Apple's Car Project Shifts Towards Autonomous Driving System Under Mansfield's Direction

[Bluestrike2]

Yes, and I was going to mention that very thing. So the question is whether (assuming you believe the rumors) Apple would design a car as a clean-sheet exercise, from the wheels up, or outsource many of the systems. Which sounds more like Apple to you? Either way this a is highly nontrivial exercise, but much more so if they are starting from scratch. I am also not convinced that it is necessarily easier to build an electric car than an ICE car. The batteries alone are a substantial issue and ICEs are very much off-the-shelf technology. Electric motor reliability has been an issue. Regenerative braking systems are relatively new technology. All of this before getting to manufacturing, let alone sales, delivery, and servicing. It's a massive lift, especially for a company that has never attempted anything of the kind before.

With a good portion of the parts Apple sources from their supply chain, their engineers have a lot of sway on how the parts are customized/modified from stock. Part of that's just economies of scale; along with the cost savings Apple manages to ferret out of their supply chain, the sheer size of their orders gives them a lot more influence. They source what they need to, customize as needed, and design from the ground-up what they must. For a car, I think we'll see an added emphasis on designing trim pieces and other items that are plainly visible to fit whatever aesthetic Apple goes for. Tesla, for comparison, used a lot more off-the-shelf parts in their interiors (read some quality complaints online, there are a few good, in-depth discussions I've seen about it in the past)

But managing the supply chain for any car is going to be different than with consumer electronics. Apple can still do it--their people have the background, education, and experience for managing supply-chains after all--but it'll involve different approaches and techniques. That's to be expected. But they're financially healthy and have the cash on hand (overseas, anyhow) to make some pretty significant supply chain commitments that'll give them a lot more flexibility than Tesla had when it started with the Model S, for instance.

And ICE vehicles are, by their nature, going to have a much more complex supply-chain than an electric vehicle. Electric vehicles have their own unique challenges, as you hit upon, but in this context it's more than balanced out by the ability to assign more of your engineering talent to those challenges. It's an incredibly tough industry to break into, obviously, but it's less tough for an electric vehicle. Relatively speaking, anyhow.

 

[sudo1996]

Whatever it is, it won't be as fun as my Ford Crown Victoria police cruiser.

 

[Benjamin Frost]

I don't see electric cars becoming mass market for decades.

At the moment, they are all but pointless, just toys for rich people who don't need practical cars. Charging stations in the UK recently raised charges to £6 an hour, making electricity more expensive than petrol.

There is no prospect of electric cars becoming mainstream for as long as petrol (gas) and diesel are abundant. In addition, the infrastructure required to provide a mass market would be hugely expensive, time-consuming and problematic. It's simply not feasible.

 

[shawnforever]

It is *by far* more lucrative for Apple to develop a "self driving car" option to CarPlay.

Apple doesn't care about doing things for the sake of making money; they want to make great products. And I can't see Apple being a part of a self-driving car experience that they don't completely control.

 

[jpn]

No. The supply chain for an electric car is far less complex and can be managed more easily with the capital capabilities that Apple has. We hear your argument a lot here, but you and many others fail to realize that electric car companies and combustion engine companies address the same markets but have vastly different business models.

We will see more successful electric car companies emerge, because the entry barrier to produce a competitive car has been lowered in the past 5 years.

if the article is correct, then apple does not agree with you.
[doublepost=1469745192][/doublepost]

I don't see electric cars becoming mass market for decades.

At the moment, they are all but pointless, just toys for rich people who don't need practical cars. Charging stations in the UK recently raised charges to £6 an hour, making electricity more expensive than petrol.

