Apple's Macworld Exit Due to Politics Not Health Issues?

[Unspeaked]

I don't think anyone's posted this already, but I think it sums things up about as well as I've seen anyone do so far:

Time for Apple Fans to Freak Out

Posted Dec 17, 2008 10:36am EST by Henry Blodget

From Silicon Alley Insider:

Apple bull Gene Munster says he was "shocked" to hear that Steve Jobs won't be giving the Macworld keynote in three weeks. He wasn't the only one.

Let's walk through some possible reasons for this decision:

• Apple is just phasing out trade shows. This is a statement of fact, but it is almost certainly not the reason Steve won't be giving the keynote. If this is Apple's last Macworld, which it appears to be, why on earth wouldn't Steve give the final speech? It's called the "Stevenote," for goodness sake. And Apple has known for a while that it is moving away from tradeshows: It didn't have to wait until the last minute.

• Apple wants to let other executives share the limelight. A good idea, but not this way. If some bonehead at Apple insisted that Steve begin sharing the limelight by suddenly announcing three weeks before Macworld that he won't be giving a speech his fans wait all year for, then they should have announced this months ago.

• Steve just wants to pop out of a cake or something and stun his adoring fans. Possible. Also unlikely. This decision just seems too dumb to have been made by Apple. Apple obviously knows that this news will trigger a storm of speculation that Apple will likely spend the next several weeks dealing with. Would the company do that to itself just for a moment of surprise?

• Apple, Steve, and Macworld are having some sort of business dispute. This is possible. It's also the only business reason that makes sense. Given the damage Steve's non-appearance will do to the conference's reputation, Apple and Steve would have had to have been angry at — or in negotiation with — the conference organizers to withhold the announcement so long (thus the "dispute"). But we imagine that Macworld would do absolutely anything to keep Steve as the keynote speaker, so this explanation seems unlikely.

• Apple expected to have an exciting product or two to announce, but it has now realized that they won't be ready. This one makes sense. It explains the late cancellation. It also explains why Steve might drop out: Why would he want his last Macworld keynote to be a dud?

• Steve is sick. At this late date, given Steve's history, we regret to say that this also seems plausible.

 

[BenRoethig]

Or a combination of reasons that Blodget lists above.

 

[robbyx]

Didn't NeXT sink pretty quickly afterwards?

NeXT was always in trouble. It had nothing to do with NeXTWORLD. Actually, after the demise of NeXTWORLD, NeXT transitioned to Intel, SPARC, and PA-RISC, and, ultimately, sold to Apple for an undisclosed sum (estimated at over 500 million, considering Apple bailed out their 200+ million long-term debt to Canon, for starters). I wouldn't call that sinking!

 

[robbyx]

In a way, Steve Jobs IS Apple. He's made himself so much of an icon, when he leaves, I have serious doubts how well Apple will do. I just have a bad feeling that Apple will fall into obscurity after Steve leaves.

Ridiculous!

They own the portable music player market. Mac sales are on the rise and have been for several years. The iPhone is a phenomenon. They have well-established retail stores from coast to coast. And they are one of the most recognized and respected brands in the world. To suggest that, without Steve, they will fall into obscurity is just absurd.

Of course, if anything happens to him, the stock will take a huge hit and people will be nervous for a little while. But nothing changes the fact that Apple offers a superior product. They will offer it the day before Steve leaves, dies, whatever, and they will offer it the day after. Nothing changes.

 

[IJ Reilly]

• Apple, Steve, and Macworld are having some sort of business dispute. This is possible. It's also the only business reason that makes sense. Given the damage Steve's non-appearance will do to the conference's reputation, Apple and Steve would have had to have been angry at — or in negotiation with — the conference organizers to withhold the announcement so long (thus the "dispute"). But we imagine that Macworld would do absolutely anything to keep Steve as the keynote speaker, so this explanation seems unlikely.

I was totally within this one until the last sentence (I'd better be, since this has been my main theory all along). No company can do "absolutely anything" for anyone. IDG was unable to do what it needed to keep Apple at the East Coast expo, so whatever Apple was demanding then, it wasn't possible for them to accommodate. Publicly, this was keeping the show in New York, but I suspect other areas of dispute not made public. I also suspect that the relationship between IDG and Apple can't have been great after that very public falling-out, one that had to hurt IDG far more than it hurt Apple.

 

[robbyx]

Its called - Overcharging

MacWorld and all these shows have raped the vendors for years and its finally catching up. the internet can do a better job of getting the word out and shows like this are going to all go away sooner or later. The Unions tight grip on prices is hurting everyone.

