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ASUSTeK to Manufacture Flash iPods?

Well, first, if we assume these facts are true, and that this represents the total cost of goods (including packaging, headphones...etc...but excluding marketing and R&D...these are not usually factored into "cost of good sold")...and this is probably a safe assumption because it seems unlikely they would have just the device made and shipped to be packaged elsewhere. This will all be done in one facility...and we assume a gross margin of around 30%...this could be a $99 product.

We don't know what the capacity is...but I'd guess 1GB...no display...something you'd load, grab and go...a single playlist device...an additional iPod or and entry-level iPod.

At about 250 songs...this is well over a workday's worth of music. Plus (let's assume) awsome battery life...say 20 hours.

This makes sense to me. It also awesome if they can get a 34% margin on such a low end product! And I could see them easily selling 5M in a single quarter. There are probably 2-3 sold to me for family members.

I think if they make it especially cool...hang it from your neck or something like that...that is all the better.
 
mrgreen4242 said:
Would also be a distiguishing feature (no other player I've seen has a built in USB plug)
Click to expand...

Hum... I've seen one of those earlier this week, and it sucked, so no, it wouldn't be something that cool. And I don't think Apple would want to implement that, it would be a waste of R&D. They have some preety nice but cheaply produced designs, like the power plug adapters for their power bricks; those are smartly designed but have some rough seams and all, and that's how that kind of components is supposed to be. But not an iPod, no. It's a "fashion statement" :rolleyes:

It would be cool if Apple included in the iPod's package, apart from the regular long cables, something along the lines of SendStation Pocketdock (but with male connectors on both ends), or just an extra short Firewire + USB cable...

Oh, by the way, does anyone here own one of those? And if so, could you tell me if you can connect a PocketDock to a regular iPod dock? It's just that I'd like to recharge my iPod using the power adapter connected to the dock (because my iMac G5 won't recharge the iPod when in sleep mode like my old iMac G4 did). I'd like to leave the dock-connector FW cable always connected to my iMac, and as I have a spare FW cable lying around, I could use that to connect the power adapter to the dock, which is connected with the stereo, in my room :cool: Since probably the Pocketdock won't be much more expensive than a new dock connector FW cable. Even if it's twice as much, I'll still get a great portable accessory, since I'll be buyin the line-out version ;)
 
I am thinking there will be no USB (directly)...but either a FireWire (as with the original), or, more likely, the new dock-style connector with support for both FW and USB2.
 
mrgreen4242 said:
My other thought was that if it were to be much smaller than the mini it might be a winning design to put a USB 2.0 adaptor right on the player. Have it slide/fold in and out or something to make it compact, but yo ucould use it as a USB flash drive without carrying around any extra cables, etc. Would also be a distiguishing feature (no other player I've seen has a built in USB plug)
Click to expand...

At least over here (Germany), USB sticks with player capabilities are selling like hot cakes. My wife bought herself one for work out which holds 128MB, is round and as small as a 2 EURO coin and only has a couple of buttons like play/pause, skip,and back. No display, sells for 70EUR ($100), USB interface integrated.

It does not replace her iPod, but works nicely as either a USB memory stick or a micro player.
 
I bet it will be 1 GB at $149. I'm guessing that in comparison to the other 1 GB flash players out there. Still, it'll be a market killer for the competition. iPod's for everyone! :D
 
A quick scan of prices makes me ever wonder how anyone could think the iPod are overpriced (the two 1GB flash players I saw were for $249 and $229...and the several 512MB flash players were for $199, $179 and $139...all of the 256MB ones are $149).

Anyway...it looks like Apple will not come in under $149 for a 512MB device (8-hours of music). It'll be cool. They'll sell a ton. They'll bring in another tier of iPod owners. They'll own the rest of the market.

So maybe something like this:

(wishful thinking)
iPod micro (256MB) - $99
iPod micro (512MB) - $149
iPod micro (1GB) - $199

(more realistic thinking)
iPod micro (256MB) - $149
iPod micro (512MB) - $199

iPod mini (5GB) - $249

iPod (20GB) - $299
iPod (40GB) - $399

iPod photo (40GB) - $499
iPod photo (60GB) - $599

It seems more Apple's style to offer you something less and something more. In this case the something less would be the things that add cost to the unit (display, FM tuner) and therefore cut into their margin. The something more would things that don't cost them anything like style, fashion...and, most importantly, access to iTMS.
 
ccuilla said:
A quick scan of prices makes me ever wonder how anyone could think the iPod are overpriced (the two 1GB flash players I saw were for $249 and $229...and the several 512MB flash players were for $199, $179 and $139...all of the 256MB ones are $149).
Click to expand...
There were quite a few of the 512MB units running instant rebates, sales prices, etc. right now to entice them to buy them instead of the 128/256MB units.

