And those forum members probably number in the thousands at best. A drop in the bucket compared to the millions diagnosed with diabetes. I've only been diagnosed recently and wanted to try monitoring before and after meals but emergencies that kept cropping up at work put an end to that.
There are two forums I am thinking of and are recommended for people to visit by healthcare professionals, though. And one of them belongs to the U.K.'s main diabetes charity. You are right only a tiny percentage sign up, and of those only a tiny percentage become regulars, but a lot more will read them even if only once.
As for your HbA1c example, that seems to apply to diabetics who are being treated and how that is managed.
For undiagnosed people having regular random hypos would be uncommon. But these would be necessary to counter the highs to keep the average in the normal range, and for as long and by as much as they are high.
Even if that is happening, someone would have hypo symptoms and seek help for those, as to naturally lack hypo awareness would also be rather unusual. Probably they will also be having symptoms of the highs too, though I have never felt a high (and have tested over 30 mmol/L / 540 mg/dL a couple times).
So the number of people like to be missed by an HbA1c test is extremely small. And the small amount by which they go low and high would likely fall within the margin of error of testing to make the Apple Watch unlikely to help them. (Because if the highs are highs are particularly high then the lows would need ot be particularly low to cancel them out on the HbA1c, and that would see them hospitalized.)
Besides, we don't know yet how accurate it will be. It could very well provide reasonably accurate results even if Apple doesn't get FDA approval initially. Non-invasive doesn't translate automatically to crappy.
For decades, researchers have sought to develop a noninvasive method to measure blood glucose levels, which – if effective – could revolutionize diabetes care. One company in Israel now has such a device in development. Learn about the origins of this technology, its early success, and what this...
diatribe.org
Consider the FreeStyle Libre 3 is already approved in Europe just a couple months after the FDA approved the FreeStyle Libre 2. Does that mean the Libre 3 is inaccurate? Nope. Just means the FDA is slow.
But what some of us have been arguing is that if Apple's testing is that accurate, regardless of whether they are registered as a medical device, they will have made a product that would revolutionize testing and that no medical company has been able to achieve. How likely does that seem?
Even accepting that may Apple have uniquely come up with a method of reasonably accurately measuring blood glucose levels, would they just keep that as an Apple Watch feature rather than spin it off for use in actual medical devices? Does Tim Cook really want to be seen as the next Shkreli, someone that can offer safe monitoring but forces the requirement of an Apple Watch and iPhone to use it? And especially in hospitals, where C.G.M.s are increasingly used alongside testing.
And current C.G.M.s work by measuring interstitial fluid, so as well as having lower accuracy than finger prick testing, they are also delayed. Showing what the blood level was around ten minutes ago at best. So the revolution that Apple's testing would bring would not simply be that it is non-invasive but that it would be allow continuous monitoring of blood glucose.
We do not know how accurate Apple's technology will be, but we can reasonably assume it will not too accurate or it would be developed as a medical device and not a consumer watch feature.