Very good point! I remember when I had a small booth at NeXTWORLD and we couldn't do ANYTHING without the blessing (or, in most cases, assistance) of the union employees. It was absurd.

 

[robbyx]

But it still makes me said. Guess it's just WWDC and CES for me from now on.

Have we all forgotten about MacWorld Boston/NYC? Anyone remember that show? Apple bailed, the show finally died...and Apple launched WWDC (on their own terms) in its place. This is no different.

 

[robbyx]

The switch to Intel eroded Apple completely.

Short term gains vs. long time loss.

Yeah, sure, faster processors, dramatically increased performance, lower R&D costs, and better hardware "eroded" Apple. Um, what are you smoking?

 

[hiimamac]

One has to wonder - being a long time person in tech, I was one of the few stating Apple would switch chips, every lifer, fan boz, said I was nuts.

Now we are seeing flat sales while there is continued growth, on another hand, you have a Macbook that many complained about, lack of firewire, and we have to ask, or ponder if Apple will release a different version that contains FIREWIRE as well as a mini that also has firewire and so what if the PRO can use it (the intent was to keep PROS to buying MBPro's only) and with the slip of sales on desktops (PRETTY SIGNIFICANT THIS QUARTER, it fell sharply), with the PRO being left in the dark while Apple went after consumers with iPods, iMacs, iPhones, if apple finally gets it and releases more competitive machines.

I will go on record that if MSFT starts making headway with new Windows OS, if Apple will start releasing the OS for certain manufactures with limited tech support.

Ironically, it wouldn't hurt sales that much as people who would buy the OS are the die hard PC users who want to dabble in Mac OS and wouldn't buy a mac anyway, in MHO, I think Apple would do real well to do this.

I also think if you look at the last key note, Steve was indeed paranoid in that he though people were going to steal the UNIBODY and have never seen him like that. I wish him well and while some of us get frustrated when he does things like take FIREWIRE out of a machine that could otherwise be a great backup, not to mention thousands upon thousands of musicians, no one would want to see him sick and I pray and hope he gets well soon.

If this is what the problem is.

Get well Steve, get well.

 

[airamerica]

Here's a thought - Apple have committed to a Keynote and are contractually obliged to fulfill this agreement. However, the speaker could be anyone from Apple, including the Janitor from Infinite Loop!

Schiller steps in and keeps the lawyers from making a fuss... He goes through an unspectacular Keynote, giving nothing away and just introduces a few insignificant updates and a review of the past year, maybe some new software.

Then, 24hrs later invites are sent out to an Apple 'event' 10 days later:

1. This puts Steve back in the spotlight.

2. Significant new product/s are launched - Netbook, new iPhone Nano etc.

3. Apple take the spotlight away from Macworld and this format of product launching.

4. Apple keep to their traditional New Year launch schedule and adopt a quarterly 'event' style update from then on.

As a long term PR planner, I'd be advising my clients to take this course of action. In-fact, we've adopted this strategy in the UK with some customers.

It's easy to look for the negatives but if you consider Apple's and Steve's history, this is just the kind of stunt they could carry out.

 

[DMann]

Its called - Overcharging

MacWorld and all these shows have raped the vendors for years and its finally catching up. the internet can do a better job of getting the word out and shows like this are going to all go away sooner or later. The Unions tight grip on prices is hurting everyone.

All of this resonates with Steve pulling out of their East coast show in '04. IDG claims they need to cover expenses, and doesn't give Steve, the main attraction of the event, the concessions he asks for. A stalemate ensues, and continues until finally Steve says, "Who needs 'em anyway?" Since it was too late to cancel without forfeiting the down payment, Steve withdrew himself, knowing that this would make his dissatisfaction clear. IDG needed to realize who was doing who a favor here, and perhaps they realize this a little bit better now.

 

[IJ Reilly]

All of this resonates with Steve pulling out of their East coast show in '04. IDG claims they need to cover expenses, and doesn't give Steve, the main attraction of the event, the concessions he asks for. A stalemate ensues, and continues until finally Steve says, "Who needs 'em anyway?" Since it was too late to cancel without forfeiting the down payment, Steve withdrew himself, knowing that this would make his dissatisfaction clear. IDG needed to realize who was doing who a favor here, and perhaps they realize this a little bit better now.

IDG rents the hall from the City of San Francisco. Presumably IDG then determines how much they have to charge the exhibitors for their floor space to make a profit from running the show.

