Got a tip for us?
Let us know
Become a MacRumors Supporter for $50/year with no ads, ability to filter front page stories, and private forums.
Ballmer on iPhone Marketshare
- Thread starter MacRumors
- Start date
- Sort by reaction score
Since he has no artistic taste, Ballmer probably sees the iPhone as essentially no different to all the other smart phones already out there, and therefore sees no reason why it should take over.
But as someone who does have some taste, I have to say it is quite a bit better than the other sh*tty ones on offer.
But as someone who does have some taste, I have to say it is quite a bit better than the other sh*tty ones on offer.
Just an opinion..
There are going to be MANY businesses that will not adopt the iPhone because of perceived fear of communicating/syncing with their windows systems. You have to realize that many businesses use Windows machines and there is going to be a perception that the iPhone won't play well with it (now we all figure it will, but who knows?).
Many businesses will still use their Blackberries.. Honestly.. You can get a good blackberry for less than a hundred bucks these days and for business that is what most folks will need (push email). Not many companies are going to be able to justify the extra money for iPhones for all of their folks that use Blackberries..
Now that being said.. Business is a small fraction of the cell phone market. Apple is shooting for 1% by end of 2008 right? That is attainable, but I don't think with the current business model.
Reasoning:
It is expensive.. Yes.. I am going to buy one the day that they are released because unlike many of the 'early adopters' I actually have a use for all of the features that it offers (I work virtually from home and this is a great device considering the HTML web browsing and stuff since a lot of my work is done in propietary systems that do not work very well with my Treo (but work fine in Safari so in theory they should work wonderfully with the iPhone. There are a lot of people who are not going to be able to justify that kind of price... Kids aren't going to be able to talk mommy and daddy into this one... When they can get a RAZR for $49 bucks parents aren't going to spend $599 for a phone when they still have to pay for a dataplan to go with it (and for those of you that honestly think that the dataplan will be different from the typical cingular one just keep dreaming.. It is going to cost you $39.99 a month -- perhaps higher.. their blackberry service is $44.99 and that wouldn't surprise me to see the iPhone fall under that connect package. I pay $39.99 a month for my Treo's data.. I will continue to pay the data plan.. There is NO way that Cingular is going to put that in the $599 package... There is also NO way that you are going to get data for free. So.. You can buy the $599 phone and NOT buy the data plan, but then you get an iPod and a Phone that will do Text Messaging.. Then we start wondering.. $199 for an iPod Nano and $49.99 for a RAZR. Yep... No where near $599. I just don't see the current business model supporting even 1% of the cell phone population as long as they stay with ONLY Cingular/ATT. You are going to have to branch out. I would think that the RAZR probably has 2-3% of the population.. That is HUGE. Everyone you see seems to have a RAZR and that is only 2-3% probably. No way Apple gets 1%. It is to much of a 'niche' phone and not enough of a true 'difference maker' to get that much of a major adoption.
Honestly.. 8-10% of computer users are Mac people.. I don't forsee 1% being iPhone folks as those 8-10% of the computer market isn't going to see spending that much on a phone + a data plan.
Now.. Again.. I am a fan of the phone.. Will buy one the day it is out and enjoy the hell out of it.. I also know that i will probably have a much better product than my current Treo 650 as it is really buggy.
Balmer probably isn't far off in his thoughts here though.. I would rather have 60% of the software on phones than 1% of the phone market... Now.. that isn't going to happen either as there isn't ever going to be 60% of the world cellphone users having smartphones.. It is to much concentrated on business people to ever catch on at that number. I don't see MS stuff on regular phones being that popular. There isn't a need for it.
I think MS and Apple both need to chill.. Let the phone come out.. Lets see what it really can do and if they get the 1% GREAT! If not.. Then it will be the 'next' phone that did as every other Nokia and Moto phone has done (some folks will have it and others will say "it is cool, but no way I am getting that right now").
Thoughts?
