Apple to Announce Q4 2020 Earnings on October 29

[InGen]

Competitors probably use this information (early iPhone sale numbers) to affect their own products and launches. So this is good for Apple because they can get the sneak on them with a reveal at the end of the next Quarter. Expect exponential iphone market share gain in the coming years. B”H

 

[Erehy Dobon]

Apple does not have as of yet does NOT have an A14 supply issue.

Actually it's possible that they do have an A14 supply issue. However we -- the public -- don't know it.

Some Apple staffers certainly know whether or not they have supply constraints of any specific components, even for unreleased product. Senior management knows. The supply team knows. Product marketing knows. The CFO knows. The Board of Directors probably know.

The retail team has no clue. They are always the last to know. The frontline customer service team is also clueless.

Remember that Apple doesn't manufacture their parts. They share semiconductor capacity with other companies. If there are any component shortages for the new iPhones, most likely they will be in the most expensive and cutting edge parts: the SoC and the display.

 

[PickUrPoison]

Actually it's possible that they do have an A14 supply issue. However we -- the public -- don't know it.

Some Apple staffers certainly know whether or not they have supply constraints of any specific components, even for unreleased product. Senior management knows. The supply team knows. Product marketing knows. The CFO knows. The Board of Directors probably know.

The retail team has no clue. They are always the last to know. The frontline customer service team is also clueless.

Remember that Apple doesn't manufacture their parts. They share semiconductor capacity with other companies. If there are any component shortages for the new iPhones, most likely they will be in the most expensive and cutting edge parts: the SoC and the display.

It’s also possible they have a shortage of Lightning jacks 🤣 But that’s probably just as unlikely as TSMC blowing their Apple production.

I’m not sure Apple has a more reliable supplier than TSMC; maybe Corning?

 

[Baymowe335]

40% is a ballpark estimate, maybe it's 35%. Do the math yourself.

Apple's fiscal quarters are all exactly 13 weeks long (ending on the last Saturday of the period) with the rare 14 week quarter. Right now, it looks like Apple will be realistically four weeks late with the iPhone which is 30% of the number of selling days.

It is unrealistic to assume that Apple will have unusually high amounts of inventory. All of these companies are struggling with availability. Look at Nvidia's GeForce 30-series launch. Absolute disaster with both 3080 and 3090 cards selling out immediately. The Xbox and PS5 pre-sales were almost as bad.

Silicon foundries can't pump out the chips fast enough and it's about to get worse. AMD announces their upcoming CPUs and GPUs this month. Apple and AMD (the latter is providing SoCs for both new game consoles) have locked up TSMC's schedule into the first part of 2021 already. Apple has yet to announce the iPhone and Apple Silicon Mac.

With the release of two new game console platforms, there is an abnormally high demand for premium silicon in a year that supply will also be constrained by COVID-19.

If I were a financial analyst, I would not highball Apple's numbers this year. There are way too many factors outside of Apple's control.

Yeah, you are Caught in the weeds. Same useless narrative from a few years ago when I was buying shares at pre split $90.

 

[Erehy Dobon]

Oh, don't worry, I have a substantial investment interest in AAPL. However, I haven't purchased shares of an individual company for years.

I only swing trade leveraged equities these days, either 3x sector or market index ETFs/ETRs.

I had direct ownership of AAPL between 2005 and 2015 at which point I sold and put it into NFLX. In 2017 I bailed out of NFLX (lol), my last holding of an individual company.

Hindsight is 20/20 but if I could have purchased any single stock at the end of January this year, it would have been PTON, not AAPL. Didn't see that coming! Who knew that would be the perfect COVID-19 investment before the first officially diagnosed case in the USA? Crazy!!!

 

[Jony Ive and Co.]

Remember when Apple used to say how many iPhones they sold? And how many preorders they did? Those were good times Lol. I liked hearing those numbers.

And how many iPhones they sold in the first weekend, how long the physical lines at the Apple Stores were, how people were literally camping for days (or maybe even a week) before launch day, and how Apple just couldnt keep up with demand 🙃

I personally think 2008~2012 (max until 2014 with the iPhone 6) were the prime years and all the hype, which were most exciting. Really miss those years and nostalgia

 

[44267547]

Competitors probably use this information (early iPhone sale numbers) to affect their own products and launches. So this is good for Apple because they can get the sneak on them with a reveal at the end of the next Quarter. Expect exponential iphone market share gain in the coming years. B”H

You’re exactly right. And when Apple stopped releasing those iPhone numbers, guess what? Google never released their numbers, neither did Microsoft. So Why should Apple? They don’t need to provide that information to competitors who are seeking to devalue Apple based on XYZ phones sold. They are a publicly owned company, but we’re not in a position where we need to know every facet For P.O.S.

 

[ghanwani]

So is $AAPL is buy going into this announcement? Last time was a blockbuster.

 

[bobmans]

Typical Q4 earnings have ~2 weeks of new iPhone sales, hardly a huge needle mover. The watch and iPad is out, so it’s going to be fine. Plus, investors know the phone is coming.

To be fair, in those 2 weeks of new iPhone sales they get a lot of sales. It's hard to imagine how many iPhones they sell during a launch weekend, and those 2 weeks could have a significant impact on the Q4 results on a YoY basis. But it doesn't really matter, it's not like people didn't buy the low-cost SE or other iPhones this quarter and it's not like that revenue is suddenly gone, it just shifted to the next quarter

 

[bobmans]

Actually it's possible that they do have an A14 supply issue. However we -- the public -- don't know it.

Some Apple staffers certainly know whether or not they have supply constraints of any specific components, even for unreleased product. Senior management knows. The supply team knows. Product marketing knows. The CFO knows. The Board of Directors probably know.

The retail team has no clue. They are always the last to know. The frontline customer service team is also clueless.

Remember that Apple doesn't manufacture their parts. They share semiconductor capacity with other companies. If there are any component shortages for the new iPhones, most likely they will be in the most expensive and cutting edge parts: the SoC and the display.

I'm sure their A14 supply isn't an issue. Apparently TSMC has very high yields on the A14 and Apple has all the capacity they need there (iirc literally all the 5nm capacity is going to Apple for this year, which is why Qualcomm had to resort to Samsung with their inferior 5nm process for their new chips).
I think if there's going to be any supply constraints that it's going to be due to Apple's custom 5G antenna.

 

[ArPe]

Wearables massive this quarter. Watch demand strong everywhere. Never seen something like that recently, except for the RTX 3080.

 

[44267547]

Wearables massive this quarter. Watch demand strong everywhere. Never seen something like that recently, except for the RTX 3080.

It’s very evident with the Apple Watch SE now launching, Apple is attempting to capture all market share for the ‘smart watch’ segment.

 

[DeepIn2U]

But, but the real question will be how many people that will buy the iPhone 12 will end up damaging at home and forced to buy another one within Q1/2121 🤪🤣😜 /s

 

[Apple_Robert]

I think we will all get great news shortly.