I'll be a grumpy old man with you, Mike B!

I do want to ask about two things that you've said in this thread specifically:
Mikey B said:
Apple has a lot to LOSE by unveiling the 2nd Gen iPhone at the same time as FW 2.0...
Huh? I don't get it. What and why would they lose by doing this? It isn't as though all of the work being done by developers right now will automatically not work on the new iPhone. If I understand what you are saying, that's a rather large misconception.
In fact, I would be willing to bet that given all of the media attention the next iPhone is already getting that the risk of loss actually lies in
not introducing a new iPhone at the same time. "Yay, new software ... that I don't have enough room to put on my iPhone or a decent enough web connection to download and use. I think I'll wait."
Mikey B said:
I just don't think AT&T is going to subsidize the iPhone, I think it makes absolutely no business sense and I don't think Apple would ever allow it...
I agree with you that Apple probably has built into the contract that, at the very least, AT&T cannot subsidize the phone in direct competition with Apple. That said, there have been good examples in this thread of how it could work in conjunction, for example a $200 rebate given as a part of the iTunes hookup process making it available to those purchasing it via Apple or AT&T.
What I would press you on is the "no business sense." Aside from experience and consistent business models doing exactly what is being rumored (i.e. a rebate for a new, expensive phone with a new two year contract), the financial basis is there for it to make sense.
I think it was said with better eloquence above in this same thread, but simply put, getting someone who might otherwise not get an iPhone - and let's face it, then much less likely to go with AT&T - to purchase an iPhone and
sign up for a two year contract is money in the bank. There is a tremendous base of customers who would decide to go with an iPhone after a surface $200 price drop, and that base of customers will bring a *%@&-ton of more money through their contracts than AT&T will actually 'lose' in offering a rebate. Bear in mind, the vast majority of cell phone company profits are from their contracts/monthly fees, not phone sales.