There is no prospect of electric cars becoming mainstream for as long as petrol (gas) and diesel are abundant. In addition, the infrastructure required to provide a mass market would be hugely expensive, time-consuming and problematic. It's simply not feasible.

hi benjamin
you probably are right.
but an interesting fact is that in japan there are more electric vehicle charging stations now (already) than there are petrol stations. amazing.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/10/japan-electric-car-charge-points-petrol-stations

 

[IJ Reilly]

With a good portion of the parts Apple sources from their supply chain, their engineers have a lot of sway on how the parts are customized/modified from stock. Part of that's just economies of scale; along with the cost savings Apple manages to ferret out of their supply chain, the sheer size of their orders gives them a lot more influence. They source what they need to, customize as needed, and design from the ground-up what they must. For a car, I think we'll see an added emphasis on designing trim pieces and other items that are plainly visible to fit whatever aesthetic Apple goes for. Tesla, for comparison, used a lot more off-the-shelf parts in their interiors (read some quality complaints online, there are a few good, in-depth discussions I've seen about it in the past)

But managing the supply chain for any car is going to be different than with consumer electronics. Apple can still do it--their people have the background, education, and experience for managing supply-chains after all--but it'll involve different approaches and techniques. That's to be expected. But they're financially healthy and have the cash on hand (overseas, anyhow) to make some pretty significant supply chain commitments that'll give them a lot more flexibility than Tesla had when it started with the Model S, for instance.

And ICE vehicles are, by their nature, going to have a much more complex supply-chain than an electric vehicle. Electric vehicles have their own unique challenges, as you hit upon, but in this context it's more than balanced out by the ability to assign more of your engineering talent to those challenges. It's an incredibly tough industry to break into, obviously, but it's less tough for an electric vehicle. Relatively speaking, anyhow.

We could debate all day about whether it's easier to design and built an ICE or electric car and not get anywhere, but the more important distinction isn't whether one of those two are relatively more difficult, but whether designing, manufacturing, distributing, and servicing any type of car isn't relatively more difficult (and far different) than anything Apple has attempted before.

I can't see Apple taking this plunge outside of a partnership with an experienced auto manufacturer. We have reason to believe Apple and BMW have talked about this very thing. They'd have some simpatico but part of their shared culture is a control freakiness that would probably make for a poor marriage. For sure Apple would have to buy into manufacturing expertise somewhere. If not in Germany, then China, Korea, or even India.

 

[SteveW928]

If true... HUGE mistake.

 

[stevet]

No. The supply chain for an electric car is far less complex and can be managed more easily with the capital capabilities that Apple has. We hear your argument a lot here, but you and many others fail to realize that electric car companies and combustion engine companies address the same markets but have vastly different business models.

We will see more successful electric car companies emerge, because the entry barrier to produce a competitive car has been lowered in the past 5 years.

There aren't any successful EV car companies right now, and you think new manufactures just pop up? It takes years to design, test, and manufacture a car. Not a 3 month design sprint.

 

[newdeal]

Apple doesn't want an automaker as a customer. Apple wants people who are willing to pay high margins, auto makers try to source a washer that costs a tenth of a cent less in order to help corporate profit...it just doesn't jive
[doublepost=1469750027][/doublepost]

I feel like too much is going on with the Apple Car. Apple should be focused on the core functions of a car, which is getting you from point A to B efficiently and relability. Once they have that, then work on autonomous driving.

It kind of reminds me of "smart" home gadgets. Crappy core functions and gimmicky "smart" features.

you can't compete with the big automakers on that. You need to have a killer feature which proper autonomous driving is. But god help us if the system is based on Apple maps for navigation

 

[shplock]

There aren't any successful EV car companies right now, and you think new manufactures just pop up? It takes years to design, test, and manufacture a car. Not a 3 month design sprint.

