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We've reached peak iPhone (and peak smartphones) and Apple realizes analysts are obsessed with unit numbers instead of overall financial numbers. There's going to be some pain for a little while and then WS will move on....and then concentrate on just the numbers...

The thing is, markets depend on ever growing revenue. Right now Apple has that steady revenue increase due to them increasing the iPhone price while reducing the number of individual iPhones sold.

But that trend cannot continue forever. At a certain point the price will be so high that the number of people buying them will decline to a level that increasing the price doesn't create any extra revenue it just stays flat.

The concern is of course if Apple is hiding sales numbers that they are trying to mask the time frame on which iPhone revenue stagnates. It's quite simple you either sell more units or you raise the price but you can't raise the price forever and you can't force consumers to buy something they don't want. Apple has to make the iPhone more appealing before they hit the price ceiling where most consumers refuse to purchase an iPhone. They're not quite there yet but it seems inevitable.
 
The thing is, markets depend on ever growing revenue. Right now Apple has that steady revenue increase due to them increasing the iPhone price while reducing the number of individual iPhones sold.

But that trend cannot continue forever. At a certain point the price will be so high that the number of people buying them will decline to a level that increasing the price doesn't create any extra revenue it just stays flat.

The concern is of course if Apple is hiding sales numbers that they are trying to mask the time frame on which iPhone revenue stagnates. It's quite simple you either sell more units or you raise the price but you can't raise the price forever and you can't force consumers to buy something they don't want. Apple has to make the iPhone more appealing before they hit the price ceiling where most consumers refuse to purchase an iPhone. They're not quite there yet but it seems inevitable.
Apple is still providing revenue data and they’re still providing quarterly guidance (which some companies like Google don’t even do) so what exactly are they hiding? If sales start trending downward and fewer people are buying the more expensive models you’ll see it in the revenue figures. Once Apple starts an original content service and maybe a news service and is way more in to subscriptions then ARPU is going to matter more than unit sales. In fact I’d love to see Apple go to a subscription model for all their products. I’ll give Apple $120 a month or whatever for my iPhone, iPad, Apple Watch, Apple Care, iCloud and Apple Music.
 
Surprise surprise. Sales fall & in some cases flatline and Apple decides to circle the wagons and tell everyone "Trust us. Mac/iPhone/iPad sales are just fine."

Reminds me of that one Iraqi propaganda minister telling the press that Iraq was winning despite American tanks in the background
 
I've been crunching my own numbers on Apple's earnings for over 20 years. Every few years, they rearrange their categories and reporting structure to make it impossible to do any long term trend analysis. But this is something above and beyond all prior obfuscations.

Their excuse is facially bull**** too. In the same call when they brag about 2 billion iOS devices shipped and 100 million active Mac users they lie through their teeth that category revenue is all that matters. Make no mistake, this is an act of weakness, not strength. Apple's long-term strength has never been measured by how much revenue it can extract from each customer, but from how many customers it has. Revenue is a byproduct of popularity, not a replacement for it.
 
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Apple is still providing revenue data and they’re still providing quarterly guidance (which some companies like Google don’t even do) so what exactly are they hiding? If sales start trending downward and fewer people are buying the more expensive models you’ll see it in the revenue figures. Once Apple starts an original content service and maybe a news service and is way more in to subscriptions then ARPU is going to matter more than unit sales. In fact I’d love to see Apple go to a subscription model for all their products. I’ll give Apple $120 a month or whatever for my iPhone, iPad, Apple Watch, Apple Care, iCloud and Apple Music.

It's a good indicator to see if they are selling 2-5M less iPhones every quarter. The revenue won't suddenly just stop the gains will first start to be less and less before it bottoms out or declines but market watchers like to have information before that, sales numbers matter.
 
They probably don’t want customers doing the math. Unit sales are going to drop, but all unit prices have increased. They’ll still report record profits, but have less sales. If they told us all the real numbers, you’d see just how much more they bumped up their profit margin. Great for investors, bad for customers. ☹️
 
and the stock market reacted

image.jpeg
 
Have they tried to think that they sell less units because prices are ridiculously higher and higher?

Why don’t they go back to sell:
- flagship iPhones for $600-699
- flagship iPads for $500-799
- MBAs for $999
- Mac Minis for $500-600
- MBP for $1200-2500
- etc etc

And they would sell tons of them.

Placing %20-40 increases on prices of new product can’t last forever!

The cost of putting a new display technology in 2017 (OLED), can’t be higher than the cost of putting a Retina Screen on the iPhone 4 in 2010 or miniaturizing a fingerprint scanner and putting it in the home button in the iPhone 5S in 2013. Each of this technologies was a complete breakthrough at the time it was used.
 
looks like debt based economy is about to implode and apple is getting ready as much fewer people will be able to afford 1000 dollar phones even with montly payments
 
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I’m here typing on an iPhone X from last year, I like the phone a lot but even after owning it for almost a year I can’t believe what I paid for it.
The iPhone 6 for around £600 was the spot and I felt like it was worth the cost.
Even now the iPhone XR are £750 is not worth the money for what it is. iPhone’s are worth around £650... not £1000+

I also can’t believe the price of the new MacBook Air... what happened to this model that cost less then £1000?

