Apple Watch Orders Exclusively Online at Launch, Demand Expected to Exceed Supply

[TallManNY]

I would think as a senior vice president and member of the executive team, reporting directly to CEO Tim Cook in charge of retail and online - she'd have a huge input as to where and how to sell the watch. Thats what she was hired for.

No country wants to be treated as a second class citizen by Apple - ask Canada - but Apple can't release a product to every single country in the world at the same time. I was using China as an example because of their size. If Apple doesn't have enough product for the US - its home country - then they need to limit availability around the world until they can catch up.

This launch is highly confusing - see it two weeks in a store with a reservation but not be able to buy it in the store and then have to place an order after you see it in the store - nobody walking into an apple store tomorrow is going to understand that convoluted sales procedure.

My prediction is she's not going to make it - Apple is known for simplicity and this watch, and the way its being sold, is the complete opposite of that.

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I have zero confidence in Apple's servers. Since 2007 they have never gotten a launch right.

Well you might be right about her not making it. And yes this launch does seem confusing. It will be interesting to see it in practice.

But one thing Apple does not want to do is to make China mad. Those rich government officials want to buy their status items. Apple not releasing products timely is China despite them being made there is a slap in the face that Apple should never do again. I think launching in China on day one is mission critical to keeping the gears of the supply chain properly greased.

As for the servers on launch day, I can't see the pre-orders being in the same ballpark as the iPhone 6 pre-orders. Maybe there will be some lag during the first hour, but that should be done. Now what watches are sold out and on delayed shipment during that period, I don't know. I know that even on iPhone 6 launch day, by the time east coast folks got up and logged in at 6 or 7 a.m. the servers were fine and completely caught up. It is really just that initial rush.

I'd guess Apple watch pre-orders will not be 1/5th of the iPhone 6 pre-orders. So there should be no problem.

 

[Cigsm]

Companies aren't in business to audacity a product then keep it in some warehouse. They want to sell them to as many people as they possibly can.

They are obviously going with the withholding supply tactic. Once the new iPhone comes out, they will flood the market. Just "watch".

 

[HobeSoundDarryl]

And not everyone sees the Watch as useless either... what's your point?

I never said the Watch is useless. I think it's cool, interesting, and certainly something for people who can find something they want or need in it. I hope people who buy it, like it and it gives them everything they want out of it and then some.

As to my point, a guy said...

Also, FWIW, I'm 100% Apple, love Apple products, etc. But the iWatch is a solution to a non-existent problem.

...to which you said...

So was the iPad.

And I offered counterpoint that the iPad fit "solution to a non-existent problem". You apparently disagree with what I offered- and that's fine- but I (personally) find it difficult that someone (objective) could consider that phrase "solution to a nonexistent problem" and see iPad and this Watch as about equivalent.

You do? That's fine. Our opinions differ on that point.

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Actually, you can disprove it. Apple reports the sales numbers. This idea gets floated with every release. Follow up numbers (reported by law in the corporate reports) bears out the sales volume, no artificial scarcity. The whole idea is puerile. Apple has invested, I would guess, hundreds of millions in the Apple Watch and associated ecos sytem. Investors want that money back. The idea now is to sell- sell- sell to as many people as you can. You don't get 'cute' at this stage and run the risk of out smarting yourself.

Wow. I never said they have a warehouse full of watches and will hold them back. Scarcity can be achieved by launching sooner than when sufficient stock to meet a demand target is on hand. That won't show in corporate reports- they just pick their launch date. Wait 1 more week and they can make however many more they can make in that one more week. Launch in a few less countries and they have many more to fulfill customer orders in those initial countries.

What I did say is that scarcity is a good marketing tactic. It directly drives urgency to buy, a great way to motivate "sell-sell-sell" numbers to the max.

The other way is to spin "we have plenty, stop by and pick one up whenever you like". If the public could believe there is no urgency, they could get around to "buy-buy-buy"ing whenever it's most convenient for them. If they don't get newsworthy numbers, the press might write about disappointing early demand for this watch and that can lead to lots of people in the masses to question whether they really want one.

I did say it's a genius marketing strategy that works well every time. If you read it as some evil plot to depress their own sales, I'm being throughly misunderstood.

The negative in it (by not setting a different launch date or launching in fewer countries, etc) is disappointing customers wanting to buy one and actually getting one when they desperately want one. Instead, it turns into a contest where customers need to be lucky enough to get the one they want, else risk waiting weeks to get theirs. Having seen that with EVERY major product launch, my point in that direction is that it seems like Apple could get better at getting enough supply on hand to minimize that disappointment. Every time it's the same story. Fix it. If the shortfall is 30% of orders every time, adjust so that it will be 5% of orders and delight and "sell-sell-sell" to another 25% of your customer base. That still gets all of the benefits of the scarcity tactic while delighting many more early buyers.

