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BEST CASE Scenario (IMO)
- 12GB RAM, 256GB SSD Base.
- almost 13-inch, 60Hz.
- new design. smaller than the air, thinner and lighter.
- still aluminum chassis.
- starting 599USDs
- (I'm really hoping for a replaceable SSD slot. it is exceedingly unlikely, but the small possibility lies in the fact that it would save apple a lot of cost having to manufacture multiple motherboard models)

WORST CASE Scenario (IMO)
- 8GB RAM, 128GB SSD Base.
- closer to 12-inch
- plastic composite.
- starting 699USDs

I think the likely case would be $699 for your best case scenario. It will be the same price as iPad Air 256GB, and swapping M3, Touch Screen, Better LCD, FaceTime Camera, Back Camera, to A18 Pro ( just call it M5e FFS ), extra 4GB Memory, No Camera, worse webcam, non Hi Res Liquid Retina LCD, ( iPad Display has higher PPI ), keyboard and trackpad. The BOM Cost of swapping these components add up pretty well as well. And has been for quite some time which is why I never understand Apple didn't ship the low cost Mac a lot earlier.

This leaves enough space for the $999 M5 MacBook Air and continue to sell the M4 MacBook Air at $899.
 
I don't know what is considered as "macOS". When I click on (!) only this comes up:

View attachment 2606735

And then there is also much "System Data":

View attachment 2606738

I'll see your 40GB and raise it.

macosstorage.jpg
 
They made it for 18 more months after the M2,

The difference is that the M2 Air was made to replace the M1 Air but the script was then changed to it pushing the M1 down.

This new A18/A19 based MacBook is designed to live below the Air from day one and wether the Air is at M6 or M9 by the time it gets discontinued or upgraded is of little relevance.

Specs of the A18 will be good for years (assuming they make it at least 12GB), SW support is a decision disconnected from technology reasons so it all comes down to the numbers not just for this device but also for how much Apple wants it to allow to cannibalize the Air.

So the original argument that Apple would HAVE TO upgrade it the A19 within 18 months is nonsense.
Doesn't mean they won't do it, doesn't mean that starting with the A19 might be the smarter option, just means that A18 is possible and might be deemed good enough for much longer.
 
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Apple has been developing a more affordable version of the MacBook, and it's rumored to be launching in under two weeks. This is going to be one of Apple.....

Typing this on a MacBook 5.1 Mid 2008 (15.7.4 OCLP) ; daily MacBook is a MacBook Pro 2012 ...... if kind wonderful people could figure out their need vs want ; we wouldn't need 75% of these new niche products .... it doesn't matter how much cheaper - its still money and sadly/unfortunately will be destined to also land on the path electronic waste sooner. With best wishes !
 
They made it for 18 more months after the M2, mostly to offer at a discount. And I guess it didn’t sell well so Walmart and some third party resellers got a great deal on millions of them.

Which isn’t a business model Apple would want to repeat.

And they had to make an M2 in the mean time.

I wouldn’t put it past Apple to use an old chip, but the A19 makes more sense long term, especially if the A18 is stuck at 8GB. Does anyone know if the A18 can be equipped with 12GB?
I don't think Apple will use the latest A19 chip for it's MacBook which would be the cheapest model, the entry product. 8GB was still sold with M3 chip MacBooks (2023 MBP, 2024MBA). So it must be supported for more years to come. A19 with 12GB could come with the 2d gen of the cheap MacBook. And I am sure the MacBook will be located one level below the MBA. You don't get anything for "free" from apple.
 
I would imagine these MacBooks will be targeted and people with a use case similar to mine - basic browsing, maybe some Office work etc. My M1 8GB Air is still flying, so I personally don't think 8GB would cripple this thing as much as some people think...
agreed. for general light use - documents, the web, watching youtube, spreadsheets, emails, etc, my m7 (2016) with 8GB doesn't even reach 'yellow' memory pressure often.

but if a person is medium to high intensity user, then the SSD will do the memory swap constantly and the SSD won't last many years.
 
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I would imagine these MacBooks will be targeted and people with a use case similar to mine - basic browsing, maybe some Office work etc. My M1 8GB Air is still flying, so I personally don't think 8GB would cripple this thing as much as some people think...
Your Air might suit your needs, but selling a new Mac in 2026 with 8GB of RAM is a crime.
 