Err I think you'll find that Tesla IS a successful car company. Yes they may be burning though cash at the mount like an ageing rock star goes through young blondes however that is merely them putting cash back into the business to build up capacity and to also bud out the supercharger stations etc. This is smart of Tesla because while ICE makers are reluctantly releasing a few EVs that are merely compliance vehicles Tesla is building up it's business and more importantly it's charging system.
I however would like Apple to be successful with the Apple car(if indeed they are making one), though a part of me worries that Tim Cook has not got the ability and determination that Steve Jobs had. I am sure that Tim Cook is a clever and capable guy in many areas however Apple needs to stop worrying about shareholders and creating new products for new areas to wow them and instead simply focus on it's core products such as the iPhone and the Mac which is lagging behind competitors.
One thing though seems to be sure which is that any new car EV or ICE should not be autonomous until their safety rating is at least 99%. There are too many idiots on the roads today who think that just because they are able to drive that they can drive(and are good at it). So therefore any autonomous system that gets implemented widely needs to make things better not stay the same or get worse.
Tesla's Autopilot is technically a good system though it keeps getting abused by these idiots who think that they can go to sleep in the back seat of their car or watch a harry potter film. So until any company can figure a way to make a fully autonomous system that stops these idiots from fudging things up and causing accidents Apple(and others) should simply stick to old fashioned cars with old fashioned ideas such as a driver ACTUALLY driving the car and hopefully safely

 

[Glideslope]

Apple logo superimposed on a BMW steering wheel.

Not under Bob.

 

[randyj]

I am more interested in performance and driving the thing myself.
Driving for a lot of people is a pleasurable thing.
Too often you see kids in cars staring at iPads/watching DVDs on tvs mounted on the front seats.
They wouldn't have a clue where they are most of the time.

My kids can't use istuff in the car. They have to look out the window like I did.
Same with autonomous driving. I don't want to be reading or doing something else while driving, get somewhere and think how did I get here...
Things like adaptive cruise control etc where it brakes if the car in front brakes, but anything past that, I am not interested.
[doublepost=1469757861][/doublepost]

Apple logo superimposed on a BMW steering wheel.

Yes, and Apple hasn't stuck that many buttons on anything but a keyboard for years.
I love buttons and wish the iPhone had more of them.

I hope they don't go for touch input with everything in the car.
It is important to be able to feel buttons while you are watching the road.
eg I can operate things like cruise control and volume, change tracks etc from the wheel without looking.

Can I do that on a iPhone now? No way.

 

[ArtOfWarfare]

For a fully autonomous vehicle, yes. But given the prevalence of small backcountry roads, private roads, dirt and unmarked roads, parking in grass for concerts/events/etc. and all sorts of other categories that are hard to predict and develop for (though learning algorithms can and will adapt to them over time), it's unlikely that we'll see fully autonomous vehicles without the option of manual overrides for a while. The exception would be specialty vehicles (taxis, etc.) for urban-only usage and, at some point, vehicles marketed primarily to urban customers (think along the lines of Google's prototype vehicle).

Tesla's cars all learn how to drive themselves whether the autopilot is on or not. They're constantly comparing the decisions you make when it's in manual mode vs the decision it would make if it were in automatic mode.

From that, they can learn how to navigate unusual roads without the feature actually being turned on. The car learns how to handle the car, then uses its cellular connection to send the info to Tesla's data centers. Tesla engineers validate the info, maybe make changes in the algorithms as necessary. The new and improved data and algorithms get distributed to all of the cars (again, via that cellular connection).

 

[kab695]

Apple logo superimposed on a BMW steering wheel.

Actually, that's is the exact same as my Subaru. Same wheel and buttons. Dash in the background looks the same too.

 

[wigby]

Everyone jumping on the "Self-driving car" bandwagon seems to be underestimating the complexity of understanding and handling the infinite unpredictability of the real-world. Particularly since people's lives are at stake in a moving vehicle.

I wouldn't want one.

I guess it comes down to what do you trust more, a computer or a human driver. I trust a computer with my life every time on the road but I also have no experience to back up that trust. I do have 20 years of commuting experience that tells me humans are not just unpredictable but bad at reacting to unpredictability. Self driving vehicles might be a little dangerous at first but so we're human drivers at first. And when computer driven vehicles overtake the road, you will see accidents become a distant memory.

 

[44267547]

Why is it still being called "Apples secret car project"?

Well, it will continue to remain a secret if we even know an 'Apple Car' exists or ever debuts.

