ARM Mac might dominate the next few years

[Zest28]

Rumours are out that Apple has secured RAM supply from Samsung, while other companies such as Dell has failed to do so.

But there is also a GPU crisis unfolding where a RTX 5090 is expected to jump from $2000 to $5000 in the next few months.

If the rumors are true that Apple succesfully secured ahead of time RAM from Samsung, and AMD and NVIDIA GPU's are going to skyrocket to absurd prices on top of this, Apple will be one of the few companies who can build "affordable" computers in 2026 - 2027.

2026 - 2027 could be the year of the Mac.

 

[velocityg4]

I'm thinking more along the lines. That they are the only ones who will be able to produce enough to meet demand, at least based on current demand. For the other brands. It won't be that they can't build affordable computers. It's that they won't be able build enough to meet demand. Leading to scalper pricing of computers. With each computers selling for way over the per unit cost.

This will probably also happen to Macs to some extent. While Apple has pretty strong control over retail pricing. I wouldn't be shocked to see scalpers buying up inventory and selling at inflated prices on eBay, Facebook Marketplace and such.

What I do wonder. Is if Apple is anticipating increased demand for Macs, iPhones, &c and put in a larger order than usual? Because it's not just computers. Even Samsung Galaxy division couldn't order from Samsung RAM division. New smartphones are going to be in short supply. Which means if people can't order a new Samsung, Oneplus, &c. They are going to order an iPhone. Which will strain iPhone supply.

Unlike everyone else. Apple can go in to the RAM manufacturers and offer more money than just about any AI company. Except, maybe, nVidia.

I think Dell will be fine though. Even though their laptop, desktop and workstation lines will suffer. They'll be cranking out servers like crazy. Same with HPE. All that DDR5 manufacturing is going into server memory. Someone has to make the servers.

 

[pshufd]

Lenovo stockpiles RAM as prices skyrocket, reportedly has enough inventory to last through 2026 — memory stock claimed to be 50% higher than usual to fight pricing shock

Lenovo is playing it smart and buying up as much memory inventory as it can

www.tomshardware.com

Realistically, does the typical consumer buy 5090s? 5080 pricing seems normal right now. 5050s are selling at a discount to MSRP. A 5050 probable meets my needs.

 

[Zest28]

Lenovo stockpiles RAM as prices skyrocket, reportedly has enough inventory to last through 2026 — memory stock claimed to be 50% higher than usual to fight pricing shock

Lenovo is playing it smart and buying up as much memory inventory as it can

www.tomshardware.com

Realistically, does the typical consumer buy 5090s? 5080 pricing seems normal right now. 5050s are selling at a discount to MSRP. A 5050 probable meets my needs.

The price increase hasn't happened yet, so the pricing looks fine right now. I don't think it's just the RTX 5090 that will be hit, but the entire product line of NVIDIA and AMD.

I figured Lenovo also played their cards right as I picked up a Lenovo with a RTX 5080 for very cheap recently, which I found quite surpising given the current market conditions.

 

[MRMSFC]

I will believe it when I see it. I doubt Apple will be unaffected by the RAM shortage or hurt less than larger volume manufacturers.

 

[maflynn]

RTX 5090 is expected to jump from $2000 to $5000 in the next few months.

RTX 5090s are currently and have been selling between 2,500 and 4,500, so they're largely not at 2,000 and we'll not suddenly see a 150% increase in price. Also 5090s are not for the general gaming populace, most gamers tend to get something a lot less expensive.

Just look at who's using what on steam, the most popular GPU is an RTX 3060

Apple will be one of the few companies who can build "affordable" computers in 2026 - 2027.

The price delta between PC laptops and MBPs is indeed shrinking, but there's not guarantee apple will not increase pricing for the M5

2026 - 2027 could be the year of the Mac.

LOL, now you're sounding like a Linux person.

Overall, I expect Apple to increase the price of the M5 based computers as they roll out. While they have signed a contract for Samsung for ram, we have no idea if that means high prices or not. It just means they have secured ram from a supplier. Pricing is going up for everyone, I really doubt apple will want to absorb the cost increases, just my $.02 though the proof will be in the pudding as we see apple release new models.