Michael
There are going to be MANY businesses that will not adopt the iPhone because of perceived fear of communicating/syncing with their windows systems. You have to realize that many businesses use Windows machines and there is going to be a perception that the iPhone won't play well with it (now we all figure it will, but who knows?).
Many businesses will still use their Blackberries.. Honestly.. You can get a good blackberry for less than a hundred bucks these days and for business that is what most folks will need (push email). Not many companies are going to be able to justify the extra money for iPhones for all of their folks that use Blackberries..
Now that being said.. Business is a small fraction of the cell phone market. Apple is shooting for 1% by end of 2008 right? That is attainable, but I don't think with the current business model.
Reasoning:
It is expensive.. Yes.. I am going to buy one the day that they are released because unlike many of the 'early adopters' I actually have a use for all of the features that it offers (I work virtually from home and this is a great device considering the HTML web browsing and stuff since a lot of my work is done in propietary systems that do not work very well with my Treo (but work fine in Safari so in theory they should work wonderfully with the iPhone. There are a lot of people who are not going to be able to justify that kind of price... Kids aren't going to be able to talk mommy and daddy into this one... When they can get a RAZR for $49 bucks parents aren't going to spend $599 for a phone when they still have to pay for a dataplan to go with it (and for those of you that honestly think that the dataplan will be different from the typical cingular one just keep dreaming.. It is going to cost you $39.99 a month -- perhaps higher.. their blackberry service is $44.99 and that wouldn't surprise me to see the iPhone fall under that connect package. I pay $39.99 a month for my Treo's data.. I will continue to pay the data plan.. There is NO way that Cingular is going to put that in the $599 package... There is also NO way that you are going to get data for free. So.. You can buy the $599 phone and NOT buy the data plan, but then you get an iPod and a Phone that will do Text Messaging.. Then we start wondering.. $199 for an iPod Nano and $49.99 for a RAZR. Yep... No where near $599. I just don't see the current business model supporting even 1% of the cell phone population as long as they stay with ONLY Cingular/ATT. You are going to have to branch out. I would think that the RAZR probably has 2-3% of the population.. That is HUGE. Everyone you see seems to have a RAZR and that is only 2-3% probably. No way Apple gets 1%. It is to much of a 'niche' phone and not enough of a true 'difference maker' to get that much of a major adoption.
Honestly.. 8-10% of computer users are Mac people.. I don't forsee 1% being iPhone folks as those 8-10% of the computer market isn't going to see spending that much on a phone + a data plan.
Now.. Again.. I am a fan of the phone.. Will buy one the day it is out and enjoy the hell out of it.. I also know that i will probably have a much better product than my current Treo 650 as it is really buggy.
Balmer probably isn't far off in his thoughts here though.. I would rather have 60% of the software on phones than 1% of the phone market... Now.. that isn't going to happen either as there isn't ever going to be 60% of the world cellphone users having smartphones.. It is to much concentrated on business people to ever catch on at that number. I don't see MS stuff on regular phones being that popular. There isn't a need for it.
I think MS and Apple both need to chill.. Let the phone come out.. Lets see what it really can do and if they get the 1% GREAT! If not.. Then it will be the 'next' phone that did as every other Nokia and Moto phone has done (some folks will have it and others will say "it is cool, but no way I am getting that right now").
Thoughts?
Michael
Cell phones are ripe for the kind of user-experience reinvention that made the iPod the mack-daddy of the mp3 player world.
Remember all of the initial criticism of the iPod? Nothing new? Too expensive? A fantastic, easy, intuitive, and functional user experience wins big over bells & whistles.
I have disliked every cell phone I've ever owned or used at work. Bad displays, buttons too small, terrible interfaces, convoluted OSs. If Apple just makes the current technology work seamlessly, easily, and elegantly, with great build quality and Apple "chic", this thing is going to be HUGE.
Think user experience. That is the ONLY thing that really sets an iPod apart from its competitors. That one factor = complete market domination.
I have to find a way to get my wife to let me buy Apple stock before the iPhone release date.
Ballmer is an IDIOT. Worse, he is a vindictive idiot.
