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RyanFlynn

macrumors 6502
Original poster
Nov 24, 2006
390
341
Los Angeles
Hey friends,

What do you think, is the fear of a virus pushing apple stock down below what it should be after a record breaking earnings report?

Ryan
 

Fried egg on toast

macrumors member
Oct 15, 2019
56
34
I think we are in a bit of a tech bubble at the moment. Not saying prices are going to crash tomorrow or even next week/month, but I would expect at some point within the next year or so.

smart money is investing in commodities like precious and base metals. My portfolio is up 75% in just over 3 months, and a lot of my shares are still heavily undervalued.

DYOR do your own research :)
 
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ejb190

macrumors 65816
A little bit is fine, but never, ever put all your eggs in one basket (stock/sector/class). That's why I'm mostly in mutual funds. (Some have Apple.)

For something like this, be ready to loose money in the short term and be ready to hold on to it for the long term to ride it out.

(I also don't like commodities - poor performance over the long term. But you ask 10 investors, you'll get 15 opinions.)
 
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Fried egg on toast

macrumors member
Oct 15, 2019
56
34
Would WB and CM be willing to buy so much of AAPL at today’s prices? Probably not. They are up significantly from their initial positions. Being willing to ‘hold’ a stock you already own and is up a lot, is a lot different from being willing to ‘buy’ they same stock, at the current price.

Talking about those two, they are holding huge amounts of cash (something like $100 billion) ready to pounce after the next major stockmarket crash.

For now commodities have huge potential especially for precious metals like palladium which has been in a supply deficit for years.

Gold and silver also perform very well during times of economic uncertainty (market crashes, wars, etc). QE quantitive easing devalues fiat/paper, and investors buy gold and silver instead to protect the value of their wealth.

Base metals are used for batteries for all the electronics and EV’s that will be produced instead of traditional oil powered vehicles.

The easiest way to invest in commodities is through mining companies or ETF’s.

Different markets/sectors have their own phase during the global economic cycle. Tech companies are reaching their peak of their cycle.

My previous message was posted at 4am UK time and I was indeed up 75% in 3 months. Right now, at 8pm UK time (of the same day), I am now 100% up (doubled my money).
 
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levander

macrumors regular
Jul 21, 2011
196
139
Apple’s not as obvious a buy as it has been in the past, because Wall St has stopped valuing Apple just like any other random hardware company, and the P/E ratio has risen quite a bit over the last year.

But as of now, nobody else has a unified UI across devices like Apple does. And there’s still room for the P/E ratio to grow as Apple proves more to the market about its ability to consistently deliver results. So yeah, I think Apple is still a buy. Just not as good a buy as it has been the last 10 years.

Big things Wall St professionals think are going to happen is 5G is going to cause a lot of people to upgrade their phones. And Apple’s move into services should make their revenue stream more consistent, even across recessions. As Wall St gets more and more of a whiff of those things actually happening, you will see significant move upwards in the Apple stock price.

Me, I just think that given their massive user base, Apple will be able to figure something out to keep improving profits. I basically feel like they’ve been so busy selling iPhones the last ten years, they haven’t flexed nearly as much as they could have. But now that iPhone sales have levelled off, we‘re starting to see them try other things.
 
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levander

macrumors regular
Jul 21, 2011
196
139
Would WB and CM be willing to buy so much of AAPL at today’s prices? Probably not. They are up significantly from their initial positions. Being willing to ‘hold’ a stock you already own and is up a lot, is a lot different from being willing to ‘buy’ they same stock, at the current price.

Talking about those two, they are holding huge amounts of cash (something like $100 billion) ready to pounce after the next major stockmarket crash.

I wouldn’t be so sure you can divine people’s mind. If you’re interested in what certain people think, you’d probably be better off listening to what they actually have to say.

Here’s a recent article about what Buffet had to say about AAPL:


Lot of people in this thread stating their opinion as if it were fact. I look at is the stock market has already roughly priced in an average of what people think. What you think is worth investing in is where you think the average is wrong.
 
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levander

macrumors regular
Jul 21, 2011
196
139
Lol


According to this, BH holds more CASH than it does in Apple stock. Take the blinkers off and what does that tell you?

I hope you’re not making your own investment decisions.

There’s more reasons than just “I don’t have any spare cash” not to buy more of a stock. For instance, AAPL Is already BRK’s 3rd largest holding. And diversification is an objective for Berkshire.
 
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Fried egg on toast

macrumors member
Oct 15, 2019
56
34
I'm not interested having a petty argument with you in this thread about something we can only declare as being true using the medium of hindsight later on.

I have never once said I think Apple is a bad company. After the tech bubble bursts I will invest in Apple (and Tesla too tbh). For me, now is not the right time in the cycle to invest in tech. This doesn't mean I think everything is 'doomed', just that I see greater potential elsewhere for the immediate future.

That Wikipedia link I posted above says "As of August 3, 2019, Berkshire Hathaway has $122 billion in cash and cash equivalents." I think we will see that amount significantly reduce over the next year, ie they'll be "buying the dip".
 
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faust

macrumors 6502
Sep 11, 2007
381
172
Los Angeles, CA
I'm not a registered broker, and I am not well versed in the stock market at all, but I'd say Apple is not a good buy right now based on common sense observations. I'd recommend buying some AMD stock(Ryzen 4000 APUs are coming out soon and will be a success), plus the fact they're supplying the CPU/GPUs for every next-gen video game console, plus I expect AMD to release a mildly competitive video card this year that really takes the foundation their 5700XT built and knocks it out of the ball park in the budget minded PC enthusiast market, and I'd also recommend Nvidia as they're legitimately about to announce their 3000 series successor to the 2000 series and with more adoption of ray tracing among developers? I expect Nvidia to really increase it's stock value from that.

then again, COVID-19 is in it's infancy, and we don't quite know just how worse it's going to become before it's over. I hear toilet paper is selling well? LOL.
 
