This is the problem with all the newbie (post iPhone) Apple fans. They’ve only been around for Apple’s meteoric rise. It wasn’t always like this. There were decades of struggle, ups and downs, and failed products before the iPhone. But all the newbie fans point to the trillion dollar wall street valuation and profit margin percentages as if they’re some kind of cloak of invincibility.
You bring up an excellent point. Just because you are the dominant player in one market means little when it comes time to enter a new one. Apple was never the dominant player in any market until the iPod and, later, the iPhone. Two excellent products. But that makes them experts at building cars? Or producing original video content? I don’t think so. Granted, they could surprise us, as they did with the iPhone and cellphone market, but only a fool (ie: diehard fanboy) would take it for granted.
Video is going to be a true test for Apple. With Music, they had a built-in audience. Same goes for video. The difference is, every music service has the same catalog more or less. So an iPhone owning Spotify user might ditch Spotify in favor of Music. But I don’t think anyone believes that Apple Video is going to be a Netflix killer. So will consumers pay for another service? I have my doubts. I already pay for Hulu, Amazon Prime, and Netflix. I’m not really willing to pay for another. I poach HBO using a family member’s login in order to watch Game of Thrones and Silicon Valley. As good as those shows are, I wouldn’t pay another $20/month just for them.
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I think you’re jumping the gun a bit. Apple knows how to deliver content. But can they produce it? Big difference. So far their two original shows don’t inspire much optimism.
Overall, though, I agree with your take. But will consumers open their wallets for yet another media subscription? Adding another service is different from switching services. I’m already paying for several services. I poach HBO because the two shows I watch aren’t worth paying $20/month for and I wouldn’t pay for Amazon if it wasn’t included in Prime. If Apple’s original content becomes part of Music, great! But if it’s a separate/new/additional charge, I don’t think it’s going to be a slam dunk.