I think it’s quite clear what the headwinds are, but I can summarise them.
It is a very niche market already crowded with competitors with a lot of experience who have been releasing products for years, at significantly more affordable price points than what the rumours suggest apple will do. Sure, apple might introduce some marginal improvements over then status quo. Will it justify a price five to six times higher? Doubtful. Not to mention the fact that the other companies already have established stores with hundreds of apps, games and experiences. Apple starts from zero. Sure, it might convince developers to develop, but it is not granted. It succeeds with the iPhone app store, not as much with the watch store (very few apps are available and in fact some big names removed their apps) or the Mac App Store.
The biggest problem though is that for most people this thing is a solution to a problem nobody has. Everybody (or most people) needed or wanted an iPod, a phone and an internet communicator. iPhone was a huge success because of it. People wanted these things and a product that combined them all was hence very appealing. Very few people have any interest in spending a lot of time with their head in an awkward mask. Even the few who find the experience appealing would probably refrain from doing it in public. A big difference with iPhone, that people have always been proud to use and show around.
Journey back to 2007, just before another "big reveal"...
It is a very niche market already crowded with competitors: phone
with a lot of experience: phone
who have been releasing products for years: phone
at significantly more affordable price points than what the rumours suggest apple will do: phone
Sure, apple might introduce some marginal improvements over then status quo: iPhone
Will it justify a price five to six times higher: phone
Doubtful: traditional pessimist, sometimes fear-of-change opinion ahead of big reveal of anything
Not to mention the fact that the other companies already have established stores with hundreds of apps, games and experiences: rumor is that this will be able to use up to all iPad apps from the start. I don't know the exact number, but I assume that's hundreds OF THOUSANDS if not millions of apps from the start.
Apple starts from zero: not per rumors viewed through a "half full" lens, and Apple would roll out at least a good mix of their own app creations specifically for this thing, as they have with EVERY new category product they've ever released. So I would bet all I have that ZERO apps is impossible. Care to take that bet?
Sure, it might convince developers to develop, but it is not granted. It succeeds with the iPhone app store, not as much with the watch store (very few apps are available and in fact some big names removed their apps) or the Mac App Store: good point. Even Apple can't know this one until it gets "out there."
The biggest problem though is that for most people this thing is a solution to a problem nobody has: many have posted problems & opportunities they have for which this "solution" has a good chance of addressing. Only the pessimists seem to ignore any such examples to maintain a laser focus on this concept that nobody can imagine anything that this could do to better their tech lives.
Everybody (or most people) needed or wanted an iPod, a phone and an internet communicator. iPhone was a huge success because of it: this crowd ridiculed iPod even on release day (refer back to the infamous thread), Apples first cut at an Apple-linked phone was one from Motorola that seemed to center around iTunes. Jobs demoed it to the crowd himself about 2 or so years before iPhone.
People wanted these things and a product that combined them all was hence very appealing: Goggles has potential to be all 3 things too
and a
ton of other things. A device that can fully fool eyes into seeing ANYTHING as if it is as real as reality is a device that has a nearly unlimited canvas of potential uses.
Very few people have any interest in spending a lot of time with their head in an awkward mask: (2007) very few people want to walk around with a big brick of breakable glass in their pocket with a potentially explosive lithium ion battery near their "precious."
Even the few who find the experience appealing would probably refrain from doing it in public: to be determined. People do all kinds of completely insane things in public. Try watching a channel like FailArmy for a while. I doubt
this will rank remotely as insane as some of the things people will do only in pursuit of attention. This thing likely has practical applications.
A big difference with iPhone, that people have always been proud to use and show around: I suspect anyone who spends whatever this will cost and concerned with what other people think, will want to show off that they happen to have Apples "latest & greatest" new kind of device. See thousands of threads on this site where owners of new Apple products will evangelize them to all others and/or defend them even when they have absolutely known faults. There will be 10 or 20 threads of people showing pictures of the
box when it arrives, unboxing videos, etc... as happens with EVERYTHING new and/or only slightly tweaked from Apple.
You might also recall how this crowd ridiculed phablet-sized phones as "abominations" while Apple clung to 3.5" and then 4" screens as "perfection." They were ridiculed in every possible way in hundreds of threads for YEARS... until... Apple rolled out their own phablets and then almost all such opinion seemed to evaporate almost overnight. I'm still watching for pants with bigger pockets and man purses (where are they? Did nobody buy the bigger "abomination" iPhones???)... and I cannot believe how all of those one-handed use hands must have grown that year to make the new phones usable.
I'm not specifically picking at you with this post: just pointing out that if one changes their lens or perspective, imagined negatives or positives can look very different. I could write a bunch of stuff to make this seem like the greatest invention in the history of the world. And I could write a bunch of stuff to rip it to shreds. While it is still vapor we can imagine it can do anything... or nothing... great things or terrible things. Through a half full vs. half empty lens... or completely full/overflowing or completely empty/not even a glass viewpoint... it only reflects how each of us choose to apply our "think different" imaginations. Some of us are extraordinarily pessimistic and others are similarly optimistic. Both find themselves at either extreme or somewhere in between the extremes driven by the very same vapor, rumors, speculation, imagination, hype, group opinion, etc.
In a few days, all of the haze, imagination, smoke, confusion, etc likely gets removed. I suspect opinions- good or bad- will dramatically moderate or swing once we know what it actually is, what it can do and how much it costs.