But Apple most likely won't bring out something everyone has, they hit the premium end of the market -- possibly with a how did they do that price.

So we can hope for a bit more flash memory.
 
I wonder what they would call a flash based iPod... flashPod isn't bad, but is longer than most of the nams they give their products. What about ePod to go with the eMac? Seems like the e- thing is a little played out, tho... the i- thing is starting to get old too, tho... imho. :)
 
mrgreen4242 said:
I wonder what they would call a flash based iPod... flashPod isn't bad, but is longer than most of the nams they give their products. What about ePod to go with the eMac? Seems like the e- thing is a little played out, tho... the i- thing is starting to get old too, tho... imho. :)
Click to expand...

Would only confuse people to name it anything else than "iPod micro". After all, the iPod mini is different, smaller size and smaller capacity. What's smaller than mini? Micro. If it's called anything else, I'll eat 100% wheat bread for a week.

...

What? I hate 100% wheat bread, it doesn't taste anything! (I'm used to oat bran bread).

And if I lose my bet, I can actually keep up my word. :D
 
Yvan256 said:
Would only confuse people to name it anything else than "iPod micro". After all, the iPod mini is different, smaller size and smaller capacity. What's smaller than mini? Micro. If it's called anything else, I'll eat 100% wheat bread for a week.

...

What? I hate 100% wheat bread, it doesn't taste anything! (I'm used to oat bran bread).

And if I lose my bet, I can actually keep up my word. :D
Click to expand...

I agree about the naming...anyone that thinks the word "flash" will make it anywhere near an Apple product doesn't know a) Apple, or b) consumers.

When will evryone get this...consumers don't give a crap about what technology is inside the thing! Period.
 
My guess is that Apple is going to offer one flavor of this iPod, similar to how there is one flavor of the mini. Apple increases options upward, generally. Their more expensive models have more variants than do the less expensive ones.

I doubt apple will even wade into 256 megs. Steve Jobs has always said that the flash players were junk because you could only carry a few songs. There is no way, in my opinion, that they are going to eat their words and come up with a 256 or even 512 meg model, because then they are going to have to explain why for Apple something that holds things "in megs" is ok.
My guess: $149 model with 1GB capacity.
I just don't see them coming out with anything below that. When apple does something, they want it to be "the best, the smallest, the fastest etc."
1 GB is the minimum for apple to get into this.

Consider this: if they get one (or several suppliers) of flash ram and guarantee 5 million units, they can likely get the price down to a reasonable level.

If i'm playing fantasy games, they *could* go for the juggular and release a 1GB model for $99. That would be the ultimate "impulse" buy for many people. If they lower the price of the Mini down to $199, then you've got
$99 1gb "micro"
$199 5gb mini
$299 20gb regular.
and up
That's a pretty decent price field there and keeps each model from bumping into the other.

What do you all think? Sorry for the length of this :)
 
djpedro said:
Consider this: if they get one (or several suppliers) of flash ram and guarantee 5 million units, they can likely get the price down to a reasonable level.

If i'm playing fantasy games, they *could* go for the juggular and release a 1GB model for $99. That would be the ultimate "impulse" buy for many people. If they lower the price of the Mini down to $199, then you've got
$99 1gb "micro"
$199 5gb mini
$299 20gb regular.
and up
That's a pretty decent price field there and keeps each model from bumping into the other.

What do you all think?
Click to expand...

sounds reasonable.
 
djpedro said:
snip...If i'm playing fantasy games, they *could* go for the juggular and release a 1GB model for $99. That would be the ultimate "impulse" buy for many people. If they lower the price of the Mini down to $199, then you've got
$99 1gb "micro"
$199 5gb mini
$299 20gb regular.
and up
That's a pretty decent price field there and keeps each model from bumping into the other.

What do you all think? Sorry for the length of this :)
Click to expand...