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levander

macrumors regular
Jul 21, 2011
196
139
Can’t help but gloat a little... I’ve been watching how my AAPL stock’s been doing...

Was I the only one in this thread who called AAPL a buy?

I’m looking at the dates on this thread, and it looks like I jumped in a little late without realizing it. The OP was on Feb 4 when the stock price was ~$320. I chimed in on Feb 4 when the price was ~$280. Today the price is at a massive $455! An excellent buy no matter when you bought in February!

CC: @Fried egg on toast
 
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levander

macrumors regular
Jul 21, 2011
196
139
That said, I was starting to look at maybe getting out of AAPL. Then Cook announced a 4:1 stock split! I know accounting-wise, a stock split means nothing other than some simple arithmetic with no monetary value. But I do consider it Tim Cook telling the market he has very high confidence in his company’s near term prospects. It’s not gonna look good if Cook splits the stock, then it goes down. That would make Cook look bad. And it would damage relationships Cook has with people on Wall St. Well, unless the decline was because something like a war breaking out or something Apple has zero control over.

If it weren’t for that stock split, I might consider AAPL a sell. Or at best a speculative investment that you would put less money in. Not because It’s a bad company. But just because the P/E is so high.

But with the split announcement, I think I’d consider it a hold because I imagine it will keep going up. But I don’t know that I’d have the balls to buy it with the current P/E. But I also don’t think I’d have the balls to sell it with the stock having just split.

When I look for a company to invest in, I‘m looking for something like Toyota at a fair to discounted price. Where I have decent certainty that in five years I’ll at least have the money I invested plus a dividend. Apple right now feels more like spinning a wheel where the odds are in your favor. But it’s far from a sure thing.
 
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Fried egg on toast

macrumors member
Oct 15, 2019
56
34
Can’t help but gloat a little... I’ve been watching how my AAPL stock’s been doing...

Was I the only one in this thread who called AAPL a buy?

I’m looking at the dates on this thread, and it looks like I jumped in a little late without realizing it. The OP was on Feb 4 when the stock price was ~$320. I chimed in on Feb 4 when the price was ~$280. Today the price is at a massive $455! An excellent buy no matter when you bought in February!

CC: @Fried egg on toast
I bought shares in a company in early Feb at 30p, now valued over £3.00. ;)
 
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Fried egg on toast

macrumors member
Oct 15, 2019
56
34
Well, it was good of you to report your one supposed win, after the fact...

Next time you go fishing, please let us know before hand. I might want to go with you.
I’ve had more than one win recently. Gold, silver, palladium mining stocks (and physical bullion too). COVID stocks and Biotechs are big atm too.

edit: I don’t think the mods would allow me to name any, but PM me of you wish. If you do, I advise everyone to do their own research too 👍🏻
 
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levander

macrumors regular
Jul 21, 2011
196
139
I’ve had more than one win recently. Gold, silver, palladium mining stocks (and physical bullion too). COVID stocks and Biotechs are big atm too.

edit: I don’t think the mods would allow me to name any, but PM me of you wish. If you do, I advise everyone to do their own research too 👍🏻

i guess I was too vague with the joke. I was just poking a little fun cause you couldn’t just eat crow over having made a bad call on AAPL. The fishing reference was the old cliche joke about how big the fish was they caught that they never showed you, etc.., etc..

In investing we all make bad calls occasionally though. It’s not a big deal.

And there have been plenty of winners in the last few months. I’m sure you do have some wins in your portfolio.
 
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Fried egg on toast

macrumors member
Oct 15, 2019
56
34
i guess I was too vague with the joke. I was just poking a little fun cause you couldn’t just eat crow over having made a bad call on AAPL. The fishing reference was the old cliche joke about how big the fish was they caught that they never showed you, etc.., etc..

In investing we all make bad calls occasionally though. It’s not a big deal.

And there have been plenty of winners in the last few months. I’m sure you do have some wins in your portfolio.
Everything I said in my first post in this thread (post #4) has happened, except the tech bubble hasn’t burst yet, though the Fed is buying up stocks so prices are more inflated than they should be.

Gold and silver are up a lot. Biotechs have boomed. My portfolio is up 300% since that post.

ps. A new company I invested in 2 weeks ago has already quadrupled. Plenty of bargains around if you look and don’t follow the crowd
 
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Madhatter32

macrumors 6502
Apr 17, 2020
299
913
In the past 12 years, stock market growth has correlated with the growth of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. It is as simple of that. The fundamental advice others may be giving you regarding examination of the financials, weighing future growth and discounting its case flows is very good but just not relevant in this particular market. Unitl the Federal Reserve begins to normalize its balance sheet or begins to raise interest rates (probabaly due to inflation), Apple and most other stocks are attractive.
 
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mdwsta4

macrumors 65816
Jul 23, 2007
1,274
156
Thankful I bought Apple and Tesla stock when they were trading around $45 and $90. Still holding a few dozen shares as I see future growth opportunities with both companies after the split, and obviously very happy with what they’ve both done for my portfolio
 
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Fried egg on toast

macrumors member
Oct 15, 2019
56
34
Just out of curiosity, how would one go about buying shares in the UK?
Use a stockbroker! If you are UK based there are a few to choose from. I use Hargreaves Lansdown (HL). You can use the desktop website, or phone up if you prefer, or use the app on your iPhone.

I prefer for convenience and speed, to buy and sell using the iPhone app, although I use my MacBook to view live pricing (via SharePad)
 
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