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Apple to Release Q4 2008 Financial Results on October 21st

ssteve said:
:confused: What......?

I am pretty sure that Apple is not into sub-prime mortgages or any type of mortgage lending. If what I say is true then they probably did not get caught up in poor lending practices. So my bet is that Apple will be fine.
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They actually may do great the 3rd quarter but as for the 4th quarter.... I really don't think they will give a good outlook and the stock will nose dive
 
butlertotheb said:
They actually may do great the 3rd quarter but as for the 4th quarter.... I really don't think they will give a good outlook and the stock will nose dive
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Agree, no new or compelling products, economic fears and consumer hesitation will mean a poorish quarter with more of the same to come.

However, the stock going up or down is more, imho, to do with the results being better or worse than anticipated, rather than them actually being 'good' or 'bad'.
 
butlertotheb said:
They actually may do great the 3rd quarter but as for the 4th quarter.... I really don't think they will give a good outlook and the stock will nose dive
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The next quarter is Apple's best, every year. But even when Apple continually reports record earnings, the media always gives a negative spin. And Apple shoots itself in the foot every time by giving a low ball earnings report for the next quarter, and the media then destroys Apple's stock.

It is reported that Apple has already sold 10 million phones in 2008 at a subsidized price of $200 from AT&T, and that does not include profit from each phone. Unfortunately, Apple spreads the iPhone subsidy from AT&T over 24 months. That subsidy on 10 million phones is 2 Billion dollars. I wonder what negative spin the media would put on that for earnings if it was reported as earnings for the last quarter
 
Lots of incorrect and misleading information being touted here.

First, this is the 4th quarter of Apple's fiscal year. Can we get this straight, please? Second, it has not been reported that Apple has sold ten million iPhones already. This was Apple's advertised target for calendar year 2008. Some indications suggest that they will meet if not exceed this goal, but Apple hasn't said anything yet about sales, so we really don't know. Third, Apple has always provided very conservative forward guidance, numbers they know they can easily beat.

Given what we know, which is that Mac sales have been increasing at rate of about 30% per year, iPhone sales are growing rapidly, and significant and completely new revenue is being generated by the App Store, I think it's safe to estimate that Apple will beat consensus earnings by 10% and their own guidance by 20%. Maybe a little more.

We can also be 100% certain that their forward guidance will contain all sorts of caveats relating to the slowdown in the world economy. It's not the "media" which makes a lot of this, but traders and investors. Still I would like to think that with 50% having already been lopped off AAPL that the worst possible news is already priced into this stock.
 
maccompaq said:
It is reported that Apple has already sold 10 million phones in 2008 at a subsidized price of $200 from AT&T, and that does not include profit from each phone. Unfortunately, Apple spreads the iPhone subsidy from AT&T over 24 months. That subsidy on 10 million phones is 2 Billion dollars. I wonder what negative spin the media would put on that for earnings if it was reported as earnings for the last quarter
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It is my understanding that Apple will now capture all the revenue & gross margin from the iPhones at the time of sale. The revenue captured over 24months model is from the previous phone (2G) where they had a revenue sharing agreement in place with ATT. That model was dropped with the 3G.
 
ssteve said:
:confused: What......?

I am pretty sure that Apple is not into sub-prime mortgages or any type of mortgage lending. If what I say is true then they probably did not get caught up in poor lending practices. So my bet is that Apple will be fine.
Click to expand...

Of course - i was just referring to the widespread impact of this financial crisis and the on-going recession. Was not lumping apple as a tech company in with banks but more the earnings decrease.
 
Its obvious that Apple will beat estimates... as they always do.... But they always low-ball their guidance... the situation we are in now is that they will be low-balling it even further... not because they want to, but because they have to... How will it look if apple says, "yeah we are all doing fine, economy is not affecting us, we will have a super 4th quarter into holiday season"... Even though we all know that Apple is amazing and WILL do great despite the economy, nonetheless they have to play the game with wall street... and low ball guidance even further....

It hurts me, cuz I got big time position in Apple stock... it got killed since early sept for no reason!! all due to macroeconomics! As Steve says: "Those who stay with us will succeed for the long-term..."
 
I can help there!

filmguy15 said:
Oh how I wish text could convey sarcasm properly.
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<sarcasm>Here's how I do it -- maybe I ought to file a software patent for it.</sarcasm>

I predict that Apple will release excellent results <sarcasm>and the stock market will reward them with a fair boost in share price as if to congratulate Apple on its continued success.</sarcasm>

It's a good thing my daughter's college days are about 7 years in the future. AAPL is going to take a little time to rebound.
 
ssteve said:
:confused: What......?

I am pretty sure that Apple is not into sub-prime mortgages or any type of mortgage lending. If what I say is true then they probably did not get caught up in poor lending practices. So my bet is that Apple will be fine.
Click to expand...

Um, everyone is caught up in the credit crunch/liquidity crisis. Consumer spending is way down as a result. What purchases are people likely to put off for a while? Cars and laptops.
 
I wonder if Apple has taken on any damage from the freeze in the commercial paper market. They're sitting on a huge pile of cash, which has probably been doing little else than being lent short-term to other corporations.
 
They should be releasing a press release any minute now. There is a Quicktime conference call at 5pm ET.
 
The following is an excerpt from CNN Money:
Apple reports better-than-expected earnings, misses revenue estimates. Forecast falls short of expectations. More soon.
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I can't believe I have to rely on CNN to bring me this before Apple releases an official earnings press release on their website... pathetic!

More news from CNN Money Liveblog:
* Revenue: $ 7.9 billion, up from $6.22 billion in Q4 2007
* Profit: $ 1.14 billion, up from $904 million
* EPS: $1.26 per diluted share, up from $1.01 in 2007
* Gross margin: 34.7%, up (!) from 33.6%
* International sales: 41% of revenue, up from 40% in 2007, down from 42% in Q3
Click to expand...
 
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