Apple's $1 Billion Investment in Didi Chuxing Aligned With Electric Vehicle Plans

[KazKam]

I haven't bought into the whole self-driving thing yet, but that aside, it seems to me that markets like China, where relatively very few own personal motorized transportation, will be way more receptive and poised to adopt autonomous vehicles than the land of the free and the home of the V8.

 

[yaxomoxay]

if Apple is building a car, depending on the stage they're in, they should probably lift the veil of secrecy at least on some parts of the project. A car is something where you want as much outside input as possible.

 

[Nunyabinez]

I had every faith that if Steve Jobs wanted to pursue a car - he probably would succeed. He probably would also have known when to throw in the towel if Apple didn't produce something extraordinary.
Do I feel the same way about Ive and Cook? No.
However, do I feel the same way about Musk? Yes.

I think Tesla has out-Apple'd Apple - Tesla seems to 'get it' when it comes to the kind of playbook that Apple used to have.

Today's Apple thinks that thinner + rose gold = innovation. They really have lost it.

Even if the Project Titan comes to fruition, they have a minimum of three years before showing us that they can innovate. In the meantime, their 'A' talent will not be focused on their core products. Worse than "Apple is doomed", will be "Apple is irrelevant". Nothing worse.

I think Ive has checked out, and Cook is getting desperate. They can sink all the money they want into Spaceship Campus, and Project Titan.

It will be the equivalent of the saying, "Nero fiddling while Rome burned."

I wish I had a nickel for every time I heard someone say "Apple is doomed." Maybe you're just young, but I had an Apple IIe for my first computer. Every year since then I have listened to people say "the end for Apple is near." Still waiting...

It is inevitable that Apple will fade out someday, but if you think you can predict that day, well, you're wrong.

 

[yaxomoxay]

I wish I had a nickel for every time I heard someone say "Apple is doomed."

In all fairness, he's not saying that apple is doomed. he's just criticizing some business decisions, which is also what I am doing. Hopefully Apple will prove me wrong, but it seems that they're pissing off incrementally more people, and they almost abandoned their true "core", the so called Pros.

 

[Juicy Box]

Remember after Steve was fired from Apple, they started dabbling into really weird niche products that had nothing to do with their core business and sales across the board began to tank due to lack of updates/innovation in the products that actually made money thus crippling the company revenue?
I look at the numbers for iPhones and Mac's going down year over year, stories like this one indicating more and more capital and resources being diverted from core product R&D into this "Apple Car," and I can't help but get a chilling sense of deja vu.

Great point.

With the increased amount of R&D spending probably going to the Project Titan, I wonder if some of that could go to stable OSs, better hardware, and more attention for their current products.

I calculated that Apple's projected R&D spending will be more than $317 per second. That seems crazy high if the increase is only for the car. This kind of reminds me of when Kodak was spending crazy high on R&D.

With all the problems we have been hearing about in the past year, I wonder if Apple would be better suited concentrating on their core competencies, instead of spending so much on something like a car.

I am not saying I hate the ideal of Apple making some type of car, or car related product. I just seems like the quality of everything else at Apple has been in decline in the past few years, maybe Apple should not forget what made them great.

 

[kodos]

I wish I had a nickel for every time I heard someone say "Apple is doomed." Maybe you're just young, but I had an Apple IIe for my first computer. Every year since then I have listened to people say "the end for Apple is near." Still waiting...

It is inevitable that Apple will fade out someday, but if you think you can predict that day, well, you're wrong.

Commodore 64 was my first computer. Not young. Neither did I predict the end of Apple. Apple almost sunk to nothing before Jobs came back. I remember that quite vividly. They weren't doomed, but they were virtually irrelevant.

I think the same will happen again, but this time they have a much larger market share and war chest to keep the momentum going further.

If you want to dismiss all of us who take the time to write an actual analysis as knee jerk "Apple is doomed" naysayers, then I cannot help you. I can dismiss everything you say as "Apple fanboy'ism", and there's really no point to having a rational discussion.

 

[Michaelgtrusa]

The self driving car can never replace the real driver.

 

[ConnorMcJeebus]

Aside from whether or not this is a financially responsible investment for the company (debatable, impossible to say right now), doesn't their desperation to make it in China make Apple socially/politically irresponsible?

They're one of the biggest corporations in the world. A corporation that loves to toot their own horn for recycling, treating labourers fairly, LGBT rights, equality, education, privacy, blah blah blah blah...