Worse still, he is a LIAR.
His typical expression shows him with his tongue sticking out, like an angry and frustrated schoolboy, or a monkey expressing dislike and contempt.
Microsh*t lose tons o' cash every year trying to capture markets that they dont understand.
Why do the M$ shareholders put up with this nonsense?
He is the man who runs the company that came up with the Zune - I am amazed that he is still employed.
He probably thinks that 911 was NOT an inside job.
Ballmer can kiss my a$$. I REALLY dont like this guy.
Worse still, he is a LIAR.
His typical expression shows him with his tongue sticking out, like an angry and frustrated schoolboy, or a monkey expressing dislike and contempt.
Microsh*t lose tons o' cash every year trying to capture markets that they dont understand.
Why do the M$ shareholders put up with this nonsense?
He is the man who runs the company that came up with the Zune - I am amazed that he is still employed.
He probably thinks that 911 was NOT an inside job.
Ballmer can kiss my a$$. I REALLY dont like this guy.
Ninja Phone...
Balmer is taking this phone in isolation.
Iphone is really a ninja phone - a stealth bomb - a Trojan - the phone part is the 'killer app' but the real payload is a 'mac in your pocket' that's also an ipod - THAT message is already beginning to emerge and 6 months from now that's what they'll be selling this thing as.
Iphone is the seed of a 21st century blazing HOT pocket macintosh. The potential level of technology and sex appeal in this direction are literally off the chart... that's what they're all ignoringby continually making parallels soley to the traditional phone markets.They just 'don't get it' - Steve and his i-team obviously do!.
So it's a Trojan for WHAT? For Apple's mass market phone!! Nano Phone!
The second offering will probably look exactly like a nano - now that's really what's got nokia, M$, Motorola terrified. A full nano ipod with basic phone functionality priced just $50 above a standard nano.
Now were talking about selling 50 million of these babies and the iphone will get sucked along in it's wake.
Net Result by 2009 ;
100 million nano phone buyers per year.
40 million iphone buyers per year
40 million MAC buyers per year!
Balmer is playing poker right now - 'bluff' he says, 'Job's got nothing in his hand'...
Bottom Line : Jobs Lives Apple. Balmer works at Microsoft
Well we know the truth don't we!!
Balmer is taking this phone in isolation.
Iphone is really a ninja phone - a stealth bomb - a Trojan - the phone part is the 'killer app' but the real payload is a 'mac in your pocket' that's also an ipod - THAT message is already beginning to emerge and 6 months from now that's what they'll be selling this thing as.
Iphone is the seed of a 21st century blazing HOT pocket macintosh. The potential level of technology and sex appeal in this direction are literally off the chart... that's what they're all ignoringby continually making parallels soley to the traditional phone markets.They just 'don't get it' - Steve and his i-team obviously do!.
So it's a Trojan for WHAT? For Apple's mass market phone!! Nano Phone!
The second offering will probably look exactly like a nano - now that's really what's got nokia, M$, Motorola terrified. A full nano ipod with basic phone functionality priced just $50 above a standard nano.
Now were talking about selling 50 million of these babies and the iphone will get sucked along in it's wake.
Net Result by 2009 ;
100 million nano phone buyers per year.
40 million iphone buyers per year
40 million MAC buyers per year!
Balmer is playing poker right now - 'bluff' he says, 'Job's got nothing in his hand'...
Bottom Line : Jobs Lives Apple. Balmer works at Microsoft
Well we know the truth don't we!!
Remember too that that's just smartphones, which make up less than 10% of phones sold, and Windows Mobile isn't found on any non-smartphones. He might 'prefer' 80% but he has less than 1%.
I respectfully say 'Let's get hysterically buzzed!" and with good reason.
Apple have already hit the bullseye with this.
Suddenly the so far unsurpassed pinnacle of hi-tech 'the Star Trek communicator' a.k.a the StarTac style Motorola flip phone suddenly looks 'underwhelming'.
The future is promised and soon to be delivered....
It's going to sell a million on day one!.