 

[Neodym]

Everyone jumping on the "Self-driving car" bandwagon seems to be underestimating the complexity of understanding and handling the infinite unpredictability of the real-world. Particularly since people's lives are at stake in a moving vehicle.

Could it be that you are underestimating the infinite options for human failure behind the wheel? Reaction time, proper acting under stress, tiredness, nightsightedness, age, speeding, disctraction from phone calls, text messages or the environment outside the car, being drunk, under drugs or simply unconcentrated - the list is seemingly endless.

Driving a car safely means to stay focussed 100% of the time. Most - if not all - drivers can't claim that (myself included). Under challenging situations (fog, rain, icy roads, heavy traffic etc.) I'd already expect a machine to (re)act better than the average human driver to critical situations. It eventually comes down to physics and that means calculating formulas, which machines can do better than humans for sure.

And in a couple of years an autonomous car will probably be a better driver than 80-90% of the average guy or girl out there.

Machines are not perfect for sure, but humans are neither. I do welcome the advent of autonomous cars.

 

[flyinmac]

if apple ever, ever, ever thought that it could actually build a car, i would finally give in, and agree with those who think that Tim should be fired.

partnering with an automotive group, or, given apple's huge cash pile, purchasing controlling interest in one, would be far less costly, and quicker to market, than trying to figure out an auto manufacturing supply chain.

sheer hubris.

different point: imagine what a million didi chuxing autonomously driven cars powered by apple's carOS in china would look like. wild.

Apple would probably repeat their pattern of having everything made in China.

Once the Chinese have all the design elements in their hands, they'll just produce and sell a knock-off version of the Apple Car for $500.

The ultra cheap version will be 99 cents, and will breakdown within a mile.

The $500 version will be more reliable and faster.

 

[pat500000]

i guess we are the crash dummies.

 

[mpainesyd]

Bob and Dan should get in contact with New Car Assessment Programs in the US, Europe, Japan, Australia, Korea and China. They are all working on safety performance tests for autonomous systems in cars.
http://www.globalncap.org/

 

[jpn]

Apple would probably repeat their pattern of having everything made in China.

Once the Chinese have all the design elements in their hands, they'll just produce and sell a knock-off version of the Apple Car for $500.

The ultra cheap version will be 99 cents, and will breakdown within a mile.

The $500 version will be more reliable and faster.

but what i really want to know is if along with the car i need to buy some kind of an adapter or not.

 

[HighDesert50]

While we debate the necessity of near perfect automation to deal with the vagaries of noncompliant pedestrians and imperfect roadways, the real question is whether Apple will sustain the mantra of thinner is better on every iteration or will succumb to the auto industry standard of bigger is better?

 

[flyinmac]

but what i really want to know is if along with the car i need to buy some kind of an adapter or not.

Of course you'll need an adapter. It will only accept Apple's iFuel connections.

The electric version will only accept charge from a 98.13 volt power source with a connection resembling a pitchfork. This adapter will essentially plug into your wall outlet and reduce your electrical voltage to 98.13 volts before passing the power to the pitchfork (iFork) connection on your car.

The gas version will accept regular unleaded gasoline. But fueling the car will require a nozzle adapter that adapts from the larger unleaded nozzle down to an Apple shaped nozzle that is half the size in diameter. Essentially an Apple shaped funnel. This funnel will be equipped with a chip that Apple will refuse to license for clones. Without this chip, the fuel tank will not accept fuel (diverting fuel into a separate reserve tank that only Apple can access - for a small fee of $5000).

See my former posts quoted below for some of my thoughts about the Apple Car since the idea was brought up back in the 2006-2008, and one I think from last year.

Keep in mind, my statements in the quotes referring to delicate iPods was during the era of the first version iPod Nanos that had a delicate glossy surface that showed permanent scratches the second you touched it. Most notable on the black version. Very nasty swirling scars in the surface after removing it from the box. I tried to return mine immediately after opening the box. Apple refused because it was now blemished. Crappy materials back then.

Well, you know they would make them like they do their iPods...

