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Just going off of past patterns (when Intel was at their best) and how Apple has been going with recent iOS devices, it seems the most likely that they’ll support devices for the latest upgrade to software for about 5 to 7 years after that device is discontinued.
So, if Apple discontinued its last M1 product in 2023, Count somewhere between 5 to 7 years from that. So I’d say the M1 line of products should be getting the most recent versions of software till at least 2028-2030.
Plus don’t forget that even if you can’t update to the latest OS, Apple still gives the two previous generations of operating system‘s security updates for two years.
So M1 Devices shouldn’t be completely dead, as in not even getting security updates, until 2031 at the earliest, more likely 2032 or 2033.
Just going back to when Intel was at their best, the mid 2007 iMac ran all the way from tiger to El Capitan (10.4 to 10.11) and continued getting security updates until 2018 when Mojave was released.
That was 11 years, and M1 getting even longer is more likely than not
That’s really encouraging. Thank you for the comprehensive breakdown. If we really do see a near 10-year support cycle for these machines it makes the price much easier to stomach.

Guess we’ll have to ultimately wait and see, but a guaranteed ten year support cycle for a new (albeit expensive) machine is a much easier purchase to justify imo.
 
I don’t understand why they can’t just focus on an advanced motherboard on the Mac Pro rather than building new SoC for such a niche low selling product?

Like the old Xeon Mac Pros why not just have the motherboard do all the work and allow you to drop in 1-4 ultras at your discretion? The design of the chipset of the motherboard would be the focus then. If they need to update the Mac OSX kernel, then that seems doable. Certainly that should be a technical no-brainer for them if it’s required to utilize the four ultra cores to the fullest? Maybe that will be a major feature of the next Mac OS release, enterprise server readiness.

Doesn’t this seem the most plausible step for the Mac Pro? I just can’t believe they will spend a fortune designing some frankenstein SoC for a product that makes up a few percent of the sales. But designing an awesome motherboard that supports multiple ultras and all sorts of extra enterprise features, like maybe multiple nvme modules in raid? And maybe like 16 thunderbolt ports instead of PCI slots? That sounds logical to me.
Think about this.
If you are going to have multiple chips in your computer, they have to have a high-speed way to talk to each other.
Whether this connection (think something like Infinity Fabric) is connected via packaging or via PCB is less important than that it simply exists.
There are second-order issues that also matter, like the interrupt distribution scheme has to know about the full number of chips available, not just those on the "local" chip, likewise the coherency scheme has to know about all the caches, not just the "local" caches.

Point is, you can't just slap down multiple chips that aren't designed for multiples to work together and expect anything useful -- how does information, for example synchronize between these different chips.
You can get something that's not optimal (in power, area, performance) by adding "glue silicon" (to provide the interrupt handling and coherency) and using a sub-optimal (slow, high power) connection like PCIe to transport information, but that's not a great solution. You might use it internally for debugging, to write the next version of the OS and drivers, and to test fabric protocols, but not beyond that.

The Ultra solved this by having a (single) row of connections to provide enough connectivity to one other ultra (along with things that had already been sniffed out, like having on-chip support for two sets of interrupts).

But going forward, Ultra does not look like it is designed to grow beyond two. Which is fine! Every sensible design starts by testing the concepts in the easiest case, then growing. Apple began with a single core on the A4, a dual core on the A5, then triple core on the A8X (three is different from two, because with two, there is just "me" and "the other guy"; with three you have to add in the functionality of "me" versus "which of multiple other guys?").
Ultra showed that the design concepts of Apple Fabric scaled across two chips. Next step is to see that they scale to more than two chips, which will be done with M2.
The packaging question (will M2 Ultra+ have four SoCs in a single package, or an MCM based on two M2 Ultra packages, or two M2's side-by-side on a PCB) is much less important than the fact that you need *something* new to scale beyond two SoCs.

In a way it shows something of how well M1 has been received, and how great the M1 brand is, that so many people are clamoring for more M1 rather than an M2! But great as the M1 is, it looks like we have reached the end of its bag of tricks.
 
My thinking is that they will just have to live with the limitations. If they keep separate applications on each ultra then it would work. So for instance you run a web server, it only runs on one ultra. Your chrome browser only runs on one ultra. And your Cubase only runs on one ultra. Each ultra gpu could be connected to a different port/monitor. So for example you could run two instances of Final Cut Pro on two monitors at the full ultra gpu speed. It would be limited but still useful.