That's success!.
This thing is techno-viagra!!. I for one look forward to the slogan "Thrust more power into your pocket than you ever possibly imagined"....
Not sure I agree with this. Apple have successfully diversified before and I'm sure will again in the future.
It's also not like they are working totally on their own. They're working with a company that is in the business they're trying to get into to get the benefit of that experience.
Absolutely NO way the iPhone sells a million of them in day 1. There might be a million sold by the end of week 1, but no way a million the first day.
I agree with several of the comments above... I wrote my 'dissertation' last night (long post) and still stick by a lot of it, but the post that rebutted a few things was pretty 'spot on' (for you Brits out there). Most Cell phones that are out there today are clunky and not a very favorable user experience. I also agree that the iPod came out with much of the same.. I never will forget the first day a girl in one of my classes brought an iPod into one of my classes and popped those little ear buds in her ears during the last 5 minutes when we had a break.. I said "Cute... but gosh.. expensive and it will only hold 10gb of music?!?!? I have like 60 what would I do with my other 50?" She has just a high school kid and didn't have a good way to answer me, but I will never forget that day... Why? She said "well.. it is a pretty sexy little player and it sounds great". I popped a set of headphones on it that were in my office and I said "Damn.. you're right.. How much did this cost". Of course at the time the iPods were pretty high still and I gasped..
About a year later I owned 5 of them and was writing my PhD Dissertation on the evolution of Podcasting and how it related to Instructional Design for Online Learning... To say that one day had a prolific change in my life would be an understatement. Not many people can say that about a device, but between that and Podcasting my life completely changed. I have just about finished my Dissertation and am only 4-5 months away from being Dr. Bell to all of you! (just kidding...) and we are talking an iPhone... What impact could this device have on EDUCATION!? I see the potential for all SORTS of things, but will enough people ever have it in their hands to actually change education like the iPod did (and if you don't think iPods changed education just keep thinking).
As for MS. I like Vista.. I have a Vista Laptop.. (Of course I have a Macbook and an iMac as well). I like my Zune.. It is a good music player.. (really) I love the music "All you can eat" downloads.. That is a good plan and wish like hell that Apple would take that up. I still listen to my iPod (still have 4 of them) in my car and one of my Shuffles in my ear when I goto bed each night) but I like my Zune too and listen to it most of the day while I work because I have more music on that particular device because I like the downloading of songs better on there.. I like MS Office.. I like MS Project.. I like a lot of stuff from MS. They are a great company. I love my 360 (and I bet a bunch of you Apple fanboys do too!) Apple is doing something that MS doesn't have the balls to do yet and that is enter the cell market. MS will do it one day... The sad thing? They will probably have a bigger market share due to 'perceived' sync issues with the iPhone and Windows.. I am telling you that is going to keep a lot of people from buying it even though we all know it will work with windows..
I love discussion boards.. I spend way to much time reading them..
Lets keep this one going!
Thoughts?
Michael
I agree with several of the comments above... I wrote my 'dissertation' last night (long post) and still stick by a lot of it, but the post that rebutted a few things was pretty 'spot on' (for you Brits out there). Most Cell phones that are out there today are clunky and not a very favorable user experience. I also agree that the iPod came out with much of the same.. I never will forget the first day a girl in one of my classes brought an iPod into one of my classes and popped those little ear buds in her ears during the last 5 minutes when we had a break.. I said "Cute... but gosh.. expensive and it will only hold 10gb of music?!?!? I have like 60 what would I do with my other 50?" She has just a high school kid and didn't have a good way to answer me, but I will never forget that day... Why? She said "well.. it is a pretty sexy little player and it sounds great". I popped a set of headphones on it that were in my office and I said "Damn.. you're right.. How much did this cost". Of course at the time the iPods were pretty high still and I gasped..