 

[darkknight14]

If you think about it there are only 6 Apple watch models, 2 of which won't even be available in 90% of stores.

There are 6+ iPad models, I really don't get what makes this thing so hard to sell in-store?

 

[spectrumfox]

If you think about it there are only 6 Apple watch models, 2 of which won't even be available in 90% of stores.

There are 6+ iPad models, I really don't get what makes this thing so hard to sell in-store?

It's getting people talking, isn't it? I'm sure that's mostly why they're doing things differently this time. Change the status quo and people pay attention.

Then there's also their plan to try to cut back on scalpers.

 

[Brien]

Also, you know how Apple likes to launch things on a Friday and how they said 'early 2015' for the watch. Well their 'early' finishes at the end of April.

Ship one week later and they'd have to admit they shipped late and have to explain why. Maybe they have launched before they've been able to make as many as they would like.

Apple would have pushed the date if they absolutely had to (white iPhone 4 *cough*). I'm fairly certain they artificially constrain launch supplies sometimes, and this seems like one of them.

 

[Hibee1971]

This hype will be to determine what demand looks like - online - so they can then go manufacture your watch. This tells you Apple are not totally sure in itself what demand looks like. This will also allow them to gather data on which watch type/strap combos are popular. Think about it - if they just made a ton of combinations of all and certain ones didn't sell then it would cost them. Look at iPhone 5C - I'm sure this is their way of learning the mistakes of that.

Regardless - I won't be buying watch and I have Apple everywhere. It seems like a desperate attempt to leverage iOS into yet another screen. Give us iOS in our car - sure but i think watch is over complicated and cluttered. It's everything Apple aren't. If watch had been very slender, great battery life and just a watch - providing simple, companion extension functionality from my iPhone - I'd buy that. But it's not. It's desperate, me-too bloat-wear and so not what Apple has been about in the last decade.

 

[Boomish69]

I mean I like it but whenever I go to the Apple store to look at ordering, I'm saying to myself am I really prepared to pay £300-550 for a watch!

I know it does a lot more but I have my iPhone & do I need to spend that much money on something I haven't worn in over 10 years..I dunno

 

[Douglas B]

In Sydney (Castle Towers). Got here at 8:20, store opens at 9am. 6 Appple staff outside the door and taking names and booking people in for appointments. They suggested I could go away and I would receive a text when it was my turn. But I was one of the first so should be in soon after 9am.

At this stage, they are not sure when you will be able to make try on appointments through the app/web but they expect that it will go live sometime today. (Maybe this will happen at the same time pre-orders start or maybe every store will do first day appointments from walk ups and the online reservations will be for times from April 11th.)

Just relaying what I know.

 

[Hibee1971]

I mean I like it but whenever I go to the Apple store to look at ordering, I'm saying to myself am I really prepared to pay £300-550 for a watch!

I know it does a lot more but I have my iPhone & do I need to spend that much money on something I haven't worn in over 10 years..I dunno

The watch here with Milanese loop bracelet is $1029 AUD. The sport is around $400 AUD. Given there is no functional differentiator added - as the functionality is realised in the iOS software (the same in all watches regardless of price) then Apple are charging you for the hardware. I do not think that their pricing warrants the difference between say, the sport and the watch models. As for whether there's $13,000 AUD of gold present in the top-of-the-line model - anyone done the sums ??

So, I think the the watch is overpriced for the hardware you are getting. Is there really hundreds/thousands of dollars of differentiation in this product? The answer is no. Apples profit margins must be huge on this.

I will say one thing. I have a beautifully elegant regular watch which I wear. I also have a Fitbit charge HR which is awesome. I can't wear both at the same time so watch would solve this. That said, I'm not going to spend that money just to eliminate one device. My Fitbit does its job well and - to be fair - has a simple clock built into it.

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In Sydney (Castle Towers). Got here at 8:20, store opens at 9am. 6 Appple staff outside the door and taking names and booking people in for appointments. They suggested I could go away and I would receive a text when it was my turn. But I was one of the first so should be in soon after 9am.

At this stage, they are not sure when you will be able to make try on appointments through the app/web but they expect that it will go live sometime today. (Maybe this will happen at the same time pre-orders start or maybe every store will do first day appointments from walk ups and the online reservations will be for times from April 11th.)

Just relaying what I know.

Hope you have a good day and manage to get what you want mate. Hope the weather in SYD is as nice as it is in BNE.

 

[OneMike]

I know its not going to be anything like the iPhone 6 pre-order but I wonder if Apple's servers will be overwhelmed at 12:00PDT. I guess time will tell.

I wonder as well. Time will tell.

 

[Douglas B]

Big wrist update after try ons in Sydney.

230mm wrist here...

42mm Classic Buckle: I could do this up on the last two holes but the very last hole was more comfortable.

