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Apple stock tanking :-0

A

Apple Corps

macrumors 68030
Original poster
Apr 26, 2003
2,575
542
California
Any ideas as to what may be behind Apple's tanking stock price? Several analysts have been positive on Apple recently but the stock has been in decline from the $85 or so high in January DOWN to $63 today:eek:

Apple has been under performing most of the indicators over the past 10 weeks.

One of my thoughts is that the last "special event" was SO LAME that investors became concerned about a boom box not being indicative of a strategy that would generate continued confidence on $86 per share.

Thoughts??????
 
well as people have been saying for a while apple stock was massivly over valued compared to others.

Also apple shipping problems amoung others are finally coming back to haunt them. Besides apple not turnning heads like they used to with new stuff. The hype of apple is starting to ware off.

The stock should be levalling off soon and become stable. Still a good value but a lot lower.

It a lot like yahoo stock was a long time ago. It kept going up and up to some where in the 300+ per share. Then it took a noise dive down to 150 a share where it levaled off for a while. (I dont know where it is not nor do I really care.)
 
CanadaRAM said:
Time to buy?
Click to expand...

Exactly!

Apple's fundamentals are great and they have a very nice pipeline of products. This is the best time to buy because the stock has been so beat up.

To Timepass:
Consumers are buying up the product faster than it can be made. Since when did people start thinking that this is a bad thing?

Oh, and I love how everyone relates EVERY stock that goes up, to YHOO. As if, simply because a stock grows, that it MUST be in a bubble about to burst
 
Blackheart said:
Exactly!

Apple's fundamentals are great and they have a very nice pipeline of products. This is the best time to buy because the stock has been so beat up.

To Timepass:
Consumers are buying up the product faster than it can be made. Since when did people start thinking that this is a bad thing?

Oh, and I love how everyone relates EVERY stock that goes up, to YHOO. As if, simply because a stock grows, that it MUST be in a bubble about to burst
Click to expand...

sure. I believe that load of bull that they are having those problems. You know a few times is ok but apple has time and time again drop the ball on their shipping of products when announced. 1 2 times I believe it but when it gets consensted and quite a bit I going to blame apple for it and I think the market it self is starting to reflect that apple is now gettting the blame for it.

Either apple needs to get a handle on it. or better prepare for this releases either by dealing them more so they can get the invitory built up or just up the ammount they produce a day. either one would work.
 
Abstract - what are your thoughts on why the plunge? We are dealing with a 25% drop over 10 weeks with generally good news about demand, early intel / MBP shipping, iTunes@ 1 billion, etc.

It is a "buying opportunity" but not until I better understand (if any of us really ever knows) why such a large drop. The April event really needs to be something much bigger / more important or I fear that Apple stock will take another hit.

Steve has tremendous business and industry "capital" - don't waste it on "boom box" announcements and lame events.
 
Abstract said:
Apple's stock isn't going down because of a bit of delivery trouble....
Click to expand...


true that it not the main reason. It just adds fuel the the fire.

The main reason was it was a bubble that was going to bust at some point. Just it was not going to be to huge.

that being said I go on one of my orgainal reason in my first post that the biggest reason is apple has not been turning heads like the used to with every release. the biggest thing is they switch to intel, the M$ annoument that Vista will not support EFI hurts apple a little. The switch to intel is going to hurt a little and the fact that they are just not doing anything that is oooing and ahhing like when everything was first release like g4 ipods, shuffles and when the new imac designs came out.
 
Apple was too high when it was at $85. I shorted it down to $68, made some very decent coin on the trade in a few weeks, and got out. Not sure if I'll take a long position this go around or not, I think I'll still give it a couple weeks... :cool:
 
We all love Apple, but not necessarily AAPL! I have bought and sold AAPL many times and the one thing that my stock broker of more than 20 years has ALWAYS told me is to NOT fall in love with a stock for sentimental reasons, such as loving OSX!! AAPL HAS been very overvalued (P/E!) for a while now, which is why I haven't owned it recently. Simply put, there are thousands of stocks out there, and you (we) are foolish to put our money into anything but that which has the BEST potential. I LOVE Apple computers, Steve Jobs, Final Cut, DVD Studio Pro, OSX, you name it, but that doesn't mean that I am going to autmatically jump and buy AAPL! Simply put, there are better stocks out there if you want to make money rather than own shares in your (our) favorite company.
 
Timepass - what you are pointing out has to be at play to some extent - there have not been any real WOW introductions. The new MBPs are a plus but it puts Apple at parity with the PC world as far as processors go.
 
Apple Corps said:
Abstract - what are your thoughts on why the plunge? We are dealing with a 25% drop over 10 weeks with generally good news about demand, early intel / MBP shipping, iTunes@ 1 billion, etc.

