An update. Some back-and-forths with a couple of these guys. Unfortunately when buying used it's kind of hit-or-miss which dealerships happen to get the car you like from trade-ins or auctions. So I've had to keep tabs on all of them. In the end, I made an offer on a 2005 Matrix.
The good cop/bad cop duo win out, purely on the numbers. If I try to return the car to buy from anywhere else, they hit me with damage charges for the lease. And buying it out and trading it back in again is equally pointless and still involves me paying for tires and admin fees. And the Matrix they had wasn't bad, a fully-equipped XR with 55K (oh, sorry, that's 34K miles).
(Of course, when the "bad cop" turned out to be the F&I guy, he was suddenly much, much nicer as he tried to sell me on the benefits of rustproofing...)
An interesting experience in negotiation, too.

I verbally tossed around a number that was $2000 below their asking price, which of course the salesman laughed at. Then I got serious and offered them $1500 less. He took it away, came back and said "My manager says no, but we can offer you $200 off..." That's when I got up and left. Five days later he called me back saying they could offer me $1100 off.
Pick-up is tomorrow. Right now I've got the standard cold feet/jitters. I hope the "new" car is as reliable and trouble-free as the old one has been.
In addition to a $70 lower monthly payment, I'll be saving $30/month on insurance and roughly $50/month on gas.