 

[deconstruct60]

Rumours are out that Apple has secured RAM supply from Samsung, while other companies such as Dell has failed to do so.

Apple having to hover near RAM suppliers mostly points otherwise.

Apple Sends Executives to South Korea Hotels to Lock In iPhone RAM Supply

Apple stations executives near Samsung and SK hynix to secure long-term iPhone RAM supply as shortages drive prices higher worldwide.

www.macobserver.com

One of the major problems here is whether other folks keep handing OpenAI ‘drunken sailor spending money’

OpenAI's Stargate project to consume up to 40% of global DRAM output — inks deal with Samsung and SK hynix to the tune of up to 900,000 wafers per month

Working at scale.

www.tomshardware.com

OpenAI does not have any significant hardware products and yet are squatting on a huge disproportionate share of global supply. Decent chance OpenAI won’t be able to pull a stunt quite this large again like this again ( decent chance both Skhynix and Samsung thought they were getting an ‘exclusive’ deal , or maybe not since their margins and stock have gone up )

There is an assumption that Apple’s already active contracts with last until the DRAM starts to recover . If more money is thrown at market manipulation those positions may expire. Apple could secure wafreers but it wouldn’t be at the same prices as before .


Apple doesn’t like to change prices on products once released so likely has longer contract than most vendors but there is also likely limits to the time. Decent chance if there was a very late 2025 contract it was for 2027 product more so than 2026 .

 

[cbum]

An alternative view would be that the AI bubble will pop, and suddenly we will be drowning in excess RAM after everyone has been racing to increase capacity ...

 

[theorist9]

Rumours are out that Apple has secured RAM supply from Samsung, while other companies such as Dell has failed to do so.

But there is also a GPU crisis unfolding where a RTX 5090 is expected to jump from $2000 to $5000 in the next few months.

If the rumors are true that Apple succesfully secured ahead of time RAM from Samsung, and AMD and NVIDIA GPU's are going to skyrocket to absurd prices on top of this, Apple will be one of the few companies who can build "affordable" computers in 2026 - 2027.

2026 - 2027 could be the year of the Mac.

They may have secured RAM, but on the other hand it's been reported that they've lost priority access for their processors:

Apple's sweetheart deal with its main chipmaker comes to abrupt end

The days when Apple was TSMC's absolute favorite company are over. The iPhone maker now must pay more for chips and fight for the latest processors.

www.cultofmac.com

 

[maflynn]

They may have secured RAM, but on the other hand it's been reported that they've lost priority access for their processors:

No matter how you slice it, Apple is going to have a challanging year with supply chain, whether we're talking ram, Fab space, ssd, etc.

I'm really happy I bought my Studio last summer, partly because I'm avoiding a ton of the issues related to windows, and craziness there, and I no longer have to worry about the immediate future

 

[theluggage]

It's not going to be a case of if Apple are affected - it's whether they fare better than other PC/phone makers.

They probably will fare better than "budget" phones and PCs that rely on much slimmer margins. The last time it was possible to compare (back when Macs used regular RAM modules) they were charging several times the retail price for upgrades (and probably able to negotiate rock-bottom wholesale prices) and I doubt they've dropped their margins with the move to soldered-in RAM. So if they wanted to they could probably hold their prices and still sleep indoors.

They also stand to gain from the ongoing enshirtification of Windows - while Tahoe/iOS26 is not without its detractors it's largely spared the intrusive ads and largely unwanted AI being foisted on Windows users (all part of the same AI Ponzi scheme that is driving component shortages).

 

[pshufd]

RTX 5090s are currently and have been selling between 2,500 and 4,500, so they're largely not at 2,000 and we'll not suddenly see a 150% increase in price. Also 5090s are not for the general gaming populace, most gamers tend to get something a lot less expensive.

Just look at who's using what on steam, the most popular GPU is an RTX 3060

View attachment 2599133



The price delta between PC laptops and MBPs is indeed shrinking, but there's not guarantee apple will not increase pricing for the M5


LOL, now you're sounding like a Linux person.

Overall, I expect Apple to increase the price of the M5 based computers as they roll out. While they have signed a contract for Samsung for ram, we have no idea if that means high prices or not. It just means they have secured ram from a supplier. Pricing is going up for everyone, I really doubt apple will want to absorb the cost increases, just my $.02 though the proof will be in the pudding as we see apple release new models.

