I don't think this decision is really about how lucky you feel.
I was talking about luck in the sense that you are "lucky" that your judgement call paid off. For me luck is a function of risk management. A balance of probabilities. Most people call it luck, and think it is some kind of magical force. Luck is no such thing, unless of course you never intended the outcome to happen and were unaware that it might even be a possibility.
Apple are going to run the A/C programme at profit? COAB! Why on earth would you expect them to sell cover at a loss?
I generally think that extended warranties are a waste of money for commodity items, e.g. microwaves, regular tvs, DVD players etc. But for complex/expensive items that are often proprietary and you have no wider market to call upon to hedge the bet of malfunction (e.g. BMWs, Apple, B&O) then there is a stronger argument for considering the odds more closely.
Whilst I have not made a red cent from my investment in A/C. I have had the pace of mind that if my $4000 MBP (I live in the UK, we pay more), should suffer a failure - which my previous Apple laptop did. Then I will be covered. The 2% p.a premium I paid on that is small change by comparison.