Apple Stock Down 10% in After Hours Trading Amidst Concerns of Flat Growth

[maxosx]

I agree fully with what you are saying and so does Bob Wiedemer. Apple's stock crashing is not going to be due to anything Apple did, but due to the fundamentals of how this country is being run and how fast the printing presses are going.

Correct, Apple fans often take things too personally.

There's an anti-business edge, along with the redistribution of wealth, entitlement mentality that's hurting things...

 

[ghost187]

Extremely strong fundamentals. All this is is a bunch of hedge fund guys trying to rattle the mutual fund guys into selling into their Apple puts so they can buy the stock back and make a couple million in a few days. All noise by mostly media morons who can't tell a call from a put, and want a story that sells clicks and eyeballs (ahhh, ahhh, Apple is falling, ahhh). Don't you think the smart guys have these idiots wrapped around their fingers? Buy the damn stock, and hold it for a few years. Returns (with dividends, no less, coming) should be 10% or better yearly. Big yawn.

Thank you for being one of the few sensible people here.

 

[tknelson]

Did you read the article?




In point of fact, Apple's profits are NOT growing. That is the important take-away.

Don't forget to make the ~8% correction because the quarter was a week longer last year. It's also not clear how much profits were hurt by low yields and high costs while ramping a complete lineup of new products (almost everything Apple makes) during the quarter. We won't know until next earnings report.

 

[flux73]

Did you read the article?
In point of fact, Apple's profits are NOT growing. That is the important take-away.

Not true. This year's quarter is shorter by 1 week compared to last year's quarter (7% difference). This year's quarter had a lot of new products compared to last years which only had an iPhone 4S which didn't require anything but swapping out a few internal parts. The important number is the revenue number which showed 18% growth. Profits will increase as they improve yields and get better pricing on their supplies for the new products.

 

[jlasoon]

Point here is that everyone doesn't need to have enough money to purchase high-priced items. They've created credit cards, loans, leases and in Apple's case, subsidized prices of phones.

And this is good?

 

[FrozenDarkness]

After hours trading after earnings is always full of crap. Tomorrow could bounce (perhaps as high as 500?), or drop further (perhaps as low as 425?). The fact is, AAPL was pretty much bang-on analysts estimates, so speculation aside, the released earnings should be baked into a price somewhere near $500. The question is: how long is the short speculation going to continue before it runs out of steam? With current P/E and ZERO growth, the stock is undervalued now based upon fundamentals.

the stock will keep dropping until there is support from major players. there will always be dead cat bounces, where smaller investors have price points to get in on and volume is low. apple won't be on the way up until value investors jump on board or a major player breaks the trend, at that point, it's everybody in before someone sells

 

[tknelson]

yea i stuck around after hours to check out the earnings man did NFLX fly after hours 103 to 139 insane!

Yes, talk about irrational.

 

[krzyglue]

I am writing all of this because I am fed up with the stock manipulation of Apple. If the price of the stock goes any lower, Apple should just go private and buy all of its shares.

"Apple" should buy all of its shares? I mean I know about Citizens United but Apple isn't a person who can buy itself out..... Apple's cash isn't fricken Tim Cook's personal stash; who on earth can afford to buy them out????

 

[NAG]

Correct, Apple fans often take things too personally.

There's an anti-business edge, along with the redistribution of wealth, entitlement mentality that's hurting things...

Uh, what does the stock price have to do with Artie Macstrawman?

 

[jlasoon]

Correct, Apple fans often take things too personally.

There's an anti-business edge, along with the redistribution of wealth, entitlement mentality that's hurting things...

Wait, the crescendo is just around the corner. Most here will have no clue what hit them.

 

[KPOM]

It's 9 bc in the future it'll be 14 when the earnings stink

I doubt it. Apple was dealing with the combined effects of a sluggish economy and a lot of product upgrades (with the resultant supply constraints) and still managed a record quarter. Google, which "surprised" upwards, managed about the same "beat" in terms of EPS and "miss" in terms of revenue. Apple really started tanking when Peter Oppenheimer said the Q2 forecast wasn't sandbagged, but at the same time $41-43 billion in forecast revenue is nothing to sneeze at.

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I think the shift in demand from the iPad to the iPad Mini is bad news for Apple. Nothing against the product, I personally haven't used it, but a shift in demand from a high margin product to a much lower margin product is worrisome.

However, as Tim Cook said, it's better for them to cannibalize their own produt than let someone else do the same. The iPad mini filled a necessary market. People want a thinner, lighter, and cheaper tablet. It's better that they buy a $329 iPad mini than a Nexus 7.

 

[ConCat]

Wait, the crescendo is just around the corner. Most here will have no clue what hit them.

Yep. Inflation hasn't really hit yet. The mass panic will be hilarious frankly considering how foreseeable it all is.

 

[flux73]

I think the shift in demand from the iPad to the iPad Mini is bad news for Apple. Nothing against the product, I personally haven't used it, but a shift in demand from a high margin product to a much lower margin product is worrisome.

You're assuming that the demand for both is equal. People might be more likely to buy an iPad Mini than an iPad as a gift. People might be more likely to try an iPad Mini because of lower cost. People might be more likely to get an iPad Mini because the weight and size is significantly less. A family might be more likely to get multiple iPad Minis rather than just one iPad. Some people (like me) will get both.

