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Are we looking at "low supply" or "high demand"?

DirtySocks85

DirtySocks85

macrumors 65816
Original poster
Mar 12, 2009
1,441
82
Wichita, KS
Apple Watch shipping dates began to slip in under 10 minutes of pre-orders going live. Either 1) demand is huge 2) supply is really low 3)Apple is being ultra conservative in their shipping estimates to lower expectations.

My guess is that it's a combination of the above. I think Apple was working down the the wire on getting this product as perfect as they could before they went to manufacturing. It was likely late out the door and they're trying to catch up to their promised launch window.

It will be interesting to see how many of these pop up "in the wild" over the next couple of months. I've been an iPhone owner since 2009 with the iPhone 3G, and never have I witnessed a real life adoption rate as high as the iPhone 6. Typically as an "early adopter" of these things, I would have the product a good 6 months before I saw other people with them on a regular basis. With the iPhone 6, I saw them everywhere by Christmas.

Since we already know that Apple is unlikely to release specific sales numbers on the Watch (as it's going to be filed under "other"), real world anecdotal evidence and metrics from developers are likely to be the best way to track the popularity of the Apple Watch.
 
We honestly wont know the answer to that until we get an estimate of just how many pre-orders were placed.
 
Good question. I'm going will low supply. It looks like the SS w/ link band was simply not available at all. That suggests to me that the supply may well have been low for other models as well.
 
new macbook, in Canada.. delivery date 3-4 weeks.

nothing in store.



I guess it's also considered "sold out during launch". ;)
 
Low supply.

In fact due to the level of "customization" and SKUs, they are probably taking this opportunity to get a sense what people demand and the factory will make the adjustment right now leading up to April 24th.
 
DirtySocks85 said:
Apple Watch shipping dates began to slip in under 10 minutes of pre-orders going live. Either 1) demand is huge 2) supply is really low 3)Apple is being ultra conservative in their shipping estimates to lower expectations.

My guess is that it's a combination of the above. I think Apple was working down the the wire on getting this product as perfect as they could before they went to manufacturing. It was likely late out the door and they're trying to catch up to their promised launch window.

It will be interesting to see how many of these pop up "in the wild" over the next couple of months. I've been an iPhone owner since 2009 with the iPhone 3G, and never have I witnessed a real life adoption rate as high as the iPhone 6. Typically as an "early adopter" of these things, I would have the product a good 6 months before I saw other people with them on a regular basis. With the iPhone 6, I saw them everywhere by Christmas.

Since we already know that Apple is unlikely to release specific sales numbers on the Watch (as it's going to be filed under "other"), real world anecdotal evidence and metrics from developers are likely to be the best way to track the popularity of the Apple Watch.
Click to expand...

I agree with exactly what you said, I think it's a combination of all 3. I do think more people will get the April 24 to May 8 delivery window throughout the next couple days as this all gets sorted out.

Also, on a side note, I completely agree with your "in the wild" adoption rate with the 6. When I got my 5 a full month after launch day, I don't think I saw another 5 in the wild for MONTHS after. With the 6, I saw 3 of them ON launch day, and just tons of them by Christmas.

Will be very interesting with the Watch. Since none of my friends are getting it, I'll be so overly excited when I first see someone who's rocking one!
 
Apple needs to manufacture more for their launches IMO. The forecasted sales are huge and every day a user goes without their Apple Watch order is another day of lost revenue. Even though I'm sure they produced a lot of units initially, I believe it's still too small a quantity to fulfill launch day demand. If they don't want people lining up at their stores, they should supply more on the first batch. That said, if an initial batch is bad, that can really affect perceived quality of the launch units. I believe the demand for the watch is even higher than they originally estimated and the combination of low initial yield with this overwhelming demand is what caused a sell out within the first few minutes of release.
 
Honestly they should have moved the date to middle of May or June and had more supply.

The reason they are not having walk in purchasing is not for convenience, but most likely they just can't make them in time.:D
 
u49aa2 said:
i think its just low supply, no body is buying the watch other than we poor suckers who can't wait to buy the next new tech!
Click to expand...

Well this is actually a "new toy".

iPhones... as much as I love new ones, it's jus the same old same old and not as exciting.
 
Poochi said:
Low supply.

In fact due to the level of "customization" and SKUs, they are probably taking this opportunity to get a sense what people demand and the factory will make the adjustment right now leading up to April 24th.
Click to expand...

This. I think that even with the "favorite" function to help them gauge interest in the various models, they still were only guessing what actual demand would be. They probably had to adjust manufacturing on the fly to account for this. I'm guessing now that they know for sure what demand is like, they will seriously ramp up production of appropriate models and before long there will be plenty.
 
Poochi said:
Low supply.

In fact due to the level of "customization" and SKUs, they are probably taking this opportunity to get a sense what people demand and the factory will make the adjustment right now leading up to April 24th.
Click to expand...

I agree. I'm pretty sure we'll see some date bumps. We just have no idea which models they will prioritize.
 
This is the same problem with new iPhones during release
Apple can't make them fast enough it seems
 
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