Apple to Announce Q1 2018 Earnings on February 1

Discussion in 'Mac Blog Discussion' started by MacRumors, Jan 2, 2018.

  1. MacRumors macrumors bot

    MacRumors

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    Apple today updated its investor relations page to announce that it will share its earnings results for the first fiscal quarter of 2018 on Thursday, February 1.

    The earnings report will give us our first real look at iPhone X sales, as well as sales of the iPhone 8 and the iPhone 8 Plus throughout the holiday quarter. The iPhone X did not go on sale until November 3, and it was not included in Apple's fourth quarter earnings report.

    [​IMG]

    Guidance for the first fiscal quarter of 2018 includes expected revenue of $84 to $87 billion and gross margin between 38 and 38.5 percent. It will be a record setting quarter even at the low end of the guidance range, as Apple saw $78.4 billion in revenue in Q1 2017.

    Apple's quarterly earnings statement will be released at 1:30 p.m. Pacific/4:30 p.m. Eastern, with a conference call to discuss the report taking place at 2:00 p.m. Pacific/5:00 p.m. Eastern. MacRumors will provide coverage of both the earnings release and conference call on February 1.

    Article Link: Apple to Announce Q1 2018 Earnings on February 1
     
  2. askep3 macrumors member

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  3. djcerla macrumors 65816

    djcerla

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    #3
    All about the guidance.

    I've sold 30% of my shares just before Christmas as the stock will officially enter silly season after earnings.
     
  4. asdavis10 macrumors 6502

    asdavis10

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    #4
    The numbers for Apple are just staggering at this point. No one can deny that.

    But I’ll be listening out for a few things:

    1. iPhone X supply/demand
    2. Services revenue
    3. New US tax law and cash repatriation
    4. Impact of batterygate and how it affects software updates going forward
     
  5. 4jasontv macrumors 6502a

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    #5
    I feel as though the rumors have given reason to think the iPhone X isn't doing well. While our expectations are low good numbers will look great. So, yeah, I'm sure numbers are fine.
     
  6. HobeSoundDarryl macrumors 604

    HobeSoundDarryl

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    #6
    I'm also not buying the disappointment rumors. Apple has much too much cash to NOT crank up the marketing if the results are trending poorly. They certainly would not have to just accept poor sales results. One of the powers of so much cash is spending more on marketing any time they like (or need) to juice up some sales numbers.
     
  7. 78Bandit macrumors 6502

    78Bandit

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    #7
    This will no doubt be a blowout quarter for Apple. I fully expect them to be at the upper end of the $84-$87 Billion estimated revenue. The iPhone X will have sold quite well as demand wasn't satisfied until very close to the end of December; basically they sold all they could make this quarter. This should drive average selling price and revenue well up compared to Q1 of last year.

    What will be telling is the next quarter's estimates. Initial demand for the X has been met. The anticipated product shortages through the 2nd quarter aren't happening. I'm thinking demand for a $1,000 phone that appeals to people with discretionary income is going to be very heavily weighted toward the introduction date. You will still have the normal consumer purchases during the remainder of the year but I don't think the iPhone X will make up a significant percentage of sales.

    My baseless prediction for 2nd quarter revenue estimates is $52 - $54 billion as the iPhone X supercycle plays out, unit sales continue to plateau at around 225 million annually, and the lower cost iPhone 7 models account for a higher percentage of the remaining sales until next year's models come out in September.
     
  8. DocMultimedia macrumors 6502

    DocMultimedia

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    #8
    Show me the dividend increase. And pretty guidance for next quarter.

    I'm betting the iPhone numbers might not be as high as expected, but raw cash coming in from the App Store will be much higher than expected.

    I'm not an analyst, but my guesses have a probability of being correct. :)
     
  9. PickUrPoison macrumors 6502a

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    #9
    Well here’s my guesstimate for Q1FY2018:

    80 million iPhone units sold
    65 billion iPhone revenue
    90 billion total revenue
     
  10. ronno macrumors regular

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  11. WBRacing macrumors 6502a

    WBRacing

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    #11
    Unless you are a shareholder, it really shouldn't be.
     
  12. willnpc macrumors member

    willnpc

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    #12

    After reading a few comments I can see pretty much Apple stock owners are commenting, not surprising though
     
  13. PickUrPoison macrumors 6502a

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    #13
    Agree with 225 million units this year. My first quarter estimates are:

    80 million iPhone units sold
    65 billion iPhone revenue
    90 billion total revenue

    Second quarter I agree that X drops quite a bit but don’t forget about 8/8 Plus. By all accounts they are selling well, with the Plus outselling the smaller phone (for the first time). Anyway my Q2 estimate is

    52 million iPhone units sold
    41 billion iPhone revenue
    64 billion total revenue

    Will be fun to see how close my model is to reality lol.
     
  14. DeepIn2U macrumors 601

    DeepIn2U

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    #14
    I’m thinking 91 billion in total revenue. The iMac Pro sales, heavy iPhone 7 global sales, and an uptick in services revenue getting closer to 27% of total revenue will get factored in before this quarter ends.

    Repatriation of offshore moneys into the US will spark majors acquisitions across 2018, partnerships for foundries. Software suite will get major upgrades with requirement or option for more cloud storage purchases.

    Could we see a more powerful Siri subscription model?

    Quarter 2 will show us iPhone SE 2 launch, better alliances with Indian government hopefully leading to more units sold. iBooks may have some headway in education or just reading culture there (over the full course of 2018), with the help of iTunes U localized.