Then they go and suck up to a communist government that suppresses all of that.

With all their power and money, Tim & Co. can and should be better than that.

 

[Dale Dangler]

It's hard to tell at this point, but it seems as if Apple is getting desperate now thanks to the failing stock, and is trying things they usually wouldn't in order to impress analysts and bring the stock price back up. Regardless, Apple seems to have lost touch with the United States a little bit, and it's the United States that put Apple on the map.

 

[Johnny907]

People said that about the iPhone. There were computers and there were phones -- and the two worlds were entirely separate. Not a core business at all.

Apple is a company that is really good at using industrial design + engineering to create consumer products. They are trying to learn how to get better at software services. In some ways, I'd say the software services are more of a stretch for Apple than a car, which seems perfectly aligned with their strengths in industrial design, engineering, and manufacturing.

The difference being the market was pushing Apple to release a phone for years before they finally did, which is partially why the ROKR was such a loathed product. Is anyone besides the diehard Apple fanboi faithful that would buy anything with an Apple logo on it asking for an Apple Car right now? They have no background whatsoever in this market, no experience, no expertise, no history. At least with the iPhone, Apple had two decades of consumer electronics capped by a wildly successful iPod line under it's belt before it dipped its toes in the mobile phone waters. This is more like Boeing announcing it's going to release a line of laptops.

Here's an idea: release a substantial MBP and Mac Pro update. Release an update to the rMB with a SECOND USB-C port (and Thunderbolt 3 if we're being honest) Retire or substantially discount the Air line and position it as the new entry level device for students, replacing the years-old non-retina MB. Release an OLED iPhone starting at 32GB and give up this 16GB nonsense once and for all. Release SOMETHING that gets people excited again about Apple products for god's sake, and watch that stock price and those sales numbers rebound.

 

[jhfenton]

The self driving car can never replace the real driver.

That is one of the worst predictions ever.

 

[a.gomez]

All sounds like pie in the sky. They should just partner with someone like Volvo for their car project - Their concept 26 is beautiful and can bring something real to the table - from tech to a sense of design. This is like the Beats deal, lining Apple up with another garbage partner.

Last I check all payment system go via UnionPay in China (ApplePay is just a logo in China) you think UnionPay is going to favor Apple over Xiaomi who also has the same deal for mobile payment with them?

How about spending some money on Updating the Macs and getting the Design department back in order first.

 

[ctyrider]

I was just asking a question, that you didn't really answer. Are you saying that if Jobs was still around he wouldn't have achieved the same level of growth since Cook took over? Which era of Apple is really more likely to have been the driving force in Apples current success? Is that really debatable at this point in time? Has Cook really revolutionized the company or just kept it afloat? He has made a lot of rather odd decisions since he took over, especially the "big ones." (Purchase of Beats Electronics, Apple Watch, 1 billion dollar bribe/investment in a Chinese company who is the biggest competitor to a potential US powerhouse in UBER)

Asking what would or wouldn't have happened had Jobs been alive is completely pointless, since no one can possibly answer that. Not only it is pointless, but it's also irrelevant. The reality of it is that Jobs has been dead for several years, and Tim Cook is in charge of Apple. All this armchair quarterbacking in the Internet forums about what Tim could have done differently.. or what Jobs would have done instead is a bunch of hogwash.

Fact of the matter is - Tim Cook is in charge of Apple, and he does what he thinks is best for the company. It is beyond debate that Apple has been one of (if not "the") most profitable and admired companies in history.. Both before Jobs death and after, under Tim Cook's leadership. Once that changes and Apple's board and shareholders decide to replace Tim Cook - perhaps then you can apply for the role of Apple's next CEO, and then we will see if you do better.

 

[John Mcgregor]

The self driving car can never replace the real driver.

You lie.

 

[Gasu E.]

I just seems like the quality of everything else at Apple has been in decline in the past few years.

I'd really like to see some actual evidence to support that point. I realize you are not the first one to say this.

Accounts of bugs or problems currently escaping to the field is not evidence of this, unless you can provide some objective comparison with an earlier baseline.

It seems to me that Apple a. gets a lot more media attention than before, and b. the iPhone has a much, MUCH larger user base than any previous product. Therefore, you are going to hear more about problems now, even if quality has actually gotten better.

