24 months to fix everything (almost) behind the scenes I'm happy.

 

[constructor]

18 months look a bit dubious to me because that would mean that in a three-year cycle they would alternate between launching new M chips coinciding with the new iPhones and then in the off-season the next time.

That would cause a production bottleneck every 3 years. Why would they do something like that?

This looks like garbled information. It would seem more plausible to me if they ran a 2-year upgrade cycle, offset from the iPhone SoC upgrade cycle by 6 Months or something like that, but still keeping the product lines synchronized that way.

 

[darngooddesign]

So new MacBook Air in spring and M2 in de second half of the year. How does that match up with the rumors that the new MacBook Air have M2 processors?

The rumor is talking about the SoCs which means that the M2 will be released 18 months after the M1 and the M2-P/M2-X 18 months after the M1-P/M1-X.

 

[Leon Ze Professional]

TBH Apples current lead would mean it will still be well ahead of the competition in 18 months time. Even if this report proves to be correct.

 

[Wanted797]

You don't always have to have the newest one.

Oh what? Macrumors members had me thinking I had to bin my iPhone 12 in September and the moment a mac becomes vintage it immediately stops working.

Are you telling me this isn’t true?!?!

 

[ZebraDude]

ah......someone has read Moore's Law & Apple Park...

What is Moore's Law? – How Does Moore’s Law Work? | Synopsys

Moore's law is a term used to refer to the observation made by Gordon Moore in 1965 that the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit (IC) doubles about every two years.

www.synopsys.com

 

[JPack]

18 months look a bit dubious to me because that would mean that in a three-year cycle they would alternate between launching new M chips coinciding with the new iPhones and then in the off-season the next time.

That would cause a production bottleneck every 3 years. Why would they do something like that?

This looks like garbled information. It would seem more plausible to me if they ran a 2-year upgrade cycle, offset from the iPhone SoC upgrade cycle by 6 Months or something like that, but still keeping the product lines synchronized that way.

We've already seen it happen. A14 in September and M1 in November. Apple sells an order of magnitude fewer units of Mac compared to iPhone, so it would hardly be a bottleneck.

 

[nexusrule]

18 month for a new generation of chip huh. Not quite yearly as crazy as A-series chip but still seems to be quite aggressive. Upgrading Mac every 18 month seems a bit much, especially for those going for $6000 maxed out options.

With that being said though, how much of that performance gain could be for each generation?

Nobody upgrades just because something new is out (unless they are dumb oc); new chips are primarily for people that need a new machine, not for people that bought the previous generation. Performance gain follow the same logic, most people that bought the previous gen won’t upgrade so won’t care, comparison for most people will be with machines that have 2,3 or more years.

 

[DFZD]

That's very odd and seems like an after thought. I am starting to get Intel like vibes now, and I hope to be wrong on this.

I would like Apple to follow the Tick Tock update cycle where they alternate between improving the manufacturing process and increasing the clock speed each year. Just like they follow on iOS devices. This 18 months business means we will again be left in the dark about new Mac product launches and upgrades. Now there's also the already dicey iPad Pro lineup in the mix so I hope Apple assigns more resources to improve this bit. Or even 18 months is not bad if they stick to it with May/Nov releases.

 

[Freeangel1]

I'm waiting for the M2 Pro Max.
Monterey is so buggy and memory leaks and missing features.
Is this gonna be the new Normal????

And in Mac mini form.
No cheesy breakable keyboard on the MacBook Pro for me or Battery or screen issues.

Buying A Mac mini you escape all these hassles

and if they force you to only install APPS from the APPLE APP store like the iPads and iPhones thats when I jump ship and move back to Windows 10 or 11.

 

[BootsWalking]

Much faster cycle than Intel, which updated their chip performance every never number of years.