42mm Sport strap:
I could do up the Sport strap on the last hole but to be comfortable I would need to make one further hole. The strap was long enough to accommodate me making one extra hole but I can't be sure (sorry) that the end would stay tucked in.

42mm Link bracelet:
I didn't close the clasp fully and I didn't want to break it. It may have been more likely to cut me than break. But I think I could use it with two extra links. The Apple Store employee was not currently aware if or when they might sell extra links.

Also, we pulled off the straps on one watch and at the top end it does say in the crevice, 'Designed in California. Assembled in China' but at the bottom end of the watch it still has those five or six pins exposed that were rumored to be for testing but I believe are there to accommodate future straps with tech features! Like the Pebble watch will have. Just have to wonder if the straps with tech features will be long enough.

The watches I tried on were in demo mode but they also had watches basically mounted on the table that had running software you could try.

 

[AleXXXa]

Still hoping that that i'll get my SS link on launch.

You'll easily get it. Demand will be high for the cheapest option, as always.
Probably the space grey Aluminium watch will sold out first.

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The preorders start at 9am here. Nice! I won't have to wake up that early!

 

[Douglas B]

There's plenty of time to cancel that pre-order if you decide you don't like it after trying it on.

But it may not be so easy to make an alternative selection. Or at least the alternatives may have excessive shipping times by the time the U.S. get to try them on. :/

 

[splogue]

I've yet to see any material changes since she took over. The retail stores all look the same as does the website. I'm sure she's had a nice time travelling the world meeting the retail staff but at some point that has to translate into something tangable to justify the whopping salary and bonus she's getting.

As a shareholder, I agree. Furthermore, if I were her I would be very concerned at the lack of tangible metrics she can show to demonstrate her worth. At those levels, that isn't just expected, it is necessary if you intend to keep your job. If she continues just travelling around and shaking hands, she will be working someplace else by next year, latest.

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You'll easily get it. Demand will be high for the cheapest option, as always.
Probably the space grey Aluminium watch will sold out first.

Not sure how easy it will be, but you are very right that the space grey sport model will sell out first. I bet that one is gone in twenty minutes.

I'm thinking the second to sell out will be the black stainless link model. I could be wrong, because of the high price, but that's my guess. Those are the two models I've seen the most interest in.

 

[AleXXXa]

Not sure how easy it will be, but you are very right that the space grey sport model will sell out first. I bet that one is gone in twenty minutes.

I'm thinking the second to sell out will be the black stainless link model. I could be wrong, because of the high price, but that's my guess. Those are the two models I've seen the most interest in.

The black ss link one is the nicest imo, but i don't know if it will sell that well. It's too expensive. I think the mesh one will be the best selling SS watch.

It all depends on how many individual models Apple made, i mean it would be stupid to make in the first batch as many pink sport models as space grey ones.

 

[Cuyler]

Looks like I have to be very quick at 3 am.

I don't know if you need to be so much quick as patient and persistent. For iPhone 6 preorders, there was a long delay before the on-line store even opened. Then it kept insisting the model I wanted was unavailable, but after clicking around for several minutes, it finally let me put the phone I wanted into the shopping cart. However, that's just the first step — then you need to click "buy" and hope your request is accepted — if the transaction times out you had to start over again. With all the delays and timeouts it took about an hour to actually get a phone ordered.

Hopefully the demand for an Apple Watch will be less than that for a new iPhone model. I just want to order the thing and get it as soon as possible.

I don't want to go to a store and be told they're out of stock and maybe they'll be getting some soon. I take Angela Ahrendts' comments as a step in the right direction. I'm sure if a store has the watch you want in stock, they'll let you take it home with you — but that won't be happening in the first weeks when demand is highest. So they'll help you order it on-line right there in the store and give you a date when arrives at your doorstep or when you can come back and pick it up.

At least that's how it should work. Why hold back stock so every store has a few to sell? Sell as many as you can make as soon as you can. If demand exceeds supply, so be it — just put me on the wait-list, please.

I'll be up tonight trying to pre-order the 42mm space gray "aluminium" watch — I get the feeling that'll be the most popular model. I hope the order process goes smoothly. I plan to use the iPhone's Apple Store app — that has worked better for pre-ordering than the web site in the past.

 

[Cuyler]

The black ss link one is the nicest imo, but i don't know if it will sell that well. It's too expensive. I think the mesh one will be the best selling SS watch.

Of course... the black stainless steel model is the one Darth Vader would order — it goes perfectly with his all black ensemble. And if Apple has implemented it correctly, the astronomy face should automatically update whenever you disintegrate one of the planets in the local system.

 

[Gameboy70]

OK, then the alternative is that the mighty Apple so brilliant in every way and so cash-loaded just can't ever seem to find any way to delight every possible buyer by having what that buyer wants in stock on the day they want to buy it.