I would imagine these MacBooks will be targeted and people with a use case similar to mine - basic browsing, maybe some Office work etc. My M1 8GB Air is still flying, so I personally don't think 8GB would cripple this thing as much as some people think...
These will be marketed to students and kids and they do everything like making videos, recording music, coding, using AI, etc.
 
I think while the "based" low-cost MacBook will have 8 GB of RAM, upgraded models may have as much as 16 GB of RAM. And will have storage options of 256 GB and maybe 512 GB.
 
This is a slightly modified version of one of my posts from one of the 27 other low cost MacBook threads, because nothing in the past week has changed my analysis. Hope that’s OK.

—————-

In my view, people are completely misjudging the pricing of this new base MacBook because they are misjudging the reason for it existing in the first place. It's not a rebirth of the super thin and small 12" MacBook. It is not the re-used M1 chassis with an iPhone chip to save costs. It is not a $599 Chromebook killer with cut down specs to hit that super low price point. No, the new entry level A18 MacBook is all-new device designed to do two things, and two things only:

1. Lower the entry-level retail price for a Mac laptop from $999 to $799.

2. Allow the MacBook Air lowest configuration price TO GO UP to $1199.

Even with RAM prices rising, I don't believe that Apple will ever release another Mac with only 8GB of RAM. Apple Intelligence is simply too important to both their long-term tech strategy and their short-term Wall Street messaging. Every Mac has to be marketable as "the best computer for AI". And Apple's pricing tiers for laptops are very well thought out, always leading the buyer up the chain in $200 increments.

So this new MacBook can only start at $799 with 16GB of RAM and a 256GB drive. That means a version with a 512GB drive has to cost $999. Apple won't let pricing overlap with the MacBook Air line, so Apple's easy way out is to simply no longer offer the $999 MacBook Air with only 256GB of storage. Anyone who can live with that small a drive can also live with a smaller screen and an A18 chip. The MacBook Air now starts at $1199 with 16GB of RAM and a 512GB drive. This is NOT a price increase, it's the same model with the same specs and price as before.

All of this assumes the same day, side-by-side launch of the new A18 MacBook with the spec-bumped M5 MacBook Airs. It's the perfect time to align the pricing tiers to accommodate BOTH the lowering of the laptop entry price AND effectively moving the MacBook Air upmarket, despite no real increase in cost. Overall it looks like this:

12.9” A18 Pro MacBook 16/256 $799
12.9” A18 Pro MacBook 16/512 $999
13.6” M5 MacBook Air 16/512 $1199
 
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I think while the "based" low-cost MacBook will have 8 GB of RAM, upgraded models may have as much as 16 GB of RAM. And will have storage options of 256 GB and maybe 512 GB.
There is no way to offer the new MacBook with both 8GB and 16GB RAM options AND 256GB and 512GB storage options without overlapping the MacBook Air line. See my above post.
 
There is no way to offer the new MacBook with both 8GB and 16GB RAM options AND 256GB and 512GB storage options without overlapping the MacBook Air line. See my above post.
Apple may increase the price of the new M5 MBA though by adding Promotion or 90 hz (there have been articles about it on MR), in line with the iPhone 17. £100 increase would not really delve into base MBP territory.
 
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They don’t need to increase the price of the M5 MBAs, just stop offering the $999 16/256 configuration.

And there is zero indication that new screen tech or other features are coming to the M5 MBA. It’s just a chip bump, which makes it the perfect time to adopt the pricing tiers I describe above which allow the new A18 MacBook to take over the entry level at the lower $799 price point while still preserving 16GB of RAM.
 
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So this new MacBook can only start at $799 with 16GB of RAM and a 256GB drive.

12.9” A18 Pro MacBook 16/256 $799
12.9” A18 Pro MacBook 16/512 $999
13.6” M5 MacBook Air 16/512 $1199
A18 pro came with 8GB RAM only. When did Apple increase the RAM of a SOC year (s) later? The iPad 2025 A16 came with 6GB. They didn't increase the RAM of the A16.
I think it will be less than 12.9". The Macbook could be sold as "ultraportable" device. The value would be portability. If you would need more power: Buy the bigger and heavier MBA .
 
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