My personal view is that the expected life of a computer is 2 years. If it goes wrong after 2 years, I would not want it repaired, I would just buy a new one and get a new current model of my choosing (PC or Mac whichever suits best at the time). If it failed within 2 years then a minor repair I would do myself, for a major faullt, I would stat kicking off with consumer protection laws. As for accidental damage, well my houshold insurance policy provides that. If the computer lasts beyond 2 years then obviously I'm very happy and just keep using it until it dies or I choose to replace it.
I therefore never choose any extended warranty type of insurance policy.
In a previous employment, I had the fortune to sell this type of policy to consumers. Fortune because it was very rewarding. For every one I sold, I would get a bonus. If the store met its target for selling these policies then we would get an extra bonus. Now I'm not saying this applies to all polices or indeed AppleCare, but in this case, there was a large profit margin for the company. This experience also showed me how unfair these policies can be. For the most part, the people who purchase them tend to be the ones who can least afford them.
At the end of the day though, it is a personal decision. Don't worry about the statistics. If you feel that the price of the policy is fair for the the service you are promised then buy it. One more thing, if you buy an extended warranty in a physical shop, don't forget to haggle on the price.