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I remember telling my parents to buy AAPL stock when I was like 15 when it was $80 dollars a share. iTunes was a year old and just bought my 3rd generation iPod 15gb. But they waited too long and never did till like 3 years ago...True story
I was advising people to buy on 17 April 2003 when the price was at 6.56! I remember it very well. What I can't remember now is what made me make the prediction that very day.
Many of the important indicators were in place: iMac G3 had just been replaced by a very very different iMac G4, iPod was doing well, but iTunes Store hadn't yet opened. OS X was a significant improvement on OS 9 and a massive improvement on Windows.
I had a Titanium PowerBook G4 that drew admiring attention whenever I used it in public. It even got me dates! That was interesting - a computer that attracted women! I knew Apple was onto something. When doing something as geeky as working on a laptop is sexy, the sexiness has to be coming from somewhere. I decided it was from Cupertino. Turns out I was right.
The stock price was at that time undervalued in my opinion. It was ready to rise. It doubled within a year, doubled again and kept going until the 2007 crash, and rode the recession far far better than any of the other tech companies.
What we're seeing today is a perfect storm, a coming together of so many individual factors and well planned decisions by Apple, that it's difficult to list them all.
They have been gifted a terrible opposition though. MS have been utterly clueless for the past 10 years under the direction of Ballmer. All the other Windows PC manufacturers have stuck with the same basic 19th/20th century model, whilst Apple have used every tool at their disposal so very very well.
500 is an easy reach for the price as long as the trajectory continues to rise in the same way it has thus far. But success is based on many factors. Satisfied customers tend to tell X number of people they know. As the number of satisfied customers rises, that X number will multiply logarithmically. If the X factor is only 3, the prospects for future growth are exponential.
One important factor in Apple's favour right now is the Chinese market, which could be responsible for a doubling in sales - all on its own.
Many people are pointing to Microsoft's rise in the early days of personal computing and [wrongly] predicting they will repeat the process. They won't because they are not innovators, and the climate that allowed Gates to buy his operating system on the cheap and sell it via a deal with IBM that was so bad it must go down in history as one of the worst ever, cannot be repeated. Also today, there is far less ignorance to exploit, the market is far more consumer driven, and they have no answers that people want to trust.
What we know today is that all past models in the tech sector are useless, due to these two factors alone: China and Apple. There has never been a market the size of China's before, and there's never been a company like Apple before.