 

[Nunyabinez]

I was just asking a question, that you didn't really answer. Are you saying that if Jobs was still around he wouldn't have achieved the same level of growth since Cook took over? Which era of Apple is really more likely to have been the driving force in Apples current success? Is that really debatable at this point in time? Has Cook really revolutionized the company or just kept it afloat? He has made a lot of rather odd decisions since he took over, especially the "big ones." (Purchase of Beats Electronics, Apple Watch, 1 billion dollar bribe/investment in a Chinese company who is the biggest competitor to a potential US powerhouse in UBER)

I didn't answer your question because it is an unknowable thing. Like the people who say "Steve would have never allowed this." No one knows or can know. What I do know is that Steve trusted Tim and told him to not try to run the company by doing what he thought Steve would do, but to use his own skill and insights to make decisions.

The wisdom of what Tim has done will not be fully known for many years. Just as people told Steve that getting into phones was stupid and now everyone here complains that the Mac gets short shrift because the iPhone is most of Apple's revenue, the iCar may do the same. Or it may bankrupt the company. But posters on a blog who think they know how to run a multi-billion dollar company just strikes me as an incredible level of hubris.

Another perceptual bias that people have is the hindsight bias where they think that the outcome of a decision once it is known could have been predicted when it couldn't have. Beats may not have turned out to be a good decision, but we don't know what they are or were planning on doing with it. And the Apple watch is still in its infancy. I didn't buy one because I think it might be much better in future iterations. But it might be a dud. Maybe it's the internet generation that can't patiently wait for things to pan out or not before making a judgement.

And finally, I think Apple has been a victim of its own success. You complain because Tim Cook hasn't revolutionized anything. How many companies ever make huge revolutions in an industry? Apple has done it several times and now just a great CEO isn't enough for people. Unless Apple turns some industry on it's head every year we're complaining.

 

[virginblue4]

Does it make it even worse that Tim Cook is trying to align and integrate the company on a substantial level with a communist government with a terrible human rights record?

Seems to me that Tim Cook has taken for granted the market that has turned the company into what it has become, the United States, because he feels beholden to the market to keep searching for higher and higher returns. But instead of focusing on innovation through the pipeline, and continuing to focus on what has made Apple great, he's been looking for short term solutions by focusing so heavily on emerging markets. And I'm not saying that trying to capitalize on countries like China and India should not be a focus, but to do so in a way that I feel is detrimental to the long term interests of the company is short sighted and could be a costly mistake. If US consumers start to feel that Apple is prioritizing Chineze business over America interests because it is a "bigger" market with more growth potential, then they are going to start looking elsewhere. And if US consumers start to go elsewhere, then the shine of Apple begins to wear off and it could be crippling on its business worldwide. Now, obviously a worst case scenario, but I don't like the direction Cook is taking the company, and haven't for a while now (see fashion wearables, multiple color computers, low power computers, increasing share buybacks, etc.). A little worrisome.

You're worried about fashion wearables and computers that come in multiple colours, really?

Smart watches weren't selling. Apple took a different approach on a smart watch by marketing it to everyone (sports, business, fashion, health) and it's now the most successful smart watch that currently exists. But you're not happy with that?

I suppose we should be thankful that people with long term vision currently head Apple and are looking at new markets, rather than short term thinkers as you're coming across as.

I had every faith that if Steve Jobs wanted to pursue a car - he probably would succeed. He probably would also have known when to throw in the towel if Apple didn't produce something extraordinary.
Do I feel the same way about Ive and Cook? No.
However, do I feel the same way about Musk? Yes.

I think Tesla has out-Apple'd Apple - Tesla seems to 'get it' when it comes to the kind of playbook that Apple used to have.

Today's Apple thinks that thinner + rose gold = innovation. They really have lost it.

Even if the Project Titan comes to fruition, they have a minimum of three years before showing us that they can innovate. In the meantime, their 'A' talent will not be focused on their core products. Worse than "Apple is doomed", will be "Apple is irrelevant". Nothing worse.

I think Ive has checked out, and Cook is getting desperate. They can sink all the money they want into Spaceship Campus, and Project Titan.

It will be the equivalent of the saying, "Nero fiddling while Rome burned."

Honestly, I don't know where to begin with this comment. Tesla have 'out-Apple'd' Apple? Can you explain a little further? Basically you're saying Tesla have done a better job of building a car than Apple? You're right. Apple don't have a car. I think Coca Cola have 'out-Apple'd' Apple as well when it comes to the soft drinks industry. I guess Apple are now going to become irrelevant.