In terms of ram, 4x128GB is 512GB. They could limit the first generation to 512GB but promise that M2 edition will support 1024GB and then M3 will be up to 1.5T with the SoC technology improvements over the next ten years. Honestly many customers wil be better off staying with their Intel Mac Pros no matter what the new Mac Pro turns out to be.
 
Get the new Mini's released!
I'm itching to pick up a base M1 Mini getting dumped by an upgrader!

:p
I’ll tell you, I needed to replace an old Mac Pro 2012 server and thanks to the m1 the prices of the Intel Mac mini have really dropped on eBay.

I picked up a maxed out Intel 64GB mini, even with 10GbE, for $1000ish on there. Wow, it runs like a champ and keeps my critical service up and running perfectly And it’s 1/10th the size of the gigantic Mac Pro! Wow!

my Mac Pro is sad now sitting in the corner though.
 
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I purchased my M1 Max when it became available to buy and took delivery on it when Apple said I would. Today given what is going on in China and the rumors of what may go on in China Apple needs to find fabrication in other parts of the world for their products. I did take a chance with my M1 Macbook Pro 14' but I am totally happy with it. I am very glad to read about Apple moving ahead with progress of newer progress and would never expect Apple to slow down progress of technological development just because I own an older technology. It was very much what I expected when I purchased my Macbook Pro 14"! I am sure that anyone who buys the current generation of technology will be satisfied

The maxed out MacBook Pro 16 Mac with 64Gb is the best computer I’ve ever owned in my entire life going on over 45 years of computers, and it’s not even close. What an amazing job Apple did! They should let their workers stay work from home for no other reason than this!
 
My thinking is that they will just have to live with the limitations. If they keep separate applications on each ultra then it would work. So for instance you run a web server, it only runs on one ultra. Your chrome browser only runs on one ultra. And your Cubase only runs on one ultra. Each ultra gpu could be connected to a different port/monitor. So for example you could run two instances of Final Cut Pro on two monitors at the full ultra gpu speed. It would be limited but still useful.
Why the hell would you want to pay for a Mac Pro to run a web server?
 
Think about this.
If you are going to have multiple chips in your computer, they have to have a high-speed way to talk to each other.
Whether this connection (think something like Infinity Fabric) is connected via packaging or via PCB is less important than that it simply exists.
There are second-order issues that also matter, like the interrupt distribution scheme has to know about the full number of chips available, not just those on the "local" chip, likewise the coherency scheme has to know about all the caches, not just the "local" caches.

Point is, you can't just slap down multiple chips that aren't designed for multiples to work together and expect anything useful -- how does information, for example synchronize between these different chips.
You can get something that's not optimal (in power, area, performance) by adding "glue silicon" (to provide the interrupt handling and coherency) and using a sub-optimal (slow, high power) connection like PCIe to transport information, but that's not a great solution. You might use it internally for debugging, to write the next version of the OS and drivers, and to test fabric protocols, but not beyond that.

The Ultra solved this by having a (single) row of connections to provide enough connectivity to one other ultra (along with things that had already been sniffed out, like having on-chip support for two sets of interrupts).

But going forward, Ultra does not look like it is designed to grow beyond two. Which is fine! Every sensible design starts by testing the concepts in the easiest case, then growing. Apple began with a single core on the A4, a dual core on the A5, then triple core on the A8X (three is different from two, because with two, there is just "me" and "the other guy"; with three you have to add in the functionality of "me" versus "which of multiple other guys?").
Ultra showed that the design concepts of Apple Fabric scaled across two chips. Next step is to see that they scale to more than two chips, which will be done with M2.
The packaging question (will M2 Ultra+ have four SoCs in a single package, or an MCM based on two M2 Ultra packages, or two M2's side-by-side on a PCB) is much less important than the fact that you need *something* new to scale beyond two SoCs.

In a way it shows something of how well M1 has been received, and how great the M1 brand is, that so many people are clamoring for more M1 rather than an M2! But great as the M1 is, it looks like we have reached the end of its bag of tricks.
Well , I get all the technical problems, but what if you sandboxed the cpus and the motherboard was just four mac studios essentially on the same motherboard and then had the os do all the heavy lifting to make sure the apps ran on each ultra separately and the utilization and so forth of the four systems was balanced across the four computers and maybe you could hook up up to four monitors and each gpu would drive a monitor. My thinking is there would be some sort of chipset developed that used thunderbolt to communicate with and control the SoCs. It wouldn’t need a ton of bandwidth because you wouldn’t be moving large amounts of data between the different ultras, just bossing them around.
 