I don't know if any of the above is definitely true. The point is that you're making a comparison using an assumption that the demand for the two products are equal. Furthermore, you're assuming that someone who buys an iPad Mini is buying instead of an iPad, rather than instead of a Nexus or Kindle Fire. I don't think your assumptions are correct.

 

[jlasoon]

I doubt it. Apple was dealing with the combined effects of a sluggish economy

Did I miss something? Is this suppose to change?

 

[iGrip]

I almost sold at $700. All I had to do was click one final button but I changed my mind at the last second.

It is not too late to cut your losses.

 

[mdlooker]

And this is good?

No not necessarily. Case-in-point... The subsidized subprime housing market and subsequent crash. It's actually horribly. You're very accurate with our sense of priorities in our country. We, as a general whole, have to have, and we want to have it now. So the market reacts and finds ways to make this happen.

This will, over time, crash! Inflated stocks will decline and what should be, will in time, actually be.

Apple is on a very high tide right now but they have to figure out to keep that high. I don't think the iPhone and tablet will stay extremely high for an extremely long period.

Sorry kind of speaking on two thoughts here.

 

[FrozenDarkness]

You're assuming that the demand for both is equal. People might be more likely to buy an iPad Mini than an iPad as a gift. People might be more likely to try an iPad Mini because of lower cost. People might be more likely to get an iPad Mini because the weight and size is significantly less. A family might be more likely to get multiple iPad Minis rather than just one iPad. Some people (like me) will get both.

I don't know if any of the above is definitely true. The point is that you're making a comparison using an assumption that the demand for the two products are equal. I don't think your assumption is correct.

i think the assumption that the ipad mini will always have lower margin than the regular ipad is overblown. it won't remain that way forever.

 

[teknishn]

I really couldn't give a crap about the stock... Things are just getting stupid at this point. So one might ask, Stupid? How exactly do you mean? What I mean is, depending on which metric you go by, Apples 'record I might add' earnings this quarter were either the 1st or as low as 4th largest of any company in the history of the world. And...... apparently..... that is disappointing. Mmm k

 

[iGrip]

I might buy some again at 350. Might even if it dips 400

Your best bet is to dollar-cost average your purchase over time. You are not able to time the market with any certainty or accuracy.

 

[flux73]

i think the assumption that the ipad mini will always have lower margin than the regular ipad is overblown. it won't remain that way forever.

Good point. In fact, do we actually KNOW that the margins are lower? I didn't hear mention of exact numbers in the conference call. After all, the Mini uses a non-Retina screen and an A5 chip.

 

[jlasoon]

Yep. Inflation hasn't really hit yet. The mass panic will be hilarious frankly considering how foreseeable it all is.

Made enough money to retire when Subprime hit Still can't figure out how Bernanke missed it. $%*&ing idiot.

I'll be honest, what's coming scares me. Like I said, bought real estate outside this country.

 

[ifij775]

Not true. This year's quarter is shorter by 1 week compared to last year's quarter (7% difference). This year's quarter had a lot of new products compared to last years which only had an iPhone 4S which didn't require anything but swapping out a few internal parts. The important number is the revenue number which showed 18% growth. Profits will increase as they improve yields and get better pricing on their supplies for the new products.

Unfortunately, guidance on margins weren't great. The lack of any mea culpa like statements and insistence on how "incredible" these numbers were seemed silly

 

[iGrip]

Sloppy leaks and churning out new models out with the timeframe is why sales are flat.

Sales are not flat. They are up 18% YOY. It is profits that are flat.

 

[1Alec1]

Did you read the article?




In point of fact, Apple's profits are NOT growing. That is the important take-away.

You read it wrong. It said that the growth in profits is flat, not the profits themselves. The derivative of the profits is 1 (constant growth).

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Sales are not flat. They are up 18% YOY. It is profits that are flat.

Profits are not flat. And why would sales be up but profits flat? That would suggest extra costs.

Here are the rough graphs that are theoretical and not to-scale (except for the last one):

Apple's total money earned vs time = integral of profits vs time:

Apple's profits vs time:

Apple's CHANGE in PROFITS vs time = derivative of profits vs time:

Notice how the last one is flat at 0. THAT'S what this article is talking about, and that's what the investors are all worried about. It was rising before. All this is based on integration of the profit change vs time and not data, so it's just theory.

But I just realized that the article may be incorrect or unclear. It stated a $40M increase in profits over a year... not sure if it's rounding down to 0 or what. But it said that it was a flat increase in growth (aka profit?). The profits used to go up more than constantly over time.

 

[imageWIS]

Apple is becoming Microsoft - or at least that's the fear. They sell a ton of their cash cow products and make good money - but that's just resting on their laurels. Where the hell is any innovation and disruption? People respect Apple for exactly that. Making profits on cash cows - that spot is for Microsoft.

The thing is they will sell some more iPads and iPhones but then when that's saturated they will badly need disruptive new product or at least leaps and bounds improvements to existing ones. And there are no winds of that for past couple years and counting.

I've been saying that for years. The last truly revolutionary product from Apple was the iPhone 4 and in another extend the iPad (which is a larger iPod touch and did to be fair they did create a whole new market segment).