I'm pretty sure that they're main talent can focus on more than one thing. The fact that it is rumoured that Apple have hired over 1000 engineers to work on Project Titan, makes it sound like they have plenty of expertise. It's not like they've moved everyone from the iPhone/iPad/Mac/Apple Watch team over to Project Titan.

Again, I'm seriously glad you're not running Apple. All we would probably see is new versions of products in already saturated markets. Moving to new markets is going to be key to the success of Apple. Electric vehicles and autonomous vehicles are going to be HUGE.

 

[tampageek]

Sadly, I can almost see a day when Apple is out of the computer business.

 

[Gasu E.]

This is more like Boeing announcing it's going to release a line of laptops.

No, it isn't; it's a financial investment, not the creation of a product. Apple investing in Didi is more like a chemical company buying stock in a car company.

 

[Reds622]

Asking what would or wouldn't have happened had Jobs been alive is completely pointless, since no one can possibly answer that. Not only it is pointless, but it's also irrelevant. The reality of it is that Jobs has been dead for several years, and Tim Cook is in charge of Apple. All this armchair quarterbacking in the Internet forums about what Tim could have done differently.. or what Jobs would have done instead is a bunch of hogwash.

Fact of the matter is - Tim Cook is in charge of Apple, and he does what he thinks is best for the company. It is beyond debate that Apple has been one of (if not "the") most profitable and admired companies in history.. Both before Jobs death and after, under Tim Cook's leadership. Once that changes and Apple's board and shareholders decide to replace Tim Cook - perhaps then you can apply for the role of Apple's next CEO, and then we will see if you do better.

Someone made the point that Cook has been in charge of substantial increases in revenue. I simply asked the question of which era or Apple is ultimately responsible for that growth, as the decisions that have been made since Jobs died and Cook took over I think should be viewed with skepticism. Has Cook been a great manager, or did he just inherit a jewel of a company and failed in his time of moving Apple in a positive direction? If Apple ever did decline into irrelevance, I think we can both agree that it would happen slowly, and decisions that were made during a prolonged period of time surely would be the cause..

In regards to making me CEO.. That seems to be the last line of defense for some around here when another poster criticizes the direction and/or decision making that is happening in the company. If you don't like it, well let's see if you can do better! Why aren't you in charge! Seems hyperbolic and unnecessary. There have been a lot of smart people who have run companies into the ground. There is something to be said for having the right "instinct" when it comes to making business decisions. Not that I'm saying that the naysayers have a better business sense than Tim Cook does, but that doesn't mean you can't question some of the decisions that he's making. Was John Scully fired because he was a great CEO and decision maker? He took the company in a terrible direction and was replaced because of it. CEO's make mistakes. And all I'm saying is that I don't like the direction Cook is taking the company. A lot of his big decisions have been head scratchers and contradictory to the Brand.

 

[tampageek]

It's hard to tell at this point, but it seems as if Apple is getting desperate now thanks to the failing stock, and is trying things they usually wouldn't in order to impress analysts and bring the stock price back up. Regardless, Apple seems to have lost touch with the United States a little bit, and it's the United States that put Apple on the map.

Maybe Apple sees the writing on the wall when it comes to the US economy. Everyone admits that income inequality can't keep growing the way it has, yet no one seems capable of doing anything about it (or willing.) At some point, there simply won't be enough middle class Americans left that are able to pay $1500 for a computer or $800 for a phone on a regular basis.

 

[Nunyabinez]

Commodore 64 was my first computer. Not young. Neither did I predict the end of Apple. Apple almost sunk to nothing before Jobs came back. I remember that quite vividly. They weren't doomed, but they were virtually irrelevant.

I think the same will happen again, but this time they have a much larger market share and war chest to keep the momentum going further.

If you want to dismiss all of us who take the time to write an actual analysis as knee jerk "Apple is doomed" naysayers, then I cannot help you. I can dismiss everything you say as "Apple fanboy'ism", and there's really no point to having a rational discussion.

To be fair, I think saying "Nero fiddling while Rome burned." =/= "Apple is doomed" is a little disingenuous. But taking you at your word, I think that whoever Apple's CEO is has to look to the future and the future is not phones and computers. As everyone is acutely aware, the phone market is pretty saturated and I doubt that there are many "revolutionary" innovations left in that space. Maybe cars are not the right area, but only time will tell. Very few people thought that phones were the right area when the first iPhone was announced either.