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I purchased my M1 Max when it became available to buy and took delivery on it when Apple said I would. Today given what is going on in China and the rumors of what may go on in China Apple needs to find fabrication in other parts of the world for their products. I did take a chance with my M1 Macbook Pro 14' but I am totally happy with it. I am very glad to read about Apple moving ahead with progress of newer progress and would never expect Apple to slow down progress of technological development just because I own an older technology. It was very much what I expected when I purchased my Macbook Pro 14"! I am sure that anyone who buys the current generation of technology will be satisfied

That’s what I’ve found: I purchased my 15” Retina MacBook Pro during the first generation and it’s lasted me basically until this year still feeling new and modern.

I purchased at the most ideal time since I got a 15” Retina Display, Core i7 processor, and flash memory. There has been no incentive to upgrade until the M1 chip and Mini LED display, which in theory should also feel modern for a decade.
 
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The maxed out MacBook Pro 16 Mac with 64Gb is the best computer I’ve ever owned in my entire life going on over 45 years of computers, and it’s not even close. What an amazing job Apple did! They should let their workers stay work from home for no other reason than this!
I got a bridge to sell you if you think the team creating the M1 did it mostly from home.
 
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Well , I get all the technical problems, but what if you sandboxed the cpus and the motherboard was just four mac studios essentially on the same motherboard and then had the os do all the heavy lifting to make sure the apps ran on each ultra separately and the utilization and so forth of the four systems was balanced across the four computers and maybe you could hook up up to four monitors and each gpu would drive a monitor. My thinking is there would be some sort of chipset developed that used thunderbolt to communicate with and control the SoCs. It wouldn’t need a ton of bandwidth because you wouldn’t be moving large amounts of data between the different ultras, just bossing them around.

But then what have you gained? If each app only runs on one SoC, and the SoCs communicate slowly with each other, no app is actually faster (except for being able to move background stuff elsewhere). And no app actually gets additional RAM either.
 
I got a bridge to sell you if you think the team creating the M1 did it mostly from home.
Really? So there were no members of the Macbook pro 14/16 team that worked from home while it was in development which spanned across most of the pandemic? Hmm, I just find that hard to believe but if you say so.
 
Really? So there were no members of the Macbook pro 14/16 team that worked from home while it was in development which spanned across most of the pandemic? Hmm, I just find that hard to believe but if you say so.
where did I say no one ever worked from home?
 
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But then what have you gained? If each app only runs on one SoC, and the SoCs communicate slowly with each other, no app is actually faster (except for being able to move background stuff elsewhere). And no app actually gets additional RAM either.
Well I mean like you can run more than one app, you know, and those apps each will run at the full speed of the ultra.

Imagine for example I am an indie game developer. I can compile and play the game on one ultra, export the main theme song in Cubase on another, export a character animation render in Blender, all while I‘m exporting a video with complicated filters on FCP, each running with the full speed of an ultra.

Seems like that could be useful to the right user.

Going to a bigger SoC doesn’t make any practical sense. Testing is showing that the ultra is only 1.5x faster than Max at a lot of tasks, I guess because of heat/power issues according to the sites out there. Ultra duo would really drop that even more than that due to diminishing returns of piling so many transistors together. The ultra already seems to have some flaws that prevent it from performing to scale. The amazing copper cooling doesn’t even help. Two ultras right next to each other seems like a bad idea at this point. Maybe a whole new SoC is what is required. But then maybe they should just buy the threadripper from AMD.
 
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It's great to see them being free to upgrade faster now however the ongoing China covid logistics issues might affect Apple as well with delaying some upcoming generations again.

For me the hardest part is to decide when the Apple silicon reaches some sort of "plateau standard" for a moment, as in when to buy to be good to go for some years. Mid term I am in the market for some new MBP but what should I look for? I have no idea of the general roadmap. The pro looks like being the sweet spot now almost max performance at way lower cost. The other question is what software can make full use of all the silicon's multi core capabilities yet? What hardware would just be expensive overkill? This leads to just too many people waiting for the time being from my view.
 