    Mac Mini to be introduced as well having a 30% profit margin is quite possible. Sales of a newly revamped model at decent pricing could be huge for say India or South American countries. We’ll see.
    --- Post Merged, Jan 3, 2018 ---
    Oh and larger stock buy back program with stock split (3:1), increase dividends. Looking forward to this.

    Just how many free stock is currently available?
     
  15. Abazigal macrumors G3

    Abazigal

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    #15
    I have a gut feeling that Apple will use the bulk of its repatriated cash for share buybacks. Apple doesn't strike me as the sort of company who does large scale acquisitions (like Netflix or Disney) solely for recurring revenue. They will snap up smaller companies from time to time, but that's mainly for the manpower and talent.
     
  16. Chupa Chupa, Jan 3, 2018
    Last edited: Jan 3, 2018

    Chupa Chupa macrumors G5

    Chupa Chupa

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    #16
    Why? I mean are you a trader or investor? If investor: was the value of your AAPL as a % of your entire portfolio getting to big and needed to diversify? Just needed the money? Dimming view of Apple's long term growth? Just selling because of the silly season doesn't seem like a valid reason for an investor to sell. A trader, sure: buy on the rumor, sell on the news.
    --- Post Merged, Jan 3, 2018 ---
    Doing a stock split along with a buyback makes zero sense. One increases outstanding share, the other reduces. Either a company wants to lower the share price in an effort to get smaller fish interested or it wants to try to pump up the price by taking shares out of the market.

    But stock splits are long out of favor except when it's to limit voting rights like Google did. They are recognized for the gimmick that they are. There is no longer a stigma of having a too high stock price. It's status now -- just look at all the multi-hundred $ and even thousand dollar stocks. That use to be reserved for Berkshire Hathaway. So forget about a stock split. Not happening.

    We should see a dividend increase. Apple has been doing that annually. Hopefully it will get back to a 2%+ yield with the repatriated money now available and not having to issue bonds for them. Buyback is possible Apple has been doing this regularly. I don't expect them to increase the effort more than they have been doing. Backbacks are also a bit gimmicky and have not proven to be a silver bullet for stock growth.
     
  17. djcerla macrumors 65816

    djcerla

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    #17
    1) the Euro is soaring and so the value of my AAPL shares is going down from my perspective
    2) silly season can (temporarily) knock the value down a lot
    3) I'm sitting on a >400% gain so it's OK to take out some for paying my taxes, etc.

    Of course I know that Apple is going to become much bigger and richer than it is now, and that's why I kept 70% of my shares.
     
  18. DeepIn2U macrumors 601

    DeepIn2U

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    #18
    Agreed. Just remember Beats, Inc was of the larger acquisitions in recent Apple history. Talent and hardware and brand expertise for recurring revenue and it's still working.
    --- Post Merged, Jan 3, 2018 ---
    I had these two thoughts for why I think/feel stock split and buyback (I think you had a typo above) was going to continue.

    Buybacks - protect voting rights (lots of funds) as well for executive compensation going forward.
    Split - for the executive compensation attainment. split the stock lowers the value for those wanting to buy new stock, this benefits Apple in terms of holding stocks that will vest in 6yrs for example for executive bonus'. To the current stock holders, as was the case for the 7:1 split just a few years ago, this was a huge benefit. After the split, each stock was $80US and had risen to $100US in less than 30 days and has steadily been climbing over the last few short years. I this occuring again.

    I still don't see why Apple's stock is having such a hard time rising above $200, 300 or even 400 to the likes of Google, Amazon.
     
  19. C DM macrumors Westmere

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    #19
    Apple's stock used to be pretty high up there before a 7-for-1 split a little while back.
     
  20. DeepIn2U macrumors 601

    DeepIn2U

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    #20
  21. Chupa Chupa macrumors G5

    Chupa Chupa

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    #21

    Buybacks do not protect voting rights. All it does it retire stock or lock it up in a company's vault. In theory it makes the supply of stock more scarce helping the price to rise and also improves a companies EPS. Of course, it doesn't work out that way if demand is weak. It has zero to do with voting rights. If a company wants to dilute voting rights then it can do with Google and Under Armour did and issue non-voting shares.

    Splits do not "lower the value" of a stock. They lower the per share price. The value of the stock remains the same. It's no different if you have a pie and then cut it into four slices. Stock splits are smoke and mirrors. They use to excite the retail class of investors because the lower per share price made it easier to buy a full lot. But retail investors mostly buy EFTs and mutual funds now because that is more efficient and effective way of investing small amounts of money.

    To the existing shareholder the split, in and of itself, does not increase the value of their stock's value. It just gives them more shares at a lower price. But 100 $1 bills is the same as 1 $100 bill.

    A stock is going to rise or fall on it's merits, not because it split. Again, the fundamentals or valuation of the company do not change because it's shares split. So if a stock splits 7:1 as Apple did and goes up $100 in the following year, it likely would also have gone up $700 without the split. Splits do not matter except to people that don't understand it's only splitting the pie into more pieces.

    As for why Apple is having a hard time rising above Google or Amazon, AAPL has outperformed GOOGL on a % gain basis, for the past couple of years. Only in the last few days as AAPL has slid as GOOGL taken over in that category. Direct stock price comparisons don't work because it's not a constant. Every company has a different amount of outstanding shares. A $100/share of one company could be cheap. A $1/share of another could be risky.

    Now if you are asking why AAPL doesn't have the rich P/E GOOGL has -- or even Microsoft -- it's because Apple has half it's revenue basket in one product.
     

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