And I am hardly an Apple fanboy. I am a computer guy, and I love Apple because of their computers, not the iPhone (I have an iPhone, but I would switch to android long before I would give up OS X.) And I'm not really interested in an Apple car. I NEVER would buy a new car. I always let someone else pay for the depreciation and then drive my car until it literally falls apart. But, that may be where Apple has to go to find any open space to innovate.

And I just think it's way too early to say that Apple as a company is making bad choices. Time will tell though.

 

[ApfelKuchen]

As much as I think this is pointing towards autonomous, electric vehicles in ride sharing, mass transit, and delivery applications, that does raise a few interesting issues.

Highly Visible - taxis, limos, jitneys, and buses are omnipresent in urban settings. The vehicles can be highly iconic (think the old Checker cabs, London's taxis and buses, Lincoln Towncars...) and are present in just about any film/video footage of urban scenes. That's potentially a lot of promotional value for the Apple brand as a whole. Apple could roll out its EV in relatively small quantities as a fleet vehicle and still gain great mind-share.

Time Between Charges - Fleet vehicles operate on nearly round-the-clock schedules, with minimal downtime. That's a problem for today's electric vehicles, which with the exception of the Teslas, have about an 85 mile range. When connected to a high-speed DC charging station, they can charge in 10-30 minutes. However, it takes time to reach a charging station. A computerized dispatch system can minimize that downtime, ensuring that a vehicle makes a drop-off reasonably near to a charging station, but it's still a challenge. Some of the cost efficiencies of having no drivers may be lost by requiring additional fleet vehicles to cover the charging downtime, but the fact that there is no driver-related downtime will still be a plus.

85 miles might be 3-4 hours of urban driving, or 2 hours if there's a trip to a suburban destination like an airport. That might mean 30-60 minutes of downtime every 2-4 hours. At the least, the range of the vehicles has to be expanded, and some sort of on-the-go charging system will be needed (periodic connection to overhead wires, perhaps). This is not likely an either/or proposition - both are likely to be needed. Wireless charging is far less efficient than DC charging, so it's not likely to be on the table.

Battery Efficiency - Now, one thing Apple is famous (or infamous) for is minimizing battery size while maximizing battery life. There is a major difference between doing that for an iPhone (where the optimizations are nearly all in software), and a vehicle, where the physics of mass come into play. Still, autonomous vehicles as a whole will have an advantage over today's EVs, in that acceleration/deceleration and cruising speed will be 100% computer controlled - that's certainly the kind of software-based optimization Apple excels at.

 

[kdarling]

Smart watches weren't selling. Apple took a different approach on a smart watch by marketing it to everyone (sports, business, fashion, health) and it's now the most successful smart watch that currently exists. But you're not happy with that?

Bad example, IMO.

Smart watches were beginning to sell. Like other blossoming markets they've entered, that's why Apple got interested.

However, in typical Apple fashion, they locked their system down to make it impossible for anyone else to integrate with an iPhone. So of course their own device with secret access, would be the best selling on their own ecosystem.

As for marketing something to everyone, I agree. When the Watch came out, I noted that Apple had made sure it had something to appeal to everyone. Of course, when other companies do that, it's calling "throwing everything against the wall to see what sticks". Nothing wrong with that, though. Smart move.

 

[wigby]

Remember after Steve was fired from Apple, they started dabbling into really weird niche products that had nothing to do with their core business and sales across the board began to tank due to lack of updates/innovation in the products that actually made money thus crippling the company revenue?
I look at the numbers for iPhones and Mac's going down year over year, stories like this one indicating more and more capital and resources being diverted from core product R&D into this "Apple Car," and I can't help but get a chilling sense of deja vu.

Remember when Steve was at Apple and he changed the name from Apple Computer to just Apple? They started moving away from their core years ago when they developed the iPod. Everyone complained about how that was not really a computer and dumb electronic accessory that Sony or Panasonic would make. Meanwhile the entire industry has shifted away from computers so if Apple only stuck to their core product, they would be sailing in a sinking ship and people would complain about that.

Apple goes where the future is. I love Mac OS X and their computers but the future is not there. Cars and VR and digital content are such tech driven industries that I don't see the difference between computers and those things. The only major shift Apple could do is stop making hardware and instead focus on delivery services and content creation. And even that would be welcomed by most.