 

[fleshman03]

Here's a thought - Apple have committed to a Keynote and are contractually obliged to fulfill this agreement. However, the speaker could be anyone from Apple, including the Janitor from Infinite Loop!

Schiller steps in and keeps the lawyers from making a fuss... He goes through an unspectacular Keynote, giving nothing away and just introduces a few insignificant updates and a review of the past year, maybe some new software.

Then, 24hrs later invites are sent out to an Apple 'event' 10 days later:

1. This puts Steve back in the spotlight.

2. Significant new product/s are launched - Netbook, new iPhone Nano etc.

3. Apple take the spotlight away from Macworld and this format of product launching.

4. Apple keep to their traditional New Year launch schedule and adopt a quarterly 'event' style update from then on.

As a long term PR planner, I'd be advising my clients to take this course of action. In-fact, we've adopted this strategy in the UK with some customers.

It's easy to look for the negatives but if you consider Apple's and Steve's history, this is just the kind of stunt they could carry out.

I wish this is the case. I just have my reservations. I really hope your right though.

 

[DMann]

Here's a thought - Apple have committed to a Keynote and are contractually obliged to fulfill this agreement. However, the speaker could be anyone from Apple, including the Janitor from Infinite Loop!

Schiller steps in and keeps the lawyers from making a fuss... He goes through an unspectacular Keynote, giving nothing away and just introduces a few insignificant updates and a review of the past year, maybe some new software.

Then, 24hrs later invites are sent out to an Apple 'event' 10 days later:

1. This puts Steve back in the spotlight.

2. Significant new product/s are launched - Netbook, new iPhone Nano etc.

3. Apple take the spotlight away from Macworld and this format of product launching.

4. Apple keep to their traditional New Year launch schedule and adopt a quarterly 'event' style update from then on.

As a long term PR planner, I'd be advising my clients to take this course of action. In-fact, we've adopted this strategy in the UK with some customers.

It's easy to look for the negatives but if you consider Apple's and Steve's history, this is just the kind of stunt they could carry out.

Not an unlikely scenario, coming from Apple.

 

[saltyzoo]

I for one have never found Jobs to be that interesting of a person, so I don't really care if he does another keynote or not.

If he is responsible for the direction of the last year, I hope he retires in good health soon and spends the rest of a long life relaxing on the beach with his family and friends.

If he is not responsible for the direction of Apple in the last year, I hope he turns the ship again to point it in the right direction so we can not only get products with bling, but also products that actually do something useful once again. The recent trend of putting out "fancy toys" at the expense of real useful tools has me very disappointed in Apple.

 

[robbyx]

The recent trend of putting out "fancy toys" at the expense of real useful tools has me very disappointed in Apple.

No offense, but are you nuts? What on earth are you talking about? The useless iPhone? The even more worthless iPod Touch? The absolutely wretched MacBook line? Seriously, what kind of products did Apple make in the past that were SOOOOOO awesome as opposed to what's found in their current product line? Perhaps you miss the days of the Pippin and late night Apple infomercials?

Color me baffled.

 

[markintosh]

Totally Political

Jobs/Ive 2012 for President!

 

[saltyzoo]

No offense, but are you nuts? What on earth are you talking about? The useless iPhone? The even more worthless iPod Touch? The absolutely wretched MacBook line? Seriously, what kind of products did Apple make in the past that were SOOOOOO awesome as opposed to what's found in their current product line? Perhaps you miss the days of the Pippin and late night Apple infomercials?

Color me baffled.

I am a new convert to Apple computers. But ever since I converted, most of the reasons I converted have been slowly dwindling away.

The iPhone is pretty cool. But if you think there aren't other offerings out there that compete you are deluding yourself. I own one and I'm not giving it up. But, until it has the ability to copy and paste it remains largely a "toy" and "bling". I'd love to be able to use it as a real computer, but when I have a 10 character password of random characters that I can't save or in any way view when I switch to my terminal program or browser, then I need a pad and paper to use my iPhone. That makes it a toy. Sorry. And all for want of such a simple thing too.

And the new macBooks? Name one new feature that isn't bling. The multi-touch pad is a nice toy. It's missing several solid, real, useful options the old one had. Ports of various flavor, a real DVI connector, an actual optical drive or wired network port. They have no major standards upgrades (like BluRay support or example). Glossy only screen option (Sorry, I will never own another one). Aluminum block case? Bling. 1 billionth of an inch thick? Bling.