There is on-again and off-again talk about nVidia dropping some of their consumer GPUs as AI has higher margins. Maybe the margins are higher with the price increases too. TSMC has raised prices and nVidia has supplanted Apple as their most important customer. Then there's the price of RAM.

 

[pshufd]

It's not going to be a case of if Apple are affected - it's whether they fare better than other PC/phone makers.

They probably will fare better than "budget" phones and PCs that rely on much slimmer margins. The last time it was possible to compare (back when Macs used regular RAM modules) they were charging several times the retail price for upgrades (and probably able to negotiate rock-bottom wholesale prices) and I doubt they've dropped their margins with the move to soldered-in RAM. So if they wanted to they could probably hold their prices and still sleep indoors.

They also stand to gain from the ongoing enshirtification of Windows - while Tahoe/iOS26 is not without its detractors it's largely spared the intrusive ads and largely unwanted AI being foisted on Windows users (all part of the same AI Ponzi scheme that is driving component shortages).

There's a DRAM and Flash company in China that Apple was planning on using for flash. The US restricted their use (probably due to lobbying by western companies) so US companies can't buy their products. So the Chinese and other countries may have access to cheap RAM as they grow.

 

[deconstruct60]

There's a DRAM and Flash company in China

Just NAND (Yangtze Memory Technologies Co: YMTC) at this point.

"... News agencies reported in January 2022 that Tsinghua Unigroup had scrapped its intention to build two major fabs announced in 2017, citing serious financial issues.[32] The first was to be a DRAM plant in Chongqing, and the second was to be a $24 billion facility for 3D NAND flash memory in Chengdu.[33] ..."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsinghua_Unigroup

[ some scandals with funds here also; not just sanctions. ]

October 2022
"... Apple had originally planned to start using state-funded YMTC's NAND flash memory chips as early as this year, Nikkei said, citing people familiar with the matter. The chips were initially planned to be used only for iPhones sold in the Chinese market. ..."

Apple freezes plans to use China's YMTC chips - Nikkei

U.S. tech giant Apple Inc has put on hold plans to use memory chips from China's Yangtze Memory Technologies Co (YMTC) in its products, after Washington imposed tighter export controls against Chinese technology companies, the Nikkei reported on Monday.

www.reuters.com

So is the Central party steering Apple toward them as a 'bail out' or it was all 100% Apple's idea?

that Apple was planning on using for flash. The US restricted their use (probably due to lobbying by western companies) so US companies can't buy their products. So the Chinese and other countries may have access to cheap RAM as they grow.

The "RAM Crisis" isn't all of RAM. It is just variations of DDR5 (LPDDR5) and HBM. DDR4 the Chinese produce and are not blocked. (side-effect of some of this very advanced tools sanction stuff is to hand older tech over to the Chinese.) It is only the 'fastest, latest greatest' tech RAM that is in shortage. That is why AMD is doing a refresh of some older Zen cores that only take DDR4 and Intel is somewhat happily shipping Gen 12/13 stuff still. Older tech always was the basis for cheaper component products.

DDR6 with not EUV tools probably isn't going to work so well.

 

[throAU]

I will believe it when I see it. I doubt Apple will be unaffected by the RAM shortage or hurt less than larger volume manufacturers.

Apple probably buys more ram than any other individual OEM. Certainly more consumer spec DRAM. iPads, iPhones, Macs, appleTVs, watches, etc. - so they're likely to have more leverage.

 

[maflynn]

Apple probably buys more ram than any other individual OEM. Certainly more consumer spec DRAM. iPads, iPhones, Macs, appleTVs, watches, etc. - so they're likely to have more leverage.

Samsung now supplies about 60% to 70% of apple's ram and the prices are going up

Samsung will make iPhones more expensive and Apple can't do anything about it

Reports out of South Korea claim that Samsung has increased the price of LPDDR chips that it supplies to Apple in Q1 2025 by as much as 80% compared to the previous quarter. Samsung's price hike is reportedly still lower than SK Hynix which is believed to have gone for a 100% increase.