I think the iPod micro will be 1GB. Possible that it will be 512MB, but 1GB sounds right. 2GB would be nice, but then it is too close in capacity to the mini. Yup, 1GB for $149-179 sounds like Apple. Love to see 1GB for $129 ($99 ain't happening unless it is 512MB).
They are going to up the capacity of the mini to 5GB, so don't expect a lower price there. That is not Apple's style, especially when the mini is selling like crazy at $249.
 
Smart Lists

The one thing that Jobs can present that keeps him from eating his hat regarding the miniscule capacity that the iPod micro and the "iPhone" will have is to demonstrate how smart lists will make this all useful. For example: the perfect smartlist for the iPhone (assuming capacity of 15 songs):

My Rating is greater than ***
Limit to 15 songs selected by least recently played
Live updating

This gives you the 15 high-rated songs that you haven't heard in the longest time on your phone whenever you sync it. (You'd just have to make sure that the phone syncs its "last played" data before grabbing the new list of songs)

It's perfect, really, and I can just hear Jobs at MacWorld "Now, how can I get the songs I want on my phone? This is where iTunes, everyone's favorite music jukebox program really shines. I could make a manual list of songs that I want on my phone... or I could come up here to the file menu, make a new Smart List..."
 
djpedro said:
[...]

$99 1GB "micro"
$199 5GB mini
$299 20GB regular.
and up

That's a pretty decent price field there and keeps each model from bumping into the other.

What do you all think? Sorry for the length of this :)
Click to expand...

I agree with all your post, including the prices (although I'm betting on 129$US for the 1GB iPod micro and 229$US for the 5GB iPod mini). Seems like a decent offering at decent prices. Steve did mention they wanted to lower their iPod prices.

If they really do release a 1GB iPod micro for 99$US, I hope they got a few millions ready to ship when they start selling it. If you thought 2004 was the iPod year, wait 'till 2005!

Unless they release that PowerBook G6... :D
 
croasmun said:
The one thing that Jobs can present that keeps him from eating his hat regarding the miniscule capacity that the iPod micro and the "iPhone" will have is to demonstrate how smart lists will make this all useful. For example: the perfect smartlist for the iPhone (assuming capacity of 15 songs):

My Rating is greater than ***
Limit to 15 songs selected by least recently played
Live updating

This gives you the 15 high-rated songs that you haven't heard in the longest time on your phone whenever you sync it. (You'd just have to make sure that the phone syncs its "last played" data before grabbing the new list of songs)

It's perfect, really, and I can just hear Jobs at MacWorld "Now, how can I get the songs I want on my phone? This is where iTunes, everyone's favorite music jukebox program really shines. I could make a manual list of songs that I want on my phone... or I could come up here to the file menu, make a new Smart List..."
Click to expand...

I think this is exactly right. Though the updating of smart playlists needs a tweek. As in...refresh this playlist whever I update my iPod. Smart playlists don't change the songs once they are created do they? Maybe I haven't created a "smart enough" one yet.
 
ccuilla said:
I think this is exactly right. Though the updating of smart playlists needs a tweek. As in...refresh this playlist whever I update my iPod. Smart playlists don't change the songs once they are created do they? Maybe I haven't created a "smart enough" one yet.
Click to expand...

Smart playlists are exactly that: smart. They update whenever any data changes on any song in your library.

I do wonder how iTunes will sync more than one device though... (iTunes has a rating of 3 for a song, I listened to it on my iPod on the bus and re-rated it only 2, then later I listened to it on my phone and rated it 4. How does iTunes decides what's my new real rating? Last modified date?)
 
Yvan256 said:
Smart playlists are exactly that: smart. They update whenever any data changes on any song in your library.

I do wonder how iTunes will sync more than one device though... (iTunes has a rating of 3 for a song, I listened to it on my iPod on the bus and re-rated it only 2, then later I listened to it on my phone and rated it 4. How does iTunes decides what's my new real rating? Last modified date?)
Click to expand...

Last sync wins?
 
Freg3000 said:
$65 for the entire Flash iPod, or just the flash components of the Flash iPod? If Apple can make it for only 65 bucks, even with a 50% we still will have our $100 digital music player from Apple.