About a year later I owned 5 of them and was writing my PhD Dissertation on the evolution of Podcasting and how it related to Instructional Design for Online Learning... To say that one day had a prolific change in my life would be an understatement. Not many people can say that about a device, but between that and Podcasting my life completely changed. I have just about finished my Dissertation and am only 4-5 months away from being Dr. Bell to all of you! (just kidding...) and we are talking an iPhone... What impact could this device have on EDUCATION!? I see the potential for all SORTS of things, but will enough people ever have it in their hands to actually change education like the iPod did (and if you don't think iPods changed education just keep thinking).
As for MS. I like Vista.. I have a Vista Laptop.. (Of course I have a Macbook and an iMac as well). I like my Zune.. It is a good music player.. (really) I love the music "All you can eat" downloads.. That is a good plan and wish like hell that Apple would take that up. I still listen to my iPod (still have 4 of them) in my car and one of my Shuffles in my ear when I goto bed each night) but I like my Zune too and listen to it most of the day while I work because I have more music on that particular device because I like the downloading of songs better on there.. I like MS Office.. I like MS Project.. I like a lot of stuff from MS. They are a great company. I love my 360 (and I bet a bunch of you Apple fanboys do too!) Apple is doing something that MS doesn't have the balls to do yet and that is enter the cell market. MS will do it one day... The sad thing? They will probably have a bigger market share due to 'perceived' sync issues with the iPhone and Windows.. I am telling you that is going to keep a lot of people from buying it even though we all know it will work with windows..
I love discussion boards.. I spend way to much time reading them..
Lets keep this one going!
Thoughts?
Michael
Motorola Sold
Motorola sold 60 million RAZRs in 2.5 years. The total number of cell phones sold last year was just under a billion not the 1.3 billion Ballmer claims. Base on the last 2.5 yrs of cell phone sales, I would say it amounts to close to 2 to 2.5 billion world wide. Also most of those phones were low end phones sold in developing markets like China and India.
Bases on those numbers the RAZR and all it variants was about 2.5% to 3.0%. Clive you were right on with your numbers.
You have to remember when the RAZR came out it was $499 and have been slowly dropping in price to the point that Carriers are now offering it for $29 if you sign a two yr contract.
Lastly, Ballmer is a finance guy, he was no clue on technologies or buying trends of the world masses. He walk into a situation where others knew what was going on and being in the right place at the right time. If he had to bet the future of Microsoft on coming up with one innovations the world recognize as a great product, he should close the doors now.
For the last 4 yrs MS stock has been stagnate, why, becuase they have no clue the the investment world know it. Ballmer hasn't figured it out.
Motorola sold 60 million RAZRs in 2.5 years. The total number of cell phones sold last year was just under a billion not the 1.3 billion Ballmer claims. Base on the last 2.5 yrs of cell phone sales, I would say it amounts to close to 2 to 2.5 billion world wide. Also most of those phones were low end phones sold in developing markets like China and India.
Bases on those numbers the RAZR and all it variants was about 2.5% to 3.0%. Clive you were right on with your numbers.
You have to remember when the RAZR came out it was $499 and have been slowly dropping in price to the point that Carriers are now offering it for $29 if you sign a two yr contract.
Lastly, Ballmer is a finance guy, he was no clue on technologies or buying trends of the world masses. He walk into a situation where others knew what was going on and being in the right place at the right time. If he had to bet the future of Microsoft on coming up with one innovations the world recognize as a great product, he should close the doors now.
For the last 4 yrs MS stock has been stagnate, why, becuase they have no clue the the investment world know it. Ballmer hasn't figured it out.
Why would AT&T roll-out a WiMAX handset? Are they planning to close Cingular and become a Sprint or Verizon MVNO?
AT&T/Cingular are currently upgrading their network to UMTS, and are likely to choose UMTS rev. 8 (the result of the Long Term Evolution project) as their 4G technology. They haven't really been doing anything with WiMAX.
