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Simple. People think they are buying the next Microsoft, Amazon, or Google. But they forget, there is already a Microsoft, Google, or Amazon. And those companies still don't pay decent dividends. (Microsoft, at least, does pay one, but too small.) It's just a smaller version of the dot-com bubble.

Amdahl is just about the most rational poster here.

Remember, back in the late 90s there were companies with market caps of several billion dollars that were losing money hand over fist but commanded these values and outrageous multiples because of projected future growth.

Look where that got them.

Now, Apple is far from a fly-by-night dot com shell, but that doesn't mean that it deserves to have a PE well over 50, which is what the posters hoping it to reach $300 a share anytime soon are basically saying.
 
I remember when the shares went down to 80, it was all doom and gloom on here and people were warning that they were going to sink much further because of the economic climate and there was no hope for Apple, amazing what a difference 12 months can make, in a recession too, wow!

There were people saying that Apple would fail in the recession because no-one would buy their premium products in hard times. Apple has proved all that crap wrong. I'm impressed.
 
If apple only has less then 10% PC market-share, how come their MC is so huge? Yes, I realize that apple makes other products, but seriously, if they even had 25 % PC market share, would they be the largest company in America? 40 billion dollars is all that separates the market caps of AAPL and MSFT. MSFT has 9 times the market-share, but is only worth 40 billion more?
(yes, yes... i know thats a lot, and yes, Apple makes other stuff and Microsoft pretty much only makes an OS).
How can this be?

</talking about something i dont know very much about>

Marketshare is not equal to profitability.

MSFT owns 90% of the market but doesn't make as much money per machine as Apple does. (I think)

Also, Apple is viewed as having more growth potential than Microsoft, and growth potential = future earnings = future cash.

People are paying so much for Apple because of what it might do in the FUTURE.
 
I had originally bout it at $78 and then sold it at $180ish. Then it went back down and I didn't buy. I believe it has started a trend and is going to fall back down again soon. I will sure to buy in. You could make a living just off of apple if you play your cards and research your numbers right. :)
 
Woo-Hoo! Go Apple!

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And to show you I'm not a "fanboy" of either companies (fanboy: someone glaringly hypocritical)... Woo-Hoo! Go Microsoft!
 
To equate the stock price with the success of the company is falacious when the stock DOUBLES in 6 months. Clearly we're going through another bubble that's not based on fundamentals. With the dividend model of investing the entire stock market pre-crash should have been around DOW 5000. Now even less with companies ceasing dividends.

The house always wins with degenerate gamblers, the stock market is sadly now the same :(

Bingo. Apple is doing really nicely for being in a recession, but don't let the NBER fool you, we are still in a recession, and the Fed's easy money program is sustaining the illusion of wealth. I sold Apple a looong time ago and although I wish I had held on (obviously), I'm not tempted to buy in the slightest.
 
I remember when the shares went down to 80, it was all doom and gloom on here and people were warning that they were going to sink much further because of the economic climate and there was no hope for Apple, amazing what a difference 12 months can make, in a recession too, wow!

There were people saying that Apple would fail in the recession because no-one would buy their premium products in hard times. Apple has proved all that crap wrong. I'm impressed.

Amazing isn't it?

So if everyone was doom and gloom at $80 and they turned out to be so very wrong, what does that tell you about the fact that everyone is so positive now that it's at $200?

Here's a brain teaser for you - once everyone and their mother (including all the first timers here on this thread) have bought a stock, who is left to buy more to keep driving the price up?
 
Here's a brain teaser for you - once everyone and their mother (including all the first timers here on this thread) have bought a stock, who is left to buy more to keep driving the price up?

I think we're a loooonnnng way from that point.
 
Oh ok. But since the market is so big, it's usually likely that stocks will get bought pretty quickly right?

Yeah, except for during market panics, or a panic in a particular stock. Such as October 1987, October 1929, or September/October 2008. It isn't typically the 'bigness' of the market that makes a transaction happen quickly; it is a 'market maker.' When a stock price is trading in a certain range, a market maker takes little risk in buying and selling in a certain range, to allow quick transactions in a particular stock.

During panics, there may be no buyers. At all. That is what happened Oct 1987 in a number of stocks. If you remember, about two years ago, Jim Cramer had his 'meltdown' performance. He retold the tale of Oct 1987 when he bid $5 for shares of Citibank, and got 'hit,' meaning someone was actually dumping at that price. The implication is that $5 was a ridiculously low price, illustrating the panic, which he was comparing the opening days of the credit crunch to (Credit crunch began in 2007, not Sept 2008 as average people might believe). And that was just a one day panic. You don't want to be a seller in a bad market, a no market. (Technical term might be a 'fast' market)

cameronjpu said:
Here's a brain teaser for you - once everyone and their mother (including all the first timers here on this thread) have bought a stock, who is left to buy more to keep driving the price up?
That's easy. You just keep selling amongst yourselves, at a higher price each time, and then sell to idiots on days when there is a positive news report, getting out with your profits. OH, is this mike on? @!#!
 