Apple is a SMART company. The pattern has been that EVERY major product release is always short of supply. That's great for PR but it also translates into customer frustration & disappointment unless you are one of the lucky ones. Since Apple is so smart and knows that demand will be huge, why not manufacture HUGE and minimize the disappointment with a chunk of buyers?

It's "incredibly difficult and time consuming" sounds great, so set the launch date from earliest possible to when you can make supply better meet demand.

But accurately making supply meet the demand is the whole trick, isn't it? There's a massive difference between knowing demand will be "huge" in the abstract and committing financially to a production run that doesn't risk being saddled with unsold inventory. It's easier to recover from a lost sale due to lack of stock than to recover from an unsold product.

Suppose Elon Musk releases a new Tesla that's $100,000, and the company makes 10,000 of them for the first year. Assume a 30% margin. If Tesla gets 11,000 orders, most of the extra 1,000 customers will happily (or grudgingly) opt for the wait list. If they only get 9,000 orders, that's $7,000,000 down the drain.

Naturally, that's an oversimplification, but the point is that no matter how much cash Apple has in the bank, or how many resource Apple has at it's disposal, there's no way to produce in advance the right number of units to meet the demand with zero margin of error, and there are material consequences to erring on the side of excess supply. The need for precision forecasting is absolute, which isn't possible with a first-gen product.

 

[Gameboy70]

Yeah, I get that too. However, my observations are that iPhones are always out. People are always looking at them. If there was no Watch, would you get whatever you expect to get out of the Watch with the iPhone? Of course. None of us can go back to any threads before we believed there was a Watch and find lots of people faulting the iPhone as being too far away to check or "fumbling with my iPhone" or "hard to pull out of my pocket". That's almost all recently invented inconveniences as part of rationalizing this new product. Hop in a time machine and go back even 8 months and post how cumbersome it is to pull out an iPhone to check notifications and you will get skewered.

Whatever you are going to get out of this Watch now, how did you get it up to now? If I was guessing, you looked at your iPhone on that desk when you were upstairs. Again guessing: that works perfectly fine for you much like we didn't "fumble around" with our iPhone or find it as hard to pull them out of our pockets until recently.

Claims of the iPhone's cumbersomeness don't come from smartwatch advocates; they come from mockery of the latter: "Oh, it's so hard to pull out my phone!"

There's a difference between saying a new device is more convenient and saying an old device is inconvenient. The former is relative, the latter is absolute. When cars started sporting power windows (yes, I'm that old), no one claimed that manually cranking windows open and shut was too onerous to justify spending few extra hundred dollars to solve that problem. Today, I doubt that you can find a new car without power windows.

Laptops aren't inconvenient, but for general-purpose computing, tablets are more convenient. But 10 years ago, no one was complaining about laptops' boot time, weight, or operational complexity. There was no reference point for comparison until the iPad came along.

In the case of the Apple Watch, the only reference point I have is this: I've been using smartphones for well over a decade, but have never been able to get used to using them as my only timepiece. I've never stopped wearing watches, despite occasional attempts to go without them. Compared to just turning my wrist, pulling out my phone to check the time is like eating with chopsticks when you're used to a fork. Yet hundreds of millions of eaters use chopsticks every day and don't find them inconvenient.

I expect the Watch's convenience as a timepiece to extend to other domains of smartphone usage, but I'm sure that hundreds of millions of people will find smartphone-only usage sufficiently convenient for at least the next couple of years.

 

[Boomish69]

The watch here with Milanese loop bracelet is $1029 AUD. The sport is around $400 AUD. Given there is no functional differentiator added - as the functionality is realised in the iOS software (the same in all watches regardless of price) then Apple are charging you for the hardware. I do not think that their pricing warrants the difference between say, the sport and the watch models. As for whether there's $13,000 AUD of gold present in the top-of-the-line model - anyone done the sums ??

So, I think the the watch is overpriced for the hardware you are getting. Is there really hundreds/thousands of dollars of differentiation in this product? The answer is no. Apples profit margins must be huge on this.

I will say one thing. I have a beautifully elegant regular watch which I wear. I also have a Fitbit charge HR which is awesome. I can't wear both at the same time so watch would solve this. That said, I'm not going to spend that money just to eliminate one device. My Fitbit does its job well and - to be fair - has a simple clock built into it.

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Hope you have a good day and manage to get what you want mate. Hope the weather in SYD is as nice as it is in BNE.

Not sure how your reply to my post was relevant, maybe like your saying I think its bloody expensive for a watch..am afraid the jury is out on this one. I'd choose the 42mm milanese loop but thats £519, for a watch! and you know they will supersede the models in a year or less. As much as I love Apple gear this seems way overpriced.

 

[Tech198]

Seems like Apple dug a hole, and cannot get out..

http://i.imgur.com/2QU07XO.png