Numbers and Answers
Once again, MS just cares about numbers of installations of their product, marketshare, etc. Notice how Ballmer never talks about things the way Jobs does. Jobs is more of a form follows function kind of guy. Here's the problem, let's create a solution. Phones suck. They all suck. So Jobs is attempting to create a better one. Of course it has to be profitable or it's pointless. But what drives the origination of ideas at Apple is different than MS. Apple is a creator and innovator (yeah, they steal ideas and buy out companies too, I know) and MS is more like a politician. They try to sell you some garbage you think you need based on the current status quo. Short term fixes and solutions. Apple reinvents things.
Once again, MS just cares about numbers of installations of their product, marketshare, etc. Notice how Ballmer never talks about things the way Jobs does. Jobs is more of a form follows function kind of guy. Here's the problem, let's create a solution. Phones suck. They all suck. So Jobs is attempting to create a better one. Of course it has to be profitable or it's pointless. But what drives the origination of ideas at Apple is different than MS. Apple is a creator and innovator (yeah, they steal ideas and buy out companies too, I know) and MS is more like a politician. They try to sell you some garbage you think you need based on the current status quo. Short term fixes and solutions. Apple reinvents things.
I would not say this is not 100% true, Cingular/AT&T are looking at WiMAX, what their final plan is has yet to be seen.
Earthlink is starting to deploy WiMAX right now in the USA, and Apple and Earthlink have a long standing relationship and Apple did say the iPhone will be WiMAX compatiable when it makes sense.
If Apple and Cingular have a 5 yr deal it just goes to say that WiMAX is probably part of that future.
No, it doesn't work like that. Earthlink's activities are irrelevent: Apple has an exclusive deal with Cingular/AT&T for the next five years, regardless of what technologies the iPhone supports it will not be available in an Earthlink version.
Cingular may be "looking at" WiMAX, but no more intently than they're "looking at" UMB. They're a GSM/UMTS shop, and it's improbable they'll make any decisions about what technology to use until November, when UMTS rev. 8 is finalized. Unless UMTS rev. 8 is a serious mess, I can't see why they wouldn't adopt it. The alternatives aren't any better: WiMAX has no standardized upper level services, so is not a drop in replacement for existing cellular mobile telephones, and UMB is... well it's more or less Qualcomm trying to create a migration path for its CDMA2000 customers so they'll continue to buy the technology. However, neither Sprint nor Verizon seem to be biting.
WiMAX is pretty much exclusively used by those wanting to provide mobile Internet service. It makes some sense for the CDMA2000 operators to jump to it given their lack of interest in standards, but no sense for GSM/UMTS operators.
The bottom line: WiMAX from Cingular is improbable to say the least. And Apple has no reason to support WiMAX in the Cingular version of its cellphones for the next five years.
"They may make a lot of money. But..."
my favorite quote ever. There is no "But" Ballmer. If you were any good at your job you would probably realize that your company should be in business to "make a lot of money". Bill must be real proud to have you running his company. Please. Gates should wake up and push this guy out the door. I like Microsoft, and have friends that work there. I want to see them succeed, but this guy is a complete TOOL.
my favorite quote ever. There is no "But" Ballmer. If you were any good at your job you would probably realize that your company should be in business to "make a lot of money". Bill must be real proud to have you running his company. Please. Gates should wake up and push this guy out the door. I like Microsoft, and have friends that work there. I want to see them succeed, but this guy is a complete TOOL.
After the section on the iPhone, Ballmer was questioned on the possibility of a Google phone. Ballmer rose from his seat, threw his chair across the room and shouted "I will f****ng kill Google's phone!"
I LOVE the Ballmer! No one cracks me up more than that stubby-foreheaded Conehead!
Stevie B. please have more interviews so we may learn from your mighty wisdom and foresight!!
I LOVE the Ballmer! No one cracks me up more than that stubby-foreheaded Conehead!
Stevie B. please have more interviews so we may learn from your mighty wisdom and foresight!!
In the end Apple users simply have better technology and thus lead better lives.
Iphone just adds a beautiful phone to that already exquisite experience.
Balmers words can never change the reality of this irrefutable fact.
Iphone just adds a beautiful phone to that already exquisite experience.
Balmers words can never change the reality of this irrefutable fact.