If not, I am still guessing $149.
Click to expand...
That $65 price is the wholesale export price - what ASUSTek is charging for the players in bulk. Now, you have to add on tariffs, excise taxes, trans-pacific shipping, repackaging (they're going to be sold in single-unit boxes,) at least one layer of distributor and some amount of profit margin before you get to a retail price.

IMO, you should expect it at a $150-200 price point.
 
nagromme said:
4 GB = 1000 songs
2 GB = 500 songs
1 GB = 250 songs
512 MB = 125 songs
256 MB = 62 songs
128 MB = 31 songs
64 MB = 15 songs (one CD!)
32 MB = 8 songs (not even! Better drop the quality!)

You can see why Apple would never want to touch the bottom of the market. Most people buying a low-capacity player will be disappointed. Apple wants most of its users to actually USE the thing, I'm sure. They have a usability standard that other companies ignore to make a quick sale.
Click to expand...
Unless it is expandable. I could see them selling a $100 model with 256M and an SD slot for expansion. This way, you can carry 60 songs or so, and if you want more, you can expand the capacity. If done properly, you should also be able to load songs onto multiple cards and hot-swap them in the player (much like how you'd change the CD on a CD player.) With 512M SD cards selling for $60-100 (according to BestBuy's web site), I think this is a solution that could work.

If the unit is not expandable, however, then you're right. Nothing less than 1G would be acceptable.
 
Yvan256 said:
When they introduced the iPod, I think it could only play MP3s. And they stated the capacity with 128kbps CD-Quality MP3 songs.
Click to expand...
No. When the iPod was first introduced, their capacity estimates were all based on a 160K bitrate. They concluded (correctly) than 128K MP3 just isn't good enough to be considered CD-quality.

This is why the original 5G iPod was advertised as having a 1000-song capacity and not a 1250-song capacity.

After AAC was introduced, then they changed their estimates to be based on a 128K bitrate.
Yvan256 said:
They will officially introduce H.264 to the public (last time was for programmers). They will also introduce HE-AAC, and I'd bet they'll all "upgrade" the capacities of all iPods.
Click to expand...
I would assume so. If they upgrade the codec, they will figure out what bitrate provides an equivalent quality to the (prior) 128K AAC standard, and they'll generate their estimates based on that rate.
 
shamino said:
That $65 price is the wholesale export price - what ASUSTek is charging for the players in bulk. Now, you have to add on tariffs, excise taxes, trans-pacific shipping, repackaging (they're going to be sold in single-unit boxes,) at least one layer of distributor and some amount of profit margin before you get to a retail price..
Click to expand...

shamino is correct on the costs - the $65 is the FOB (free on board) price and will the FOB at the factory. Apple pays a lot on top of that. When you look at the final price you can work out what the total cost is by assuming a 28% to 30% gross margin to cover expenses like R&D, advertising, support costs, etc.

In terms of capacity, retail pricing of flash memory is not an indicator. Remember when the mini came out? People were buying them just for the HD. They would rip out the HD and throw away the rest ( :( ) and save around $200 over the retail price of the HD. Apple gets good pricing to say the least.

As for design, people want an iPod. It needs to look like an iPod and using a mini form factor (with different colors, or using plastic) is a good way for retaining the iPod look and reducing design costs. I don't expect anything radically different on the design side - you'll look at it and know it's an iPod, which is what the customers want.

My bet is 1 - 2 gigs for $129 - $149.
 
kenaustus said:
shamino is correct on the costs - the $65 is the FOB (free on board) price and will the FOB at the factory. Apple pays a lot on top of that. When you look at the final price you can work out what the total cost is by assuming a 28% to 30% gross margin to cover expenses like R&D, advertising, support costs, etc.

In terms of capacity, retail pricing of flash memory is not an indicator. Remember when the mini came out? People were buying them just for the HD. They would rip out the HD and throw away the rest ( :( ) and save around $200 over the retail price of the HD. Apple gets good pricing to say the least.

As for design, people want an iPod. It needs to look like an iPod and using a mini form factor (with different colors, or using plastic) is a good way for retaining the iPod look and reducing design costs. I don't expect anything radically different on the design side - you'll look at it and know it's an iPod, which is what the customers want.

My bet is 1 - 2 gigs for $129 - $149.
Click to expand...


In that case, I'd predict 1GB iPod micro for $149. Good price-point. Gets closer to the "magical" $99.
 
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