I am not happy about these things. I have nothing against toys or bling. I love the iPhone for it's "toy" features. No doubt about it. But I'm also not deluding myself into ignoring the direction things are going.

 

[Unspeaked]

Here's a thought - Apple have committed to a Keynote and are contractually obliged to fulfill this agreement. However, the speaker could be anyone from Apple, including the Janitor from Infinite Loop!

Schiller steps in and keeps the lawyers from making a fuss... He goes through an unspectacular Keynote, giving nothing away and just introduces a few insignificant updates and a review of the past year, maybe some new software.

Then, 24hrs later invites are sent out to an Apple 'event' 10 days later:

1. This puts Steve back in the spotlight.

2. Significant new product/s are launched - Netbook, new iPhone Nano etc.

3. Apple take the spotlight away from Macworld and this format of product launching.

4. Apple keep to their traditional New Year launch schedule and adopt a quarterly 'event' style update from then on.

As a long term PR planner, I'd be advising my clients to take this course of action. In-fact, we've adopted this strategy in the UK with some customers.

It's easy to look for the negatives but if you consider Apple's and Steve's history, this is just the kind of stunt they could carry out.

You're almost describing what Apple did when they introduced the PowerMac G5s and totally screwed over IDG.

 

[IJ Reilly]

You're almost describing what Apple did when they introduced the PowerMac G5s and totally screwed over IDG.

I can't feel too sorry for IDG. They built a huge expo event around one company. They had to know that once the one company decides that the show no longer serves their interests, that the show is history. I think they have to count themselves as lucky for being able to run it for so many years with Apple's blessings and participation.

 

[BenRoethig]

Jobs/Ive 2012 for President!

Ive's British.

 

[MacTraveller]

Ive's British.

Maybe they will run for the Presidency of the United Empire of America and Lesser Britain.

 

[robbyx]

I am a new convert to Apple computers. But ever since I converted, most of the reasons I converted have been slowly dwindling away.

Out of curiosity, why did you convert? What reasons are "dwindling" away?

The iPhone is pretty cool. But if you think there aren't other offerings out there that compete you are deluding yourself. I own one and I'm not giving it up. But, until it has the ability to copy and paste it remains largely a "toy" and "bling". I'd love to be able to use it as a real computer, but when I have a 10 character password of random characters that I can't save or in any way view when I switch to my terminal program or browser, then I need a pad and paper to use my iPhone. That makes it a toy. Sorry. And all for want of such a simple thing too.

I don't think anything competes with iPhone in terms of overall EXPERIENCE. Sure, there are many great products out there, but how many integrate with one's computer (well, certainly one's Mac) as well as the iPhone? How many are as downright simple and easy to learn and use? I use my iPhone all day long. It's an awesome communication device. It does exactly what I want and doesn't bother me with a bunch of "features" I care nothing for in the first place. The App Store is fantastic. I love the simple and effortless process of buying and updating apps. Again, nothing compares.

Yes, copy and paste would be nice. Sure. But is it a deal breaker? Not by a mile, in my book. I don't want to use my iPhone as a full-fledged laptop replacement (although it's certainly possible). In my mind, the iPhone is all about communication, be it text, voice, email, etc. I have no interest in editing Word files on that tiny screen, for example, but composing a quick email? Absolutely! And for such tasks, I think the iPhone excels.

As an aside, you may want to check out the excellent 1Password application. It's a better Keychain and features an iPhone client that can autofill your login and password info on the phone. It syncs with the desktop 1Password program too. Very nice!

And the new macBooks? Name one new feature that isn't bling. The multi-touch pad is a nice toy. It's missing several solid, real, useful options the old one had. Ports of various flavor, a real DVI connector, an actual optical drive or wired network port. They have no major standards upgrades (like BluRay support or example). Glossy only screen option (Sorry, I will never own another one). Aluminum block case? Bling. 1 billionth of an inch thick? Bling.

Faster chips, better video hardware, (apparent) hardware acceleration for H.264 video, a very nice, new, elegant form factor. Etc.

Ok, so they dropped FireWire from the MacBook. Get over it. FireWire is dead, sorry to say. If you absolutely NEED FireWire, get a MacBook Pro. Last time I checked, every computer in the MacBook line, save the Air, still offered an optical drive and wired network connection. Of course they dropped these features from the Air. That's the whole point of the computer!

The multitouch trackpad is also very nice. Spend some time with it. Gestures are a welcome UI improvement. Don't simply dismiss it as "bling" because you don't get it.