It is a "buying opportunity" but not until I better understand (if any of us really ever knows) why such a large drop. The April event really needs to be something much bigger / more important or I fear that Apple stock will take another hit.

Steve has tremendous business and industry "capital" - don't waste it on "boom box" announcements and lame events.
Click to expand...

basically analyst expectaions exceeding actual performance mixed with the fact that the stock was over valued. google's in the same boat.
 
People expected more from Macworld, and didn't get it.

Selling Apple's stock now is daft. The company is on the verge of becoming the dominant online media distribution channel for both music and video (if rumours are to be believed).

Apple is in the best shape it has ever been.
 
The stock was overvalued... I have to laugh at this kind of 20/20 hindsight every time I hear it, which is often. Does anyone here really know how to value stocks before the market does? Probably not. But anybody can easily say it was (1) overvalued after it goes down, or (2) undervalued after it goes up.

AAPL was a classic momentum play for about a year. People bought it because it was going up. Now they are selling it because it's going down. Neither move has much if anything to do with the underlying value of the company or its future prospects. For that information, look at the company's balance sheets and the analyst's forecasts for future profits and target stock price. All of them are pretty much unchanged now from when the stock was selling for $86 a share.

Nothing has really changed but the market's psychology -- and you'd need to be a hell of a shrink to understand that!
 
Reilly - sadly - you have probably hit it on the head - probably more "emotion" in these market dynamics than real analysis. The Intel transition is old news now - the release of Intel based Powermacs - even Quads - will not excite the market that much. The new OS will be a positive - but the spotlight may not be as bright due to the Vista launch.

Steve will have to increase the power of the "reality distortion field" big time if we are going to see some $$$$$$ growth:D
 
If Apple announces an online movie sales scheme, then I think the stock gets a bump up, if only temporarily. In the meantime, investors are skittish -- and not just about AAPL, but about the markets in general. The pros are talking about the prospects for stocks not being very good beyond the middle of this year.
 
IJ Reilly said:
The stock was overvalued... I have to laugh at this kind of 20/20 hindsight every time I hear it, which is often. Does anyone here really know how to value stocks before the market does? Probably not. But anybody can easily say it was (1) overvalued after it goes down, or (2) undervalued after it goes up.
Click to expand...


no you got it wrong there. it over valued when it makes a huge jump in value *aka more 10% in change in a short time span. Which apple stock drop by well more than 10%
 
I predict that apple has turned around for a few reasons:
-Apple is highly overvalued
-Unlike the usual surprises at their presentations, there was nothing expected and thus dissappointed most people when they revealed an ugly boombox and same design macmini
-the uncertainty that apple will be able to continue coming out with new products so frequently and that other companies like Microsoft won't steal marketshare
-many other reasons, just can't think of them now.
 
Timepass said:
no you got it wrong there. it over valued when it makes a huge jump in value *aka more 10% in change in a short time span. Which apple stock drop by well more than 10%
Click to expand...

I got it wrong? You just made this up out of thin air. There's no rule of thumb like this in investing, or anything remotely like it. AAPL's forward PE remained fairly constant throughout the run-up in market value, which means the price was closely tracking the (huge) increase in the company's profitability.
 
I've been long Apple for quite some time. My cost basis is $11 per share (Split adjusted). While I have sold several hundred shares in the high 70s, I started adding to my position last week.
 
IJ Reilly said:
I got it wrong? You just made this up out of thin air. There's no rule of thumb like this in investing, or anything remotely like it. AAPL's forward PE remained fairly constant throughout the run-up in market value, which means the price was closely tracking the (huge) increase in the company's profitability.
Click to expand...


yeah I choose a number out of thin air but lets face the fact apple stock drop really fast in value. It clearly over valued. If you stop looking at the stock from apple and just some random company then it easy to understand why it was over valued. Until you can do that personal bias makes you judgement rather worthless
 
Timepass said:
yeah I choose a number out of thin air but lets face the fact apple stock drop really fast in value. It clearly over valued. If you stop looking at the stock from apple and just some random company then it easy to understand why it was over valued. Until you can do that personal bias makes you judgement rather worthless
Click to expand...

Yes, you certainly know a worthless opinion when you see one. :rolleyes:

I've been investing for a long time. I've seen many stocks move up and down more than 10% in very short time-spans, sometimes for obvious reason, but often as not, for no obvious reason.

As I said before, hindsight is always 20/20. There's no particular wisdom to be found in reporting the past as though it's current events. The markets assign value to stocks every day. This is their function. No other assessment of value really matters.
 
Well, some recovery today in part banking on the "announcement" two weeks out. I think I'll pick up another several hundred shares or so @ $65.50 - $66.00.

I am counting on expansion into the movie download arena - Apple does have as complete a package as anyone - and more than most: OS / Applications / Hardware / Growing Content / Integration.

Stay tuned:rolleyes:
 
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