I wouldn’t be surprised if Apple doesn’t wait until March 2023 to introduce the Mac Pro with M2 Ultra based on 3 NM. It will make it be a clear stand out from the rest of the product line but also not too stressful in terms of production since those needing it will be niche and small.

We need to accept that reality that not a lot of Mac users are hungry for a form factor like the Mac Pro. Looking at the Mac Studio forums here, doesn’t seem like many are buying it. Not that it’s a flop, just that many people don’t need a stationary desktop these days.
Depends on the industry. Over at Gearspace (a music production forum) the Studio is the most popular release in ages.
 
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Gen 13 (Raptor Lake's ) schedule shouldn't be much in doubt. It is also on Intel 7 ( with making a narrow fab tweak that between 14nm++ and 14nm+++ ). The E cores ( Gracemount ) are the same (just more of them ... i.,e., incrementally bigger dies. ). The iGPU is the same. The memory controller appears to be the same . All of that is probably over 50% of the chip. If not changing much then going to be pretty hard to miss the schedule... as it is mostly the same thing. Converting from one die to another is a tasks that Intel really has not failed at. Iterating on the same fab node is something they have done on schedule over last 5 years.

Intel has already run a mostly-public demo

https://videocardz.com/newz/intel-s...-raptor-lake-cpu-with-24-cores-and-32-threads


The P cores are different. That really isn't going to be hard either. The Alder Lake P cores are mostly unmodified Xeon SP Gen 4 ( Sapphire Lake) cores. ( some L2/L3 adjustments but primarily the same thing; AVX-512 et al at the individual core subcomponent level. uncore memory controller is different. ). If Intel made some deliberate adjustments for a desktop/laptop tuned core that could be a substantive contributor to the bump and really wouldn't be a major schedule killer in terms of difficulty.

Intel isn't going to ship the whole Gen 13 line up. They didn't ship the whole Gen 12 line up in Fall 2022 either. Probably going to get some cherry picked top end benchmark 'targeted' SKUs to start to get some tech porn press buzz. And mobiles in 2023.

Intel is getting back on track by not trying to make huge jumps on a single iteration.

[ Rocket Lake was probably an unnecessary distraction. desktop/laptop Golden Cove probably didn't get the work done on it that it should have. Raptor Lake is just catching up. That isn't something that would blow a schedule.

After owning the 2019 16” Intel i9 MBP I can tell you the last thing I’d ever be buying is a more powerful Intel based laptop :lol:

My 14” M1Pro is way faster, way smaller, way cooler and way quieter.
 
But then what have you gained? If each app only runs on one SoC, and the SoCs communicate slowly with each other, no app is actually faster (except for being able to move background stuff elsewhere). And no app actually gets additional RAM either.
There are all sorts of ways that a bunch of processors can work together in a cluster, even if they’re only connected by Ethernet or even slower internet connections, let alone fast Thunderbolt/PCIe.

At it’s crudest level, if you need to (say) render a 1-hour 3D movie sequence, have 6 computers each render a 10-minute sequence, or 60 computers each render a 1 minute sequence… If all of those computers are in a single box communicating over PCIe, so much the better.

No, that’s not the same as having more cores or purpose-designed multi-processor systems, and needs specially written software - but things like ”compiler farms” and “render farms” are already common practice, and Apple used to have a product called XGrid to manage that sort of thing.

Bear in mind that Apple claims that the M1 Ultra already outperforms the 28 core Mac Pro, so they’re not desperate for some wheeze interactively scrolling the timeline in FCP a bit smoother - but if you have a process that currently takes hours then parcelling it up between multiple computers will often make sense.
 
If the Macbook Pro 14/16 rumour turns to be true, I'm just feeling sad for all the people that had to buy their new MBPs via reseller and are still waiting, not to mention the current lockdowns are pushing the production/shipping dates longer than months ago, even if you purchase directly from Apple, and they're never been short to be precise.

Ya I looked at upgrading to a 14” MBP M1 pro yesterday and it was a two month + lead time. No thanks! I’ll wait for the next Gen and see if this Obsessive Covid fear rationale finally clears up logistics.
 
Would it be worth waiting for the M2 Pro 14” MacBook Pro? I’m planning on upgrading sometime this year, but I can afford to wait a few months. Admittedly I’d probably be satisfied with the current generation.

If you wait for the M2 be prepared to wait a few months longer once it’s released to actually receive it.

Thanks Covid fear mongers!
 
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