So, of course, before you even removed the car from it's packaging (yes, it would be wrapped to prevent damage to it's delicate finish before you purchased it), you would have to purchase the new Belkin iCar cover (shown below). Be sure to install within second of unwrapping your new iCar.

Naturally, you would have just enough of the iCar's window exposed so you could see where you were going. But, it would be vinyl covered to prevent scratching the delicate window material. So that your statement won't be missed, Belkin provides an Apple-Shaped transparent window cover for you to look through as you drive.

Whatever you do, don't touch or breath on the car before the protective cover is installed.

Revision 2 of the iCar will have a metallic paint finish. But, will still have delicate windows.

Revision 3 of the iCar will will also have the tougher painted surface. But, in addition to needing window protection, you'll have to be sure to cover the undercarriage because it will be a soft glossy metallic finish that will scuff the first time you move it an inch.

Best practice through all three revisions will be to install the Belkin iCar cover.

If you do decide that you would actually like to see what your new iCar looks like, you might opt for the iCar Invisible Shield (not shown). This will allow you to see your car. It will go on with a huge squeegee. And, resembles tough saran wrap. Be sure you get all the air bubbles out as you smooth it on there.

One benefit of the car covers, is that you can pick a different color every day of the week. Just buy the multi-packs of iCar neoprene covers (not pictured), and you can feel like you're driving a different car every day.

Please use caution when you are installing new iCar covers. The installation and removal of iCar covers does present the likely possibility of damaging your iCar's delicate surface.

For the ultimate in protection, you should install the iCar Invisible Shield first. Then, your Belkin or Neoprene iCar Covers. The Invisible Shield will protect your iCar while you change out your tougher external iCar covers.

Originally designed to hold an entire family, 8 years after its introduction, the Apple car now only permits anorexic single occupancy.

On the plus side, it's fragility has spawned a huge market of add-on covers that protect the car from being scratched when you touch it, or bent when you drive it. While people have traditionally considered opening the car doors and driving it to be normal usage, Apple showed us that it really is abnormal and voids the warranty if we attempt to do such tasks with it.

The most frustrating part has been the radio though. It only has one button, and if you don't put your hand in the right place, all you hear is static.

While we once considered larger cars more practical, we've come to realize that being able to fit 100 cars in 8 feet of space is essential and has reduced traffic congestion tremendously. The only problem is that sometimes operators fail to see the cars from certain angles, leading to greater collision numbers.

Apple attempted to curb this issue with automated navigation systems. Unfortunately 100 percent of Apple cars on the streets immediately drowned themselves in the nearest lake. Operators managed to escape unharmed, but Apple denied warranty repairs due to the water sensors being activated.

Yeah... I'm so tired of cars that dent. I can't wait for that erra to end. Looking forward to the days when cars just shatter to pieces and both drivers find themselves just sitting on the ground surrounded by tiny shards of glass.

Saturn thought dent resistant panels were a great idea. Until cars were driving around with huge holes where a small dent might have been.

Ford is on the right path with strong aluminum. No rust, still rigid.

Fiberglass, glass, carbon fiber, and plastics have already proven to be poor structural choices.

But it would still be funny to watch a car essentially disintegrate on impact. So hopefully Apple will go that route. We need the comic relief.

And, on the plus side, Apple getting into the car business will start a whole new market of car covers and car skins for increasing strength and protection from impacts.

Maybe someone will even make a waterproof case for when Apple Maps tries to turn your car into a boat.

 

[Mildredop]

Everyone jumping on the "Self-driving car" bandwagon seems to be underestimating the complexity of understanding and handling the infinite unpredictability of the real-world. Particularly since people's lives are at stake in a moving vehicle.

I wouldn't want one.

I'm afraid I really don't think a truly autonomous cat will exist in my lifetime.

I can see a world with autonomous trains, buses and trucks that follow predetermined and exclusive routes, but not cars.

There are just too many unknowns.

 

[Nevaborn]

I don't think the Apple Car will be any good at this rate. I want options. As someone who loves a spirited drive I want a performance machine that IS NOT automated. If I want that I would just get a train.