Yes I understand that. But there is NOTHING in there that is 3nm. It is 100% marketing BS. It's like me saying here's a quarter pound hamburger. It's better because it's a quarter pound now. Except that "quarter pound" is just the term I've redesignated to mean "frying on the griddle a hydrogenated plant based meat substitute that weighs 2 ounces."
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Apple's Huge 3nm Chip Orders for iPhone 15 Pro and M3 Macs Helping to Maintain TSMC's Fab Utilization Rates
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Could we see M3 before A17?
It'd explain what Apple is using these 3nm wafers for right now.Digitimes (unreliable) reports that 15" MBA is releasing in April/May. Mark Gurman thinks it's releasing in Summer.
Why M3 could be released in Summer at WWDC:
- Assuming that Apple is skipping A16 cores for the M series, then Apple would have had extra resources to create M3 using A17. This could explain why M3 using A17 can come out before the iPhone 15 Pro. In "normal years" (which we haven't had due to covid, supply chain issues, 3nm delay), I would assume that the base M always comes out 1-2 months after A series.
- At around April of each year, Apple should already be starting to mass produce the next A series that will be launched in September. So the A17 design has long been finished and the building blocks were long ready for M3 to consume.
- Apple would probably like to launch a new Mac computer with a new M series. Launching M3 with MBA 15" would garner a lot of interest.
- If 15" MBA uses M2 in May, and then a few months later, all the other laptops get M3, it'd make the 15" MBA look pretty bad. Apple wouldn't want to do this because the 15" laptop market is by far, the biggest, which means the 15" MBA will likely become its top seller.
- Mark Gurman did report that M2 will be a shortlived generation, which I agree based on the timing of 3nm mass production, A17, and M3. Even so, at WWDC 2023, it would be one year after M2 already.
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I can’t wait to experience the worlds most advanced chip ever!🔥
Even if they got the RAM for free they’d still charge $100 per GB. And at this rate 8GB will be standard well into 2030.
I skipped the 14 (and 13) because I want to completely move to USB-C when the 15 drops. My Mac's and iPad Pro are all USB-C. Hoping to get a new set of Air Pods with USB-C as well.
USB-C and ridiculous battery life will have me buy my first currently gen iPhone in years. Under display touchID would be icing on the cake. Best would be if it could be connected to a display like the iPad can and used with iPad OS that way also
Errr. the quote from the first post is this.
Emphasis added.
Utilization is not even 50% at the moment and will only climb to about 50% by the end of the month. Apple isn't taking all of the capacity ; most of it is a lying fallow for the foreseeable future.
You're trying to repeat the previous story from Digitimes that Apple had bought up all the capacity. What this story does is outline that previous story is mostly hooey.
Apple may be buying practically all of the N3 wafers being produced, but that doesn't necessarily mean that they bought up all of the capacity. Those are two different things.
If you want a dream, dream that Apple limited its markup for memory upgrades to 100%...I know. But a man can dream
Apple supplier TSMC is making strides to improve its production capacity for chips based on its cutting-edge 3-nanometer process technology, according to industry sources, which is expected to debut in this year's iPhone 15 Pro and upcoming MacBook models.
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DigiTimes reports that TSMC's 5nm fabrication capacity began to loosen in November 2022 as a result of reduced orders from Apple, amongst other partners, with orders for iPhone chips alone having been slashed by 30%. However, the Taiwanese manufacturer has apparently been able to keep its utilization rate at 70% or higher thanks to Apple's thirst for 3nm:
Chuckle. .... Digitimes spits out almost anything and gets front page coverage ...
" ... According to a paywalled DigiTimes report, Apple has procured 100% of the initial N3 supply, which is said to have a high yield, despite the higher costs involved and the decline in the foundry's utilization rate in the first half of 2023. Mass production of TSMC's 3nm process began in late December, and the foundry has scaled up process capacity at a gradual pace with monthly output set to reach 45,000 wafers in March, according to the report's sources. ..."
A little over a week ago the spin was that Digitmes had bought every possible 3N wafer in TSMC's inventory . Now the factory run rate is even higher and the capacity is at sub 50%. Which means there are lots of wafers available. The only exclusivity is Apple is only one paying in large numbers. Not that they are blocking folks from getting any.
What is running now is smaller than iPhone Pro rates. Much smaller.
Most of this Digitimes story primarily goes to showing that their previous story was not particularly accurate. That doesn't say much about how this one will hold up over time.
Especially the base M2 which was largely playing with more clock speed and thus higher wattage on the same node as M1. I'm really excited for 3nm and their next gen ray tracing accelerating GPU coming at the same time, on M3 and A17.
The memory in the m1, m2 and m3 is all on-chip. It is not a separate module you can buy from a 3rd party.
Apple doesn’t make the memory modules. Yes they are on-chip, but for example on M1 Apple uses SK hynix LPDDR4X memory chips. They are not on the silicon layer - they are on the package.
In other words: Apple buys them from a 3rd party and puts them on their chip package.
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The quote from Digitimes mentions that currently the utilization rate for the N3 isn't even at 50%. There is no way they are doing 30M chips in March. The capacity is about half empty and only gets to half empty by the end the month.
Also not very likely getting 600 usable chips out of the wafer either. Might get low-mid 500's out of something as small as an A-series, but the M3 is likely substantially bigger ( drop off in units to mid 400 range , or lower). Any Pro/Max sized die is even bigger drops in volume per wafer. ( both bigger sizes and drops in yield percentages. )
About 25K wafers per month is indicative of something not solely iPhone. Not solely plain M3 either.
Digitimes numbers about max N3 wafer capacity are flakey at best. A little over a week ago they pegged it at 45K . now it is 50K (and the capacity running at 50%. So why would they be cranking from 45K to 50K when only running less than 30K. ???? Or these max wafer runs numbers are extremely soft and hand wavy. )
Apple doesn't particularly need more than 250-30K/Waf/mo for iPhone Pro + Mac this time of year and if they are the only buyers there isn't much of a point.
I’m pretty uneducated on wafer production, so pardon my ignorance:
Say Apple was releasing in spring/summer 2023:
M3 MacBook Air 13/15”
M3 MacBook Pro 13”
M3 iMac 24”
M3 iPads
M3-based VR headset
And then in fall 2023:
A17 iPhone
M3 Pro/Max MacBook Pro’s
M3 Ultra/Extreme Mac Pro
More M3 iPads
To me that sounds like a LOT of M3-based chips that are needed. More than any other Apple Silicon year. Could they just be gearing up for a huge rollout of chips this year?
The village of Å in Northern Norway.
Å, Moskenes - Wikipedia
(there are about six of them in Norway)
While TSMC and Apple are partnering on one level, they are now bargaining on another level to get Apple to use more of that capacity. We know Apple keeps future plans hidden, but this article is exposing information about TSMC. Apple could slap an M3 into more stuff or sell M3 devices more cheaply, easily using that capacity - but only if the price is right. TSMC on the other hand, has incredibly high fixed costs and needs (from an accounting perspective) to absorb those costs over as many wafers as possible. TSMC is probably in a situation where it makes sense to sell additional wafers to Apple at a short term loss, as it's a better long-term financial decision.
I wouldn't doubt Apple is leaking this information, because it looks like they have much of this power and want to know how low TSMC can go.
I wouldn't doubt Apple is leaking this information, because it looks like they have much of this power and want to know how low TSMC can go.
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