The screen...well, that's a matter of preference. I personally like the glossy screen. Others don't. I get that. Unfortunately, when you buy Apple, sometimes you simply must accept the choices made by the mothership - and move on.

As for BlueRay, well, there are third party drives available. Apple doesn't want to support it (yet) for some reason. Jobs repeatedly points to BlueRay licensing issues as the problem. Sony is notorious for being an impossible, controlling nightmare. You think Apple is bad? Ha. They have NOTHING on Sony. Personally, I don't give a crap about BlueRay. I refuse to buy a player and I couldn't care less if Apple adds it or not. I'm perfectly satisfied with the picture quality of regular DVDs on my HD TV. BlueRay looks awesome, sure. But I'll never invest in any proprietary technology from Sony.

Furthermore, I think Apple is right about the future of media distribution. Physical media is a pain. It's cumbersome, easily lost or damaged, and contributes more garbage to our landfills, never mind all the manufacturing-related carbon emissions. I'd much rather rent or buy my media online. The AppleTV box is a great little "hobby" as Jobs calls it. I have no doubt that it will mature into a very full-featured device that easily takes the place of a DVD player. Is it there yet? No. But I don't care. I'm not a media freak. I enjoy a good movie every now and then, but I'm not wasting my cash on buying DVDs that I might watch once or twice when I can just click the "Rent HD" button on my AppleTV and start watching.

In my mind, BlueRay is too little, too late. In 3 years, when we're consuming all of our media via the web, no one will care. People thought Jobs was crazy when he axed floppy drives. They thought he was crazy when he included the first erasable optical drive as standard equipment (long before most computers even had CD-ROM capability). And they think he's crazy now. But none of that changes the fact that he's right.

I am not happy about these things. I have nothing against toys or bling. I love the iPhone for it's "toy" features. No doubt about it. But I'm also not deluding myself into ignoring the direction things are going.

And what direction is that, exactly? All I hear are very general complaints with no real substance to any of them.

As for "toy" features, I don't think we have the same phone. I use mine every day. I own rental property and use it to manage my to-dos and respond to questions from tenants. I also do some freelance database work and use my iPhone every day in the management of my projects. My productivity has increased dramatically since I got my iPhone and, to be fair, OmniFocus.

When I'm not working, I enjoy the slick FaceBook integration. I'm a big skier and recently downloaded the SnoLocator app. I can check resort conditions for all of the resorts around Lake Tahoe (when I live), get weather info, see which chairs are turning, etc. I can even view GPS-enabled trail maps. I also do a lot of shopping on Amazon (since shopping in Tahoe leaves a lot to be desired!). The Amazon app is awesome. Simple, effective, and effortless. I could go on and on. The iPhone is anything but a toy. It's a lifestyle device. It makes my life easier and I love it for that.

 

[50548]

Why not a she? Apple could be a she.

I hope you're not thinking of the "wonderfully competent" Carly Fiorina...

Ridiculous!

They own the portable music player market. Mac sales are on the rise and have been for several years. The iPhone is a phenomenon. They have well-established retail stores from coast to coast. And they are one of the most recognized and respected brands in the world. To suggest that, without Steve, they will fall into obscurity is just absurd.

Of course, if anything happens to him, the stock will take a huge hit and people will be nervous for a little while. But nothing changes the fact that Apple offers a superior product. They will offer it the day before Steve leaves, dies, whatever, and they will offer it the day after. Nothing changes.

Just don't hire Sculley or Spindler again, please...

 

[voicegy]

Now Just Fond Memories

Steve or no Steve...the only negative is the loss of the 'magic' of the Keynotes because of the atmosphere. The press and attendees of the 'town halls' just don't produce the same 'zealotry' atmosphere of the keynotes

I couldn't agree more. Sure am glad I went to several of these over the years to see the Wizard in the Great Hall and feel the anticipation and atmosphere - the RDF was always set on "stun" and, along with the pre-"show" music and darkened arena lent a, dare I say, nearly religious, or at least rock-concert-like, pall over the Keynote events. I remember my first one years ago very fondly - even after attending 5 of them over the years, they never lost their excitement.

Afterwards the black wraps would come off on all the "goodies" in the main convention hall and we'd rush to touch the latest products from The Minds of Apple. Then visit all the Apple friendly vendors and pick up goodies, both free and purchased.

Sure, the convention will probably still go on for a few more years, vendors will be there, and seminars and learning opportunities and net working will continue. But with no Stevenote and not even Apple, well....I'll just take a trip down memory lane when early January comes around each year and recall some wonderful times. *sigh*