You think that huh? Have you read this thread?

Yeah, I'm sure every potential AAPL investor in the world is sitting here in MacRumors talking about AAPL in this very thread. :rolleyes:

I know one person other than me that owns AAPL. My brother.

AMZN is sitting at a P/E close to 70 right now (stock up 25% today), and Apple (in my opinion) has far more upside than Amazon.
 
Yeah, I'm sure every potential AAPL investor in the world is sitting here in MacRumors talking about AAPL in this very thread. :rolleyes:

I know one person other than me that owns AAPL. My brother.

AMZN is sitting at a P/E close to 70 right now (stock up 25% today), and Apple (in my opinion) has far more upside than Amazon.

You didn't honestly think I was implying that Apple was owned by EVERYONE, did you? You were just being deliberately obtuse. I don't know, maybe you're new to the market. But you don't have to be very old to have already seen 2 other stock bubbles like the one in the past six months. If this is your first, well then you'll know better next time I suppose.

Apple is already among the 5 most highly valued companies in the US stock market. You think it has upside?

And comparing Apple's valuation to a single outlier does more to support my position than your own - the fact is, compared to the vast majority of the market, Apple is vastly overvalued, and if you look at historical numbers, the next step is likely to be down.
 
You didn't honestly think I was implying that Apple was owned by EVERYONE, did you? You were just being deliberately obtuse. I don't know, maybe you're new to the market. But you don't have to be very old to have already seen 2 other stock bubbles like the one in the past six months. If this is your first, well then you'll know better next time I suppose.

Apple is already among the 5 most highly valued companies in the US stock market. You think it has upside?

And comparing Apple's valuation to a single outlier does more to support my position than your own - the fact is, compared to the vast majority of the market, Apple is vastly overvalued, and if you look at historical numbers, the next step is likely to be down.
Apple was considered vastly overvalued at $91 in 2005, before the 2:1 split. Since then, it has more than quadrupled in value, with enormous growth potential. If the next step is down, then the succeeding steps, based on AAPL's history, ought to exceed the previous highpoint further. To answer your question, yes, many people feel it has a significant upside.
 
Apple was considered vastly overvalued at $91 in 2005, before the 2:1 split. Since then, it has more than quadrupled in value, with enormous growth potential. If the next step is down, then the succeeding steps, based on AAPL's history, ought to exceed the previous highpoint further. To answer your question, yes, many people feel it has a significant upside.

Apple's prospects in 1995 were vastly different from what they are now. They HAD huge growth potential, and if realized, could and did shock the market. Hence the outsized returns in the past 5 years. Today, the ability to expand growth rates is FAR lower than it was then.

This is the challenge for investors in a big growth company - once the market adjusts its valuation, the long time investors don't realize that that means the stock gets ahead of itself, and when growth inevitably slows, the resulting PE compression can mean years of flat stock charts.

Good luck to all those buying today. It's going to be an expensive lesson, but sometimes that's the only kind that works.
 
Apple's prospects in 1995 were vastly different from what they are now. They HAD huge growth potential, and if realized, could and did shock the market. Hence the outsized returns in the past 5 years. Today, the ability to expand growth rates is FAR lower than it was then.

This is the challenge for investors in a big growth company - once the market adjusts its valuation, the long time investors don't realize that that means the stock gets ahead of itself, and when growth inevitably slows, the resulting PE compression can mean years of flat stock charts.

Good luck to all those buying today. It's going to be an expensive lesson, but sometimes that's the only kind that works.
This growth potential only started to become realized with the advent of the new iMac (summer, '98) and the iPod.(autumn, '01) The halo effect of the iPod/iTunes solution in combination with several other factors, i.e. OS X, Apple Retail Stores, iTunes Windows support, Intel Processor Switch, etc., propelled the year over year growth trend, and the iPhone has taken this 'halo effect' to a global level, which seems to increase the potential for a substantial upside. As more breakthrough products are gradually released, it certainly does seem possible that this trend will continue, and investors feel confident that it will
 
This growth potential only started to become realized with the advent of the new iMac (summer, '98) and the iPod.(autumn, '01) The halo effect of the iPod/iTunes solution in combination with several other factors, i.e. OS X, Apple Retail Stores, iTunes Windows support, Intel Processor Switch, etc., propelled the year over year growth trend, and the iPhone has taken this 'halo effect' to a global level, which seems to increase the potential for a substantial upside. As more breakthrough products are gradually released, it certainly does seem possible that this trend will continue, and investors feel confident that it will

I hope Apple keeps this up, I would like to work for Apple at least once in my life!
 
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