I can’t see a future for iPhones apart from a smaller part of the market. In Europe Chinese phones are taking over, in the last month 3 of my close friends of got hawawai phones from upgrading their iPhone 7’s

When will this price craze stop? I’m fearing the day they start to up the price of iCloud/Apple Music
 
Apple is still providing revenue data and they’re still providing quarterly guidance (which some companies like Google don’t even do) so what exactly are they hiding? If sales start trending downward and fewer people are buying the more expensive models you’ll see it in the revenue figures.
How so? If all that is report is total revenue then you really can't tell what the quantity is. If it were only a single product, then yes, simple math works. But when 3-4 iPhone models there is no way to determine the quantity of each that were sold.
 
I feel personally that they've reached a point where the products don't offer enough value. Their stuff has always been expensive but it's now reaching such a high level that for the first time in almost twenty years I'm considering alternative products and ecosystems, I'm talking Windows + Android.

I'm not saying Apple is doomed, I don't think they're in trouble. But I do feel like they are entering this phase of their life where they're pushing a boulder up a mountain (high revenue and profit margins) and eventually it's going to get to the top and quickly go down the other side as consumers exit the brand due to it being too expensive and not offering the things Apple had been known for in the past (ease of use, functionality, great design and intuitiveness etc).

To me the company now more than ever cares about profit beyond all else. In the past I really truly believed they cared about making great products. Now I think they only care about making great margins and everything else is secondary to that goal.

I am not currently an Apple stock holder but I have been in the past. I think they're probably 75% of the way up that mountain I just spoke about, but this is all just my opinion I'm sure many here will disagree with me and that's perfectly fine.
Well said and I’m in the same boat. I’d say this is the very first year when I seriously started considering other alternatives. Apple products have always been overpriced in a way, but they used to have something special that would justify paying that extra buck. It’s no longer the case. Their laptop line is confusing and extremely overpriced. Let alone questionable design features aka the new keyboard or the Touch Bar. The new iPhones have problems with signal/cellular performance. The Xr is fine, but the screen is a total compromise at this price in 2018.
Also, their comment on emerging markets is irrelevant: people in China, India, Russia, etc. don’t buy their products anymore, because there are good alternatives there now. Especially, coming from all those Chinese manufacturers.
I’d give them about 5 years to reach the mountain top, but after that the fall will be fast.
 
I feel personally that they've reached a point where the products don't offer enough value. Their stuff has always been expensive but it's now reaching such a high level that for the first time in almost twenty years I'm considering alternative products and ecosystems, I'm talking Windows + Android.

I'm not saying Apple is doomed, I don't think they're in trouble. But I do feel like they are entering this phase of their life where they're pushing a boulder up a mountain (high revenue and profit margins) and eventually it's going to get to the top and quickly go down the other side as consumers exit the brand due to it being too expensive and not offering the things Apple had been known for in the past (ease of use, functionality, great design and intuitiveness etc).

To me the company now more than ever cares about profit beyond all else. In the past I really truly believed they cared about making great products. Now I think they only care about making great margins and everything else is secondary to that goal.

I am not currently an Apple stock holder but I have been in the past. I think they're probably 75% of the way up that mountain I just spoke about, but this is all just my opinion I'm sure many here will disagree with me and that's perfectly fine.

Their p/e is 20 so they have wayyyy more headroom with the cash they have to worry about appeasing Wall Street.
 
I used to be a big Apple customer. They made a good ecosystem full of things that made it a great experience.

But now prices are so out of control and unjustifiably bloated that I can try a less expensive alternative and find I can still have a good experience outside of the Apple ecosystem.

Apple needs to get these crazy costs under control and get back to making hardware that is fit for purpose.

Personally, I refuse to buy into the overpriced soldered storage/ram disposable thermally throttled underperforming fashion accessories Apple has been crapping out for the last few years.
 
They are doing this not because they are doomed. They just don’t want us to know that they are essentially charging 30% more for their products.

Sales are flat yet revenue is up 30%. They won’t stop raising prices until we stop paying their inflated prices.

My 128gb 7 plus was like $200 cheaper than a 64gb Xs Max. Granted it has some better tech in it but at the same time it has half the storage. Not to mention I’m sure prices have gone down quite a bit for storage in the past two years on top of other parts as well.
 
Do you honestly believe these numbers, anyway? I sure don't. I have all reasons to think they are hiding their own failures due to their politics and high prices.

And when I see reports like these
https://www.businessinsider.com/tablet-sales-decline-ipad-chart-2017-5
https://techcrunch.com/2018/02/06/apple-continues-to-dominant-the-tablet-market/

https://goodereader.com/blog/tablet...ave-declined-for-the-past-four-years-in-a-row

I am more and more convinced Apple is already falling behind and doesn't want to admit.

Buyers won't forget this 32% increase and sales will plummet. I am 100% sure of that.
 
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