I'm skeptical on this refresh rumor. Keeping a 13" MBP that doesn't align with the MBP industrial design seems odd. I'm inclined to think there will be a 14" & 16" MacBook Air, versus a standalone 13" MBP that doesn't align to anything else in the portfolio.
Because this is Tim Cook Apple, I think they'll keep the 13" M1 MacBook Air around as the entry point and for schools, intro the "new" M2-based MacBook (Air?) in 14" & 16" sizes, and have the M1 Pro/Max 14" & 16" MacBook Pros. This is far more logical in its approach.