Apple is not known for having good Black Friday deals, if any. You’d be better off checking for deals from your local retailers or carriers. Also, the 13 Pro should drop in price after the 14 is released next month. Refurbished ones are definitely a good option too. They come with a new battery and look brand new.
Similar to Splitrail, I got my XS during Black Friday 2018 at Walmart and got a $300 gift card. Didn’t have to change plans or anything.
Last year, my carrier had crazy trade-in deals, so I bought 6S for $30 and traded it in for $600 towards the 13. Now I have the